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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

631–640 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#631
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t help that the person who imposed these tariffs was indeed claiming the cost would be borne by foreign countries, and the political party in power is repeating the claim ad nauseam on every channel imaginable. It’s a misleading claim, but OTOH the point of making imports more expensive for Americans is to push them to prefer US made products, and if that happens and imports go down then at some level it’s t…

It won't cost other countries because what is not sold to the US is sold everywhere else.

Not all things are that fungible. Cars intended for the US won’t be sold elsewhere. And in a mature market, no new customers exist elsewhere to sell to.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The titles have rolled. The prediction in Q1 last year was specifically that by this time, the US would be in a deep recession due to tariffs. I can understand that most people do not actually stay with these forecasts. The story hits NBC, you are completely outraged about this forecast made by these economists, the thing never happens, NBC has moved onto next disaster coming round the corner, next outrage. If you wo…

That's a really nice comment but does not bear in any way on what I wrote. The Trump administration has now completed its first year. There are three to go.

Yes, i am saying very directly that the prediction made was made by many (which is the comment you replied to) that tariffs WOULD HAVE ALREADY caused the economy to fall into a deep recession. These predictions were wrong, they were obviously wrong at the time they were made but that didn't stop the breathless coverage about a coming Great Depression.

Whatever happens next is irrelevant, it won't make that prediction correct.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, The age groups who spend the most time on TikTok and Instagram are the least likely to have voted for this administration. There were populist demagogues getting elected before social media and cell phones, too. This isn’t a modern thing. I know everyone wants to use this moment in politics to blame their own pet peev…

The age groups who spend the most time on Facebook feeds though are the most likely to have voted for this administration...

Exactly. The 60 and 70 year olds I spend time with, women especially (not a dig, but an observation), are just as addicted to facebook as the Instagram / TikTok crowd are to those platforms.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#634
post #75

"Tariff" is indeed a beautiful word; one that led the most virulent anti-taxation crowd to passionately support new taxes. It's a fantastic example of how much the choice of words matters.

I'm not sure. If he called them "Freedom Taxes" or "Patriot Taxes" or "Foreigner Taxes" I'm sure the base would have supported them.

That's the beauty of it: the base refuses to even acknowledge that it is a tax, and that it is paid by Americans. The word "tariff" bypasses decades of anti-taxation programming with astonishing ease.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#635

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

> A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in.

"Feelings don't care about your facts." — not Ben Shapiro

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this a bot? Is this someone telling an unpopular truth on an alt account? Is this someone telling a fabrication on an alt account? The best part about Hacker News is that you can't really know. It's a problem inherent to the kind of social space HN is trying to be; open registration, and lax control over abuse of user moderation tools.

Real person. Live in the south. Kamala being a woman had no impact on her election chances. Most people in my circles were big Haley fans. Claiming that half the country wouldn't vote for a woman because Kamala didn't win and couldn't possibly have had any other faults as a candidate is very bot like, however.

The funny part is that most female world leaders are right wing, since right wing voters are more likely to vote for a woman than left wing voters. There are many more left wing female candidates, but those that win elections are mostly right wing.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

My pet theory, one that is borne out by some amount of anecdotal evidence, is that they don't honestly believe. Assuming they're not bots, they were bit by the 2025 cost of living increases just as much as anybody, they know what changed, they know in their gut that Trump is the reason for it. They are just so caught up in their culture war that they believe that shouldering such a burden, at least for a time, is wor…

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

> The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

"Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia."

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple research papers that indicate that this result (in terms of what you think the paper says) is not obvious. Indeed, to think this is the case, you need an extremely superficial understanding of economics based around "rules" that only exist in theory. And, if you read the paper, you will find that evidence. How these work depends on initial conditions that vary and exporters will not react in a cons…

Great points. This paper is a static, partial-equilibrium analysis that knows the price of everything and the value of nothing, which I suspect the NYT will happily run as gospel. The most glaring, disqualifying omission is the disregard for FX adjustments. We have not seen the CNY/USD crash yet , but that is because of MASSIVE currency intervention from China to the tune of $200B+ per month: https://x.com/Brad_Setse…

Static analysis in trade is very dangerous. I have never understood why these models are used. These had massive political consequence in the UK during Brexit, close to 100% of the predictions made by these models failed, and they were taken as truth (in the sense that: a prediction was made, and that was reported in the same way as an economic release). There was no real examination of why these known bad models were used.

Calling it a "deadweight loss" also doesn't seem justified by the evidence. It is extremely unclear whether there is a total economic loss because tariffs, if maintained, will have long-term economic consequences. You can point to countries where that went very badly (South American import substitution in the 50/60s, leading to economic free fall by the 80s) and ones where it went very well. It has always seemed quite unclear to me.

The stuff with Europe is also very odd because what do they think sanctions on Russia are? Not just a tariff, a blockade with no revenue raise. But the people who tell you that tariffs are a tax will tell you that sanctions have no issues.

I don't think that tariffs are good either btw. It just seems to a policy choice that is made in a context that can be either good or bad. Europe has massive barriers to trade internally (despite being in a political and economic union) that has been very expensive and harmful because it reduces competition/competitiveness. At least some of the protectionist measures of Trump and Biden are likely to work because the US is fundamentally quite competitive.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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What's the intersection of Americans who won't vote for a woman presidential candidate and Americans who support MAGA? I imagine it's fairly high. That said, I don't believe there's a single factor that determined the election. A flip in any of a dozen or more factors could have resulted in a different outcome.

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