Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

Post by jimbokun » Wed, Dec 10, 2025, 10:17 PM UTC

abixb wrote: post #443

netsharc wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, like the Bill Gates haters who interpret him talking about reducing the rate of birth in Africa as wanting to kill Africans, you're interpreting it wrong. The graph says horse ownership per person. People probably stopped buying horses, they let theirs retire (well, to be honest, probably also sent to the glue factory), and when they stopped buying new horses, horse breeding programs slowed down.

One could argue that the quality of life per horse went up, even if the total number of horses went down. Lots more horses now get raised in farms and are trained to participate in events like dressage and other equestrian sports.

Post by jimbokun » Wed, Dec 10, 2025, 10:23 PM UTC

palmotea wrote: post #463

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

> And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather from perspective of some kind of economic determinism? Have you ever thought that you would be compared to a gasoline engine and everyone would discuss this juxtaposition from purely economic perspective? One of the many terrible things about software engineers their the tendency to think and speak as if they were some kind o…

Post by jimbokun » Wed, Dec 10, 2025, 10:25 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #462

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

You can kind of separate the technical side of what will likely happen - AI get smarter and can do the jobs - with how we deal with that. Could be heaven like with abundance and no one needs to work, or post apocalyptic dystopia or likely somewhere in the middle. We collectively have a lot of choice on the how we deal with it part. I'm personally optimistic that people will vote in people friendly policies when it co…

Post by jimbokun » Wed, Dec 10, 2025, 10:32 PM UTC

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #483

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I think we have a bunch of people in the United States who see what we elected for leadership and the choices he made to advise him, and they have given up all hope. That despondent attitude is infusing their opinions on everything. But chin up, he's really old, and he doesn't seem very healthy or he'd be out there leading the charge throwing those rallies every weekend of which he used to be so fond. And low informa…

Post by jimbokun » Wed, Dec 10, 2025, 10:40 PM UTC

jack_pp wrote: post #357

ehnto wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I see when companies cut juniors as well. AI cannot replace a junior because a junior has full and complete agency, accountability, and purpose. They retain learning and become a sharper bespoke resource for the business as time goes on. The PM tells them what to do and I give them guidance. If you take away the juniors, you are now asking your seniors to do that work instead which is more expensive and w…

> well I can't leave a task with the LLM and come back to it tomorrow You could actually just do that, leave an agent on a problem you would give a junior, go back on your main task and whenever you feel like it check the agent's work.