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Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

martinalderson.com

631–640 of 744 posts

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly if you were relying on libraries like Leftpad to you probably had no business writing code before AI And if you rely on AI to write that code now you still have no business writing code

Why should I retype something that in my life I have probably already written 10s of times?

Make your own standard library then and import that

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#632
post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have not started working on a new codebase while adopting AI, it may be harder to realize the gains. I switched jobs somewhat recently. At my previous job, where I was on the codebase for years, I knew where the changes should be and what they should look like. So I tried to jump directly to implementation with the AI because I didn't need much help planning and the AI got confused and did an awful job. In a n…

You are discounting his experience with your own, while your example is not remotely relevant to his flask game example.

[deleted]

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#633
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

> Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? Yes. I think it’s practice. I know this sounds ridiculous, but I feel like I have reached a kind of mind meld state with my AI tooling, specifically Claude Code. I am not really consciously aware of having learned anything related to these processes, but I have been all in on this since ChatGPT, and I honestly think my brain has been rewired in a…

> Yes, I know this sounds ridiculous and over-the-top. But I haven’t had this much fun writing software since my 20s.

But...you're not writing it. The culmination of many sites, many people, Stack Overflow, etc. all wrote it through the filtering mechanism being called AI.

You didn't write a damn thing.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock prices. The latter would do very little to support my point, as it doesn't consider future growth trends.

The former does far less to support your point, because it's only indicative of what people expect to happen. It is not actually evidence that their predictions will come true.

I don't have any evidence for how revenue will change in the next quarterly report.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#635
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

EVERY DX survey that comes out (surveying over 20k developers) says the exact same thing. Staff engineers get the most time savings out of AI tools, and their weekly time savings is 4.4 hours for heavy AI users. That's a little more than 10% productivity, so not anywhere close to 10x. What's more telling about the survey results is they are also consistent in their findings between heavy and light users of AI. Staff…

For those surveys to mean anything (for or against AI), we'd have to have an effective measure of developer productivity

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVERY DX survey that comes out (surveying over 20k developers) says the exact same thing. Staff engineers get the most time savings out of AI tools, and their weekly time savings is 4.4 hours for heavy AI users. That's a little more than 10% productivity, so not anywhere close to 10x. What's more telling about the survey results is they are also consistent in their findings between heavy and light users of AI. Staff…

do you have a link to the latest survey? my google-fu is failing me at the moment

The latest survey is here apparently: https://getdx.com/report/ai-assisted-engineering-q4-impact-r....

No idea if signing up gives the full survey for free. We get it through our company paying for DX's services

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#637
post #507

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

It's been my experience that reaching for an LLM is a significant context switch that breaks flow state. Comparable to a monkey entering your office and banging cymbals together for a minute, returning to programming after writing up instructions for an LLM requires a refocusing process to reestablish the immersion you just forfeited. This can be a worthwhile trade with particularly tedious or annoying tasks, but not always.

I suspect that this explains the current bifurcation of LLM usage. Where individuals either use LLMs for everything or use them minimally. With the in-between space shrinking by the day.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sympathies go out to the friend's coworkers. They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. I don't even care about the llm, I just want the confidence you have to assess that any given thing will take N weeks. You say 1-2 weeks.. thats like a big range! Something that "would" take 1 week takes ~2 hours, something that "woul…

> They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. This made me laugh. Fair enough. ;) In terms of the time estimations: if your point is that I don't have hard data to back up my assertions, you're absolutely correct. I was always terrible at estimating how long something would take. I'm still terrible at it. But I agree with th…

> It does feel to me that we're getting into religious believer territory. There are those who have firsthand experience and are all-in (the believers), there are those who have firsthand experience and don't get it (the faithless), and there are those who haven't tried it (the atheists). It's hard to communicate across those divides, and each group's view of the others is essentially, "I don't understand you".

What a total crock. Your prose reminds of of the ridiculously funny Mike Meyers in "The Love Guru".

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#639
post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of apps do you work on?

Regular SaaS products of different kinds, cloud software, hosting software, etc. Really representative of most of the Web-enabled software out there. For every one of them there has been an almost negligible amount of CRUD code, the meat of every one of those apps was very specific business logic. Some were also heavy on the frontend with equal amount of complexity on the backend. As a senior/staff level engineer you…

A fancy CRUD app is still a CRUD app.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. This made me laugh. Fair enough. ;) In terms of the time estimations: if your point is that I don't have hard data to back up my assertions, you're absolutely correct. I was always terrible at estimating how long something would take. I'm still terrible at it. But I agree with th…

Religions are about faith, faith is belief in the absence of evidence. Engineering output is tangible and measurable, objectively verifiable and readily quantifiable (both locally and in terms of profits). Full evidence, testable assertions, no faith required. Here we have claims of objective results, but also admissions we’re not even tracking estimations and are terrible at making them when we do. People are notori…

Here's an example from this morning. At 10:00 am, a colleague created a ticket with an idea for the music plugin I'm working on: wouldn't it be cool if we could use nod detection (head tracking) to trigger recording? That way, musicians who use our app wouldn't need a foot switch (as a musician, you often have your hands occupied).

Yes, that would be cool. An hour later, I shipped a release build with that feature fully functional, including permissions plus a calibration UI that shows if your face is detected and lets you adjust sensitivity, and visually displays when a nod is detected. Most of that work got done while I was in the shower. That is the second feature in this app that got built today.

This morning I also created and deployed a bug fix release for analytics on one platform, and a brand-new report (fairly easy to put together because it followed the pattern of other reports) for a different platform.

I also worked out, argued with random people on HN and walked to work. Not bad for five hours! Do I know how long it would have taken to, for example, integrate face detection and tracking into a C++ audio plugin without assistance from AI? Especially given that I have never done that before? No, I do not. I am bad at estimating. Would it have been longer than 30 minutes? I mean...probably?

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