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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#631

Post by scotty79 »

AngryData wrote: post #610
scotty79 wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When unrest happens the military sides with the ones that give better hopes of keeping the stream of money that funds the army flowing. It sides with the poor only if the powerful (gov) are hopelessly inept at gathering money. If there's a chance that current civilian power can reform and keep collecting the money from the people and funding the army then the army sides with them and help quell the rebellion. Those w…

Im not talking about the military siding with the people, im talking about the military's side not being enough to prevent the people from rising up and taking down whoever is in power. Militaries require logistics, random people do not. Military needs a government or people to follow for direction, masses of angry people do not. Every time a government or military force has decided they were unstoppable or untouchab…

> im talking about the military's side not being enough to prevent the people from rising up and taking down whoever is in power.

That's sheer fantasy.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9AdZVQuITM/?utm_source=ig_we...

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#632

Post by scotty79 »

UltraSane wrote: post #344
scotty79 wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What does it mean in practice to have energy instead of money as currency? Something like Bitcoin. When the progress in miners efficiency stalls any kWh of energy not used for something else will be used to make some amount of bitcoins. If you have energy you can make btc. If you have btc you can give your btc to someone in exchange for their energy so that they give you their energy, instead of using it to mine bi…

That just seems very wasteful when proof-of-stake works.

It's not really wasteful if you use excess energy for mining that you couldn't store because storage is very limited.

The goal is not efficiency. The goal to provide incentive to overbuild the renewables.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#633

Post by scotty79 »

FabHK wrote: post #426
UltraSane wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That just seems very wasteful when proof-of-stake works.

Or even good old centralised distributed systems that do it another 4 to 6 orders of magnitude more efficiently than PoS.

It sounds terrible when you approach it from the point of money. Of course you can do money more efficiently. But if you approach this form the side of energy it's a way to organically tie a value to any energy produced. Even the energy produced at times when production vastly exceeds the demand. And that's going to be most of the energy produced since we need to develop renewables capacity and can't really wait for the storage technologies that lag horribly so we can match the supply the demand.

This is a way to make all energy valuable and providing incentive to build renewables even when 90% of the energy they produce will find no traditional buyer.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#634

Post by mountainriver »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #592
madaxe_again wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even remotely. In LLM land, the progress seems slow the past few years, but a lot has happened under the hood. Elsewhere in AI however progress has been enormous, and many projects are only now reaching the point where they are starting to have valuable outputs. Take video gen for instance - it simply did not exist outside of research labs a few years ago, and now it’s getting to the point where it’s actually use…

> the progress seems slow the past few years, but a lot has happened under the hood. The claim is "exponential" progress, exponential progress never seems "slow" after it has started to become visible. I've worked in the research part of this space, there's neat stuff happening, but we are very clearly in the diminishing returns phase of development.

We continue to see steady progress, look at any benchmark and its basically a linear increase.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#635

Post by mountainriver »

rhetocj23 wrote: post #623
mountainriver wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are private and I can’t make them public. I have no self interest here, I’m an MLE by trade and this technology threatens my job. I had been mostly opposed to vibe coding for a long time, autocomplete was fine but full agentic coding just made a mess. That’s changed now, this stuff is genuinely working on really hard problems.

So you have nothing to show. Typical

You can go use Codex on high and try it yourself, but I'm sure you'll prove yourself right

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#636

Post by mountainriver »

acdha wrote: post #519
mountainriver wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is all society as long as they have access, and they do. Even if the big labs get more closed off, open source is right there and won’t die. AI increases everyone’s knowledge and ultimately productivity. It’s on every person the learn to leverage it. The dynamics don’t need to change, we just move faster and smarter

> AI increases everyone’s knowledge and ultimately productivity. It’s on every person the learn to leverage it. The dynamics don’t need to change, we just move faster and smarter This is incomplete in key ways: it only increases knowledge if people practice information literacy and validate AI claims, which we know is an unevenly-distributed skill. Similarly, by making it easier to create disinformation and pollute p…

> This is incomplete in key ways: it only increases knowledge if people practice information literacy and validate AI claims, which we know is an unevenly-distributed skill. Similarly, by making it easier to create disinformation and pollute public sources of information, it can make people less knowledgeable at the same time they believe they are more informed. Neither of those problems are new, of course, but they’re moving from artisanal to industrial scale.

Totally agree with this

>The more successfully businesses are able to remove or deprofessionalize jobs, the smaller the pool will be of people who can afford to build skills, compete with those businesses, or contribute to open source software

I'm mixed on this, ultimately its the responsibility of individuals to adapt. AI makes people way more capable than they have ever been. It's on them to make something of it

> but it’s worse for society since it accelerates the process of centralizing money and power.

I'm not sure this is true, it enables individuals like they never have been before. Yes there are the model infrastructure providers, but they are in a race to the bottom

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#637

Post by amscanne »

MangoToupe wrote: post #248
amscanne wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you being objective or just romanticizing the past? Just to use your example: YouTube is filled with talented writers and storytellers, who would have never been able to share their content in the past. *And* the traditional media complex is richer than ever. I don’t think average quality matters. Just what you want to consume. If anything, I’d be more open to the opposite argument. Media is so much richer and mo…

Youtube has some marginal value, but I'm not sure "storytellers" bring a materially positive impact (and I reject the "richer" aspect outright). We had libraries in the 90s and they didn't force you to watch ads.

That’s my point. We still have libraries! And most have online lending programs, so you can access way more ad-free books than you ever could have in 90s. How is this not richer?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#638

Post by [deleted] »

Retric wrote: post #178
amscanne wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you being objective or just romanticizing the past? Just to use your example: YouTube is filled with talented writers and storytellers, who would have never been able to share their content in the past. *And* the traditional media complex is richer than ever. I don’t think average quality matters. Just what you want to consume. If anything, I’d be more open to the opposite argument. Media is so much richer and mo…

I was trying to be objective which is why I didn’t try to compare individual shows. Thus average production quality seems like a useful metric. There’s currently a handful of “traditional media/streaming” shows with absolutely crazy budgets today and if you happen to like them then that’s great. However, if you don’t things quickly fall off a cliff in terms of production quality. The same is true of YouTube. The qual…

[deleted]

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#639

Post by rhetocj23 »

mountainriver wrote: post #635
rhetocj23 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you have nothing to show. Typical

You can go use Codex on high and try it yourself, but I'm sure you'll prove yourself right

ZZZ show something or stop posting fella.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#640

Post by rhetocj23 »

eastbound wrote: post #547
taormina wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxi-by-app existed pre-Uber, the innovation was making the taxi actual show up. Austin had the apps, and I would order one, and the taxis would get distracted on the way to my house and pick up other fares, so I couldn't go where I wanted. They had every chance to not be outcompeted by Uber, but they couldn't stop being taxis. And, here we are.

> the innovation was making the taxi actual show up Uber regularly doesn’t show up, just playing with “4… 3… 6… minutes left”. I always have to wait half an hour at a certain location, with a message “Just book a few minutes before your trip.” I’ve had a friend miss his flight because of Uber not showing up!

Im not sure why you got downvoted for that.

Ive noticed similar shenanigans with Uber eats - they are definitely playing around with stuff to increase profitability its clear as day.

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