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AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

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Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#631

Post by Mountain_Skies »

daneel_w wrote: post #614
zarzavat wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably the opposite. I very much doubt that the factory would continue to operate if the US refused to defend Taiwan. The factory gives Taiwan a huge amount of leverage.

Of course it would continue to operate. The Chinese division of Arm went rogue and basically captured the entire operation from within. USA has both the engineering expertise and the incentive to do the same with an entire chip fab, if push came to shove. https://semianalysis.com/2021/08/27/the-semiconductor-heist-...

For how much longer will the United States have that expertise? Both major political parties seem intent on becoming completely reliant on importing labor, both blue collar and white collar, while giving domestic labor the finger. Boomers are already retiring by the millions and Gen-X aren't all that far behind. Outsource mania and its cheap visa labor twin had been growing since the 1990s so the younger generations have been shaped in that environment. Does the United States really have that expertise or does it simply have a bunch of guests with that expertise? Should a country have to hope that it can pander to those guests enough for them to stay and be loyal (and possibly disloyal to their homelands)? Doesn't seem very stable in the long run.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#632

Post by Mountain_Skies »

tarkin2 wrote: post #576
fishsticks89 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

If something happens to Taiwan, the USA will have given a huge military advantage to its biggest adversary. It's going to take decades for the USA to catch up with Taiwan, and once China has its grip on the fabs they'll only further advance them. In an existential crisis, the chances of Taiwan's leadership doing a deal with China when it's military protector retreats from its former declarations is in no way low. It'…

How did that come to be? The US used to be the world leader in chip manufacturing and that wasn't all that long ago. Why was something so critical given away so freely?

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#633

Post by steveBK123 »

zuminator wrote: post #548
guywithahat wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically my only opposition to US chips is that we’re less liable to protect Taiwan if China invades

I think realistically the US is unfortunately never going to protect Taiwan. There's no way I see it getting into an unwinnable hot war with China over territory so close to the mainland. If China sent troops to secure the Taiwanese fabs, how could the US possibly dislodge them without destroying the thing they want to protect? The focus on the CHIPS Act by both recent administrations seems an admission that they don…

All the best to war games seem pretty bleak given the relative salience of the issue between US & China.

Being a small island it’s much more of a zero sum / all or nothing fight than say Ukraine where at some point they can agree on a line on the map for Putin to walk away with a territorial partial win.

Lot of headwind for US between ship building, distance, whether Japan allows usage of bases, total manpower, Chinese ship killer missiles, authoritarian dictatorships willingness to throw manpower into meat grinders, etc.

Not that it’s a slam dunk for China either - beach landings are hard, and their war machine is largely unproven.

The most likely outcome is Taiwan or US destroy the fabs in event of invasion.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#634

Post by azernik »

blitzar wrote: post #619
fishsticks89 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

If something happens to the US, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. For the rest of the world, Taiwan with a "China Risk" looks like a safer bet than the USA.

The way to reduce the risk is to diversify. Taiwan with a China risk and the US with a "US risk" is much safer than either alone.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#635

Post by motorest »

avhception wrote: post #342

If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap.

> If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap.

No, that is not the cost of keeping "the value" within western economies. It would be the cost of granting the US a leverage against the collective west. The US proved to be a very unreliable and outright hostile partner. At this point, it is not clear whether the US is more hostile to the collective west than the likes of China.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#636

Post by ksec »

motorest wrote: post #635
avhception wrote: post #342

If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap.

> If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap. No, that is not the cost of keeping "the value" within western economies. It would be the cost of granting the US a leverage against the collective west. The US proved to be a very unreliable and outright hostile partner. At this point, it is not clear whether the US is more hostile to…

US has been a reliable partner post WWII for 95%+ of the time. Making Trump administration representing 100+ years of US history isn't exactly a fair comparison.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#637

Post by bluGill »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #578
kennyadam wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was a stated goal of the EU - peace through trade.

How did that work out?

Do not confuse imperfection for not working. There has been significant peace, despite the continued existence of wars.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#638

Post by bluGill »

LinXitoW wrote: post #579
Nevermark wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that democracies make mistakes, isn't an argument against dictators having more carte blanche to make mistakes. Any form of government is going to make mistakes.

By your very own logic, I could argue that dictators have more carte blanche to make correct choices, where democracies are mired down by compromises and too many cooks in the kitchen.

The possibility exists, but the reality is very different.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#639

Post by speeder »

ksec wrote: post #636
motorest wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap. No, that is not the cost of keeping "the value" within western economies. It would be the cost of granting the US a leverage against the collective west. The US proved to be a very unreliable and outright hostile partner. At this point, it is not clear whether the US is more hostile to…

US has been a reliable partner post WWII for 95%+ of the time. Making Trump administration representing 100+ years of US history isn't exactly a fair comparison.

If you consider all US "friends", that is NOT the case. And not a Trump thing either, or even a Republican thing. USA is quite happy in screwing with "friends", if it will benefit some random lobby.

There is a quite long history of USA doing coups, sabotage, and so on, against its own "friends".

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#640

Post by motorest »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #591
adastra22 wrote: post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. So mission accomplished? And before anyone says it’s because of nukes or superpower protection or whatever, there has been plenty of wars on the periphery of the EU during this time. The balkans, Cyprus, Egypt, etc.

>There used to be open war between European countries every 30 years or so. That hasn’t happened. I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU? It clearly didn't even though EU was buying shit tonnes of gas from Russia, and Russia was buying shit tonne of aerospace parts and stuff from Ukraine. War still happened. [..edited out the Yugoslavia argument..] All the proof shows "peace through trade" d…

> I meant how did that ensure peace between Ukraine, Russia and EU?

There lies the source of your confusion. The EU was designed to prevent wars within Europe, not between outside members. Do you think that NATO bombing Kadafi represents a failure of the EU's mission?

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