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My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

gatesnotes.com

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Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#631
post #573
post #563

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> There's always something to learn from everyone. Elon reiterated one thing frequently - "We have to get to Mars soon because I don't want to be dead before it happens" I understand the idea of learning from everyone, even those whose values I strongly disagree with. But after learning about everything Elon has done in the public sphere, would this statement be more likely just narcissism rather than a deep and insp…

That doesn’t really matter though? The end result is we’ll get to Mars faster than we’d otherwise do.

[dead]

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#633

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The Red Cross is not equipped to make effective use of all that money at once

Says who? They can (ethically) invest it and fund programs off a 5%-8% or better return. They can find new things to do. They can donate some of it into health research that is currently under-funded.

These are things that the Gates Foundation does currently and the Red Cross does not (at the scale of the Gates Foundation).

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to love Gates or everything the foundation does to recognize that putting billions toward global health and poverty is way better than setting up a dynasty or letting it sit in investments

> letting it sit in investments Depends on investments. Arguably tech advances are more effective for alleviating hunger than direct food donations long term.

What companies would you invest in if you had a billion dollars and wanted to reduce global hunger?

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#636
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He can have other motivations. Between 2020, 2024, Mackenzie Bezos & Laurene Powell Jobs, the deeply unimpressive philanthropy of the Buffett children, and his own divorce, a very rich philanthropist has excellent reasons to aim for the foundation being liquidated in his lifetime, and not handed off to administrators like, yes, the Ford Foundation or Harvard... (And then, of course, given his enthusiasm for AI, there…

I'm an AI skeptic when it comes to business cases. I think AI is great at getting to average and the whole point of a business is that you're paying them to do better than average. But I think current AI (not where it might be in a few months or years) is absolutely amazing for disadvantaged people. Access to someone who's average is so freaking cool if you don't already have it. Used correctly it's a free math tutor…

I know a few of the leaders designing and developing Microsoft’s AI applications for the Gates Foundation.

I think you’re on the right track, and, alongside the scale of service (reaching more people and more topics with an average level of advice or recognition), there’s a second component to it: scale of analysis. The newly possible solutions that AI advances have created include more than those famous models that answer broad prompts with art, copy, or code.

They also include focused, sometimes incomprehensible tasks which can only be done at an impactful scale due to the creation of deep learning and advances in compute-inexpensive language understanding, computer vision, and audio analysis:

A network of affordable, durable, solar powered, LoRa meshed audio sensors analyzed by a model to diagnose changes in the biodiversity of the Amazon and other rainforests (via ambient bird and animal calls across thousands of species). Visual analysis done on a cheap camera network estimates herd sizes of larger, silent animals.

A model that analyzes satellite imagery to evaluate major shifts in the industrial use of land, including tracking the national development of solar farms to evaluate nations receiving new energy grants.

A social analysis bot that tracks the rapid introduction of propaganda narratives or intentional agitation by foreign state actors (Russian bot farms), including building a map of associated IPs. Sadly, the social networks basically shrugged when given this data, so Msft gave it to LEAs.

These things are being done at a scale that would be incomprehensible to an organization of people.

Scale of analysis tasks are still, IMO the smartest use of AI today, despite the fashionable trend of GPT and the promise of AGI. A few models to spark ideas:

Recognition tasks with a dictionary too deep for human experts to grok when scaled up - like identifying thousands of wildlife

Recognition tasks with a timescale too rapid or sudden for human attention - Amazon Prime Vision predicting a QB sack in a football game before it happens

Recognition tasks when human vigilance or sensitivity would miss an occasional or slight occurrence - measuring eccentricities in electrical signals, vibrations, etc. to predict the failure of industrial equipment

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The antivax movement has been demonising the medical side of his foundation for decades at this point - I'd wager the folks who weren't born in the 90s are more likely to have heard about that than about the genesis of Windows

The antivax movement is a tiny number of fringe wackos. Normal people are not against normal vaccines, even if some of them had concerns about one recent one in particular.

They are a fringe movement that landed on the incredible PR machine that was "mommy bloggers", parlayed that over into wellness influencers on tiktok/instagram, and figured out how to tie themselves into the web of other conspiracy theories that all fringe wackos believe...

Ever met a flat earther, a Qanon, or a chemtrails guy? I'll put good money they also believe that vaccines cause autism

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#638

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Lobbying is ugly, but essential in the system we live in. You have to be pragmatic about it :(

That depends on what you are lobbying for. I don't think we have to treat all lobbying the same.

The 1st Amendment says it's a fundamental right

Re: My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth

#639
post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> letting it sit in investments Depends on investments. Arguably tech advances are more effective for alleviating hunger than direct food donations long term.

What companies would you invest in if you had a billion dollars and wanted to reduce global hunger?

Anything in energy production, manufacturing, or bioresearch. Probably add education in these areas as well.
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