Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown • Hacker News Board

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#631

Post by ewzimm » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:22 AM UTC

Const-me wrote: post #592

ewzimm wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a good comment, but rather than tens of millions of new citizens, they would get tens of millions of new insurgents. Nearly the whole population of Ukraine is involved in the war effort in some way, and it would be impossible to break this completely. The only thing that could be given to Russia with the conquest of Ukraine is the option to turn into Afghanistan instead of North Korea.

In 1922 Russians have won the war against Ukrainian People's Republic. After 20 years, vast majority of Ukrainians who opposed the occupation were dead, scared to death, refugees in other countries, or in forced labor camps in Siberia and other remote places of USSR. I'm afraid Russians have already started re-implementing elements of the same 100 years old strategy: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/01/forcible-trans…

This is a terrible truth, but the situation has changed in this war because everyone is contributing in organized volunteer centers. The amount of coordination is orders of magnitude greater than was possible a hundred years ago. I don’t think such a large society has ever been so fully engaged in a single purpose in history. Because the strategy is so new, it would be a mistake to assume that old tactics will work against it in the same way they have in the past. Nothing is guaranteed, but I wouldn’t bet against the Ukrainian people even in the worst circumstances.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#632

Post by liketochill » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:31 AM UTC

kjkjadksj wrote: post #267

beambot wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think the government could run them better...?

You could run them exactly how they are structured today if you want. Youd reap savings by not having shareholder profits to maintain and could use that money that would otherwise be wasted on luxury spending for major shareholders for more R and D.

Without shareholders to answer to costs would increase out of control and productivity would plummet. It would become like a government

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#633

Post by liketochill » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:33 AM UTC

kjkjadksj wrote: post #538

DeathArrow wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean like they did in communist countries and had a huge success at killing their economies?

I was thinking more along the lines of when the us government centrally planned the economy and won a world war as a result.

Committing to purchase X quantity of Y from a factory that already exists in a competitive market to make Z is different from removing the need for the company to make ends meet

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#634

Post by rnk » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:34 AM UTC

dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #520

lossolo wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things changed. Most war games/simulations around Taiwan that I'm aware of were lost by US or stalemated. "US Could Lose 1000 Fighter Jets, Its Entire Global Fleet If It Goes To War Against China Over Taiwan"[1] 1. https://eurasiantimes.com/us-could-lose-over-900-fighter-jet...

Fundamentally the access to resources would make defending Taiwan exceptionally challenging. The real answer to the war though is disconnect our supply chain dependencies from China and let them sink into economic chaos, and that is easily winnable and already in work.

It's not easily winnable. It will take more than a decade to move so much manufacturing to other places. Many things will just stay there in China as long as they can.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#635

Post by tuatoru » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:37 AM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #579

tuatoru wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahead of time.

Just like we did with Ukraine?

Ukraine wasn't blockaded.

Taiwan does have fairly good stocks of weapons and ammo. It's also great terrain for fighting a defensive guerilla war. It'd be China's roleplay of "Russia in Afghanistan".

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#636

Post by rnk » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:41 AM UTC

cromwellian wrote: post #598

mywittyname wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has recently developed a low-altitude, hyper-sonic missile platform (DF-ZF) for which the USA doesn't have a great defense against. And this platform is specifically designed to attack carrier groups. THAAD can theoretically stop these missiles but the range for doing so is extremely limited due to the speed (up to Mach 10) and low altitude these missiles fly at.

These are not true hypersonic cruise missiles (e.g. a SCRAMJet), instead they are ballistic missiles with an unpowered hypersonic glider warhead. Thus, they aren't too dissimilar from the way ICBMs work for missile defense with EKVs being needed to intercept. The intercept speed of EKVs IIRC is over Mach 25. Thus, the interception goal would be to get them in their boost phase, or mid-course phase, rather than the te…

I'm sure China would manage to sink some carriers if there was an all out assault with all their capabilities, that is one of their key goal. Nothing will be invulnerable. They'll have some other weapons no one knew about. But what will the US do then. Will we stage weapons in other countries around China, increasing the danger of a real world war? Will we manage to build bases on Taiwan that can be protected somehow? I hope I never find out.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#637

Post by daemoens » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:42 AM UTC

porknubbins wrote: post #619

steve_taylor wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s quite the gamble. If a competitor develops a 5nm capability, Taiwan and TSMC are both screwed. The fact that only TSMC in Taiwan has this capability makes Taiwan a jucier target for the CCP. All this talk of reunification may be little more than a power grab. Control the best semiconductors, control the world.

What is TSMC/Taiwan’s unique capability? Aren’t ASML in Europe the ones making cutting edge EUV machines that drive process shrinks? I genuinely don’t know but I assume TSMC is mostly just good at scaling the production up economically.

Doing it economically is still incredibly challenging, and there's a reason why they're so far ahead of everybody else.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#638

Post by rnk » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:42 AM UTC

gonzo41 wrote: post #127

gtirloni wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is fighting its own fight but it's far from alone.

Yes, but I think America will walk back it's current hawkish defense posture around going head to head with china over Taiwan over the next 10 years. If they get into a fight, I expect the US to supply arms and money but not soldiers or marines. This posture change will keep pace broadly with the American domestic chip fab industry.

I don't think you are right. Only if the pro-authoritarian Republicans seize power in the US. Trump, or others. The same factors that lead to Republicans wanting to help Russia could ultimately come to sway in Chinese policy in the US.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#639

Post by AtlasBarfed » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:43 AM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #522

iepathos wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The western world would not be compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan. We'd only need to provide money and weapons to Taiwan (rank #21 military in the world) to hold off China (#3) indefinitely given the fact that Taiwan is incredibly difficult to invade due to the barrier the mountain ridges form around it and the narrow straight leading to it for a sea attack. It's a natural fortress. Look at the ongoing failur…

How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?

The Chinese navy can't blockade an air force, and we would sell Taiwan an air force.

Taiwan between missiles and air force elements would be uninvadable. The only way to control Taiwan is to land a quarter million soldiers or more.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#640

Post by tuatoru » Wed, Oct 19, 2022, 2:46 AM UTC

SkyMarshal wrote: post #577

tuatoru wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahead of time.

They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.

I hope the US is ready to go with orbital kinetic energy weapons. Ten thousand or so projectiles, each made of 50 kilograms of tungsten, raining down at multiple kilometers per second, would likely...suppress...any attempted blockade.

"Star wars" is feasible with reusable launch to orbit vehicles.