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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#631

Post by mixedbit »

fny wrote: post #290
vintagedave wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So for non-finance-experts, what should we be doing with our money? Investing in what? Keeping in the bank? It sounds from your comment like there is _nothing_ that won't be devalued, even gold. Is real estate worthwhile? (Note: I am in the EU not US.)

I actually don't have a good answer for this. Not financial advice. Talk to a fiduciary. The problem with inflation is that you need to protect yourself before the fact, and at this point, it's difficult to read to what extend the fed will respond with rate hikes and how much inflation we get going forward. In my personal view, it would be stupid to hike to 10% since that will also cut off the needed supply response:…

Very low interest rates and high asset prices indicate that 2020s can be another lost decade for investing that follows the great decade of 2010s. 2000s was also a lost decade, and unfortunate thing about it was that even if you managed to time the bear market perfectly and entered at the very low in 2002, the decade would still be lost to you, because the market in 2009 was below 2002 lows.

Re: How This Ends

#632

Post by raffraffraff »

pmorici wrote: post #605
fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

Tesla is a poor example of speculative tech. From 2019 to present they went from losing money to substantial and growing profitability. Better example would be things like Peloton, Beyond Meat, or Robinhood who all had sky high stock prices and have yet to turn a profit.

I don't understand the US stock market, re: Beyond Meat. It's a fucking recipe. Where I live in Ireland there a dozen different fake-meat brands, and they're even getting competition from supermarket "own brand" products (burgers, sausages etc). Don't get me wrong, beyond meat isn't a bad product, but how the hell is a recipe and a few business deals worth IPO and wild speculation? What do they have beyond, uh, fake meat recipe?

Re: How This Ends

#633

Post by somebodythere »

simonebrunozzi wrote: post #609
fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

> Bonds will be wrecked Why? Also, isn't it in contrast with: > it's actually a really good deal to buy bonds when they yield north of 10% (if we get there).

It's not in contrast. They are saying bonds will be wrecked (prices go down, yields go up), causing them to become a good deal in the future.

Re: How This Ends

#634

Post by simonebrunozzi »

somebodythere wrote: post #633
simonebrunozzi wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bonds will be wrecked Why? Also, isn't it in contrast with: > it's actually a really good deal to buy bonds when they yield north of 10% (if we get there).

It's not in contrast. They are saying bonds will be wrecked (prices go down, yields go up), causing them to become a good deal in the future.

Ah, got it.

Re: How This Ends

#635

Post by ajsnigrutin »

wombat-man wrote: post #537
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ukraine war is in Europe so what... A country has a minority, minority wants to separate, the main country won't let them, and fights happen between the main country and the minority, a big player steps in and destroys the main country to "save the minority" (and gain whatever their geopolitical interest was). Kosovo, ukraine, same shit, different players. > The current situations are caused by politicians but poli…

>so what... A country has a minority, minority wants to separate, the main country won't let them, and fights happen between the main country and the minority, a big player steps in and destroys the main country to "save the minority" (and gain whatever their geopolitical interest was). Kosovo, ukraine, same shit, different players. This... almost works for the crimea situation years ago but Russia is now just attemp…

I mean... nato bombed whole (what was then left of) yugoslavia, including civilian targets and destroyed civil infrastructure, to make the country give up the southern part (kosovo)... they even bombed a tobacco factory in Niš and the national TV station in Belgrade which have nothing to do with kosovo, and threw cluster bombs on residential areas "just because". So yeah... putin is basically doing the same to destroy the military infrastructure, and is now taking over the russian minority regions.

The only real difference is propaganda.... US was "bombing for peace" ( https://content.time.com/time/magazine/archive/covers/1995/1... ), and the current RUS-UA propaganda is basically a giant shitshow, where by reading the media, russia is losing every day, and the fighters from azovstal are being "evacuated" (...by russia... as prisoners of war... but the word used was "evacuated").

Re: How This Ends

#636

Post by SgtBastard »

noduerme wrote: post #623
rcpt wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For young people betting on the far future looks just as crazy as GME calls

Yeah, I get that. And that's natural. But if a huge population swell is accustomed to treating the market as a get-rich-quick casino, the market stops serving its purpose and I guess we're in for a really bad series of shocks.

The scary thing for me is the 2nd order effects of this activity as companies try to act increasingly like meme stocks to boost share price and abandon all pretence of P/E ratios and profitability.

Re: How This Ends

#637

Post by mercy_dude »

fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

After this episode, I strongly believe Fed should be ended. They have established a very poor track record on managing monetary policy and consequences and at this point basically have zero public trust. Since Greenspan Fed has been an absolute disaster. They hiked too little, too late. Now there is no such thing as soft landing as they are espousing just as their messaging around the whole transitory inflation thing.

Institutions such as Fed are now completely detached from their mandate and instead under bureaucratic capture devoid of any meritocracy. There is a revolving door between Fed officials and Banks/capital management firms. Bernanke, Powell, Kashkari, Yellen, Brainard - these are poster children of corrupt kleptocracy with revolving door arrangements between Fed and firms like Citadel, Goldman, Pimco. At least Bernanke had economic background. Powell doesn’t even have so. And his messaging has been super confusing with very little forward guidance which constantly confuses the market. I am not sure what qualifications even they attach to these utterly detestable individuals working for Goldman, Citadel, Pimco, and Brooking when they hire them. Oh let me guess, they work for the same people that fund our executive and legislative branch officials.

Re: How This Ends

#638

Post by cbames89 »

Nagyman wrote: post #415
chmod600 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that local zoning is a problem, but I've seen a trend to try to turn it into the wild west. I'm not sure people building duplexes in R1 is really a solution. It seems like we need more medium density in commercial areas (e.g. four stories of apartments on top of one floor of commercial). That could bring down rents and improve quality of life, and improve the suburbs as well. If you drive by a poorly-maintain…

I've heard the idea to zone for one level above the average in an area, to avoid the wild west situation. Doubtful that would fly with some very rich single family neighbourhoods near cities, but perhaps it's too late for the gradual re-zoning and a more blunt approach is necessary. Aside... where the heck is tech in building housing faster? Where's the prefab and automated assembly? Too many building regulations? En…

Here's a tech companies few I know of:

-www.botbuilt.com - (W21) -Canvas -Built -AutoVol -https://www.diamondage3d.com/ -Entekra -Promise Robotics -Icon -Rent my backyard (YC)

Re: How This Ends

#639

Post by kif »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #635
wombat-man wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>so what... A country has a minority, minority wants to separate, the main country won't let them, and fights happen between the main country and the minority, a big player steps in and destroys the main country to "save the minority" (and gain whatever their geopolitical interest was). Kosovo, ukraine, same shit, different players. This... almost works for the crimea situation years ago but Russia is now just attemp…

I mean... nato bombed whole (what was then left of) yugoslavia, including civilian targets and destroyed civil infrastructure, to make the country give up the southern part (kosovo)... they even bombed a tobacco factory in Niš and the national TV station in Belgrade which have nothing to do with kosovo, and threw cluster bombs on residential areas "just because". So yeah... putin is basically doing the same to destro…

The difference being Serbia committed genocide whereas Ukraine was just minding its own business.

Re: How This Ends

#640

Post by shrikant »

ac29 wrote: post #595
djbusby wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bad, wrong link, I've updated.

Your current link says "Credit card balances declined by $15 billion"

> "Credit card balances declined by $15 billion, in line with seasonal trends typically seen at the start of the year, but are still $71 billion higher than in 2021:Q1, representing a substantial year-over-year increase."
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