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I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

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Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#631

Post by astrange »

yarky wrote: post #613
LodeOfCode wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even with Bayes' theorem, if your prior is zero, you can ignore any evidence - no matter how strong - that doesn't absolutely require the hypothesis to be true.

That’s why they say Bayesians can’t be atheists by definition. At least that’s how all atheists in my stats 101 class starting calling themselves agnostic. Another way to put it I learnt in a finance class : financial models behave alright, the problem comes from our lack of imagination, i.e. assigning a null probability to a future event :/

Bayesians are atheists, they just happen to believe in Roko's Basilisk, which obviously is nothing like a reinvention of the devil. Remember not to think of it since we can't prove it won't torture an infinite number of clones of you forever!

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#632

Post by bmitc »

agotterer wrote: post #513

I have preschool aged kids in Long Island. They have been to class for 3 days in the past 5 weeks. Every time they return to school there’s another student or teacher who tests positive and the class is closed for 10 days. Last year they missed 8 weeks of school. The impact is detrimental to the children and incredibly challenging for parents.

I'm super worried about all this. We all grew up hearing the stories about the country mobilizing to take on WWII and such. Whether those stories are fully accurate or applicable or not, I feel dismayed we can't even mobilize against a virus. We're going to have multiple generations who basically missed out on several years of education and will have an even greater distrust of institutions due to living in the wake of those institutions failing. These generations are growing up in a time of community disarray. It feels like nothing is working in this country and the world at large. Meanwhile, the capitalist machine is eating the country and world alive.

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#633

Post by [deleted] »

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #243
disambiguation wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The evidence that child activity affects the spread of covid among adults is thin. > Data now suggest that many changes to school routines are of questionable value in controlling the virus’s spread. Some researchers are skeptical that school closures reduce Covid cases in most instances. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/04/briefing/american-childre...

The evidence is always nice and comfortable as long as YOU aren't the one being affected by it. I contracted COVID from my kid, who got it from another kid in her class who went to school for 3 days after a positive test because that kid wasn't showing symptoms and their parents had nobody to watch them.

[deleted]

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#634

Post by astrange »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #399
sylens wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't fault any schools for struggling from March 2020 to June 2020, being thrown into the pandemic and remote learning with no warning. But I was absolutely astonished to see that most administrators took the summer of 2020 off, assuming that everybody would be back in school that fall and things would be normal. They wasted several months of time that could've been spent planning contingencies and how remote lear…

The other thing is the FDA intentionally delayed approving vaccines for 5-11 year olds till well after the school year start. At the same time the CDC was pushing hopium that vaccines alone would solve the problem. Trying to dangle normalcy in front of people to entice the nimrods to get vaxed. Same time conservative political leaders are using the issue as a political football.

Vaccines do get pretty close to solving it, ie it doesn't appear there are any other humanly possible solutions more effective than vaccines.

(It is impossible to avoid being exposed to omicron or to get rid of it. Social distancing, lockdowns, etc, won't help this one. Vaccinating yourself/N95s/Pavloxid will help exposure not /matter/ though.)

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#635

Post by astrange »

jpster wrote: post #628
bsder wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Omicron is roughly as contagious as chicken pox. Remember what happened when a single child got chicken pox before the vaccine? There was never a question that everybody was about to get chicken pox--the only thing you could do was manage the timeframe. Before the vaccine, people would have chicken pox parties so all the children were exposed simultaneously and everybody could get it over with. With Omicron, it's sim…

New variants have followed Omicron. And that will continue to happen. They may be more benign or less benign than what we’ve seen so far. But I keep hearing the assumption of “definitely mild”. I’m not sure the science is so definitive on that point.

That will not necessarily continue to happen, at least not soon. Once you've been exposed to omicron (+ vaxed or exposed to original/delta) a new variant has to be very different from both omicron and delta. And this isn't the flu; it only has so far it can mutate.

However, it's impossible to get rid of it because it infects animals and we're not going to vaccinate them.

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#636

Post by astrange »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #611
olliej wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a lab leak. Seriously shut up with this conspiracy nonsense.

Playing devil's advocate...It could be a lab leak (I've seen conflicting stories, some seemingly reputable), but I agree it doesn't matter if it is or isn't...and it leans (more into conspiracy territory than not) what matters is there's this cat, and it's out of the bag, and vaccines protect against it, Ivermectin does jack shit and other 'cures' are bullshit unless sanctioned by the broader medical community (Pfize…

Ivermectin, being very effective against worms, is helpful if you have both worms and covid - that's the reason some studies saw it working and some didn't.

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#637

Post by astrange »

ageofwant wrote: post #587
autarch wrote: post #268

Freddie de Boer just wrote something on his Substack about this - https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/many-kids-dont-have-a-w... The quick takeaway is that school is that for the most vulnerable kids, school is about a lot more than education. Taking school away from those kids can be much more damaging than many people realize. It seems to me like that right strategy would be to just say something like: We encourag…

School is not supposed to be daycare for the economy...

Yes it is. School, along with the other things it does, is a public daycare service for children aged 5-18. That's one of the main reasons public school is good.

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#638

Post by astrange »

paul7986 wrote: post #602
paul7986 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

give kids the chance to choose to go to school or not ... most won't go and then outside of learning the biggest benefit of socializing/making freinds/fully enjoy being human which to me is with others is lost. People at my job have given the same choose and really no one goes in. COVID is scourge to the world ... whose is to blame for it? Does any one country benefit from it? What's going on with Covid in China ...…

Just getting downvoted yet no one is saying why!?!

You type like a grandparent texting. Why so many ellipses?

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#639

Post by astrange »

llimos wrote: post #622
cipheredStones wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's minutiae to be concerned when someone who just tested positive for covid is talking to you with their mask down?

Yes, because for schoolkids, Omicron is literally a cold, if that. The other variants, call it a bad cold. The only reason to stop them catching it is to stop them spreading it. Had someone three years ago been that concerned about someone with a cold, yes, that would be minutiae.

It's about as bad as a flu, but that's quite bad. People underestimate the flu because they confuse it with a cold.

Re: I am a New York City public high school student. The situation is beyond control

#640

Post by astrange »

starkd wrote: post #518
kixiQu wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing high school students never live in multigenerational households, right? Or otherwise have family members at high risk?

When a virus is endemic, it means everyone will get it. Which means most of these precautions are ultimately worthless - other than to flatten the curve and relieve the burden on services. But oh, how long have we been "flattening the curve" now?

The reason to flatten it now is that we'll have a much more effective treatment (pavloxid) in a month or two.
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