Priors matter here, as we have no good data to actually verify or refute the issue, because Chinese gov't won't release the early data for scientific community at large around the world to analyze. So you can only rely on:
- do I trust the WHO
- do I trust the CCP
I don't really trust either - but this is just my opinion, based on my interpretation of historical events and evidence. We are all adults here, we can choose to agree or disagree - that's what makes forums and free speech really work.
Some of my reasons for my choice to not trust the CCP:
The Chinese government has numerous reports of it conducting human rights abuses against Uighurs and other populations (Falun Gong, etc). There is constant state denial, but in my eyes, the evidence is compelling. Let's not play the "oh but other countries do this too" - other countries are not relevant to the issue at hand, and my opinion on them is similarly irrelevant here.
If you want to be absolutely pedantic, sure, we have no evidence to conclusively say anything - we also can't say evolution is correct, but it's the most likely theory given prior evidence. Note that my original post says that we have no smoking gun evidence (and again, I'd really want to stress, my original post was OPINION. It was meant in passing, but somehow it got the attention of people on both sides who clearly have a bone to pick).
But, in the "balance of probabilities", my priors suggest to me that I wouldn't trust the CCP. I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying you need to believe me. I am simply exercising my right to say my opinion, based on what I think are fairly reasonable priors given CCP track record.
CCP isn't an evil regime, which I feel like is what some of the stauncher replies in this thread feel that any criticism of the party secretly says. They've done great things for the country and its people. Healthcare, stability, infrastructure, and tried to right the wrongs of Mao and the GLF. But that doesn't mean you have to trust everything a government says. Your parents provide you with food and shelter, it doesn't mean you need to blindly believe that they are incapable of doing dishonest things.
This is also not an attack on the Chinese people, contrary to some silly posts I've seen saying "demonizing the CCP means demonizing thr Chinese people". I totally understand why Chinese people tolerate the government. When you emerged from a generation that suffered incredible rural poverty, like my own family, a government that promises you a stable paycheck, food, and housing seems reasonable to support and stay loyal to. I am fortunate enough that my father was talented and lucky enough to be able to leave for a country where we could obtain those things without needing to profess that loyalty unflinchingly.