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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#631

Post by sarchertech »

leereeves wrote: post #609
learc83 wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business. So which is it? He started 500 businesses, or he has a few businesses that are made up of multiple properties. I have friends with a few dozen rental properties, all in separate LLCs. I wouldn't say they "started 50 businesses".

You can't have it both ways; those 6 bankruptcies are just properties too. So with your wording you should say Trump owned 500 properties and 6 of them lost money. And like any real estate investor, when the properties lost money, Trump gave those 6 properties to the creditors. But I think my wording is more accurate. Your friend's rental properties may not be individual businesses, but Trump Tower or the Taj Mahal a…

Trump Tower and Taj Mahal are real businesses. But most of trumps "businesses" aren't. They are just shell companies to hold assets.

The vast majority of his businesses have no customers, and no regular income. They aren't intended to make a profit--they're intended to protect an asset from the bankruptcy of his real businesses. There was never any chance that they would need to go bankrupt, so he gets no credit for them not going bankrupt.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#632

Post by refurb »

deegles wrote: post #523
refurb wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m no fan of the President, but Paul Krugman’s rants have gone from heated to just bizarre at this point. Shows that even Noble laureate’s aren’t immune from going off the rails.

Do you think it's more likely that a Nobel laureate has gone off the rails, or that they are using the same skills and knowledge that got them a Nobel to analyze the current situation?

Being an expert in economics doesn’t mean you’re an expert in everything.

And Krugman’s articles of late seem not be rooted in logical, rationale thought but rather leading with ideology and emotions.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#633

Post by flatfilefan »

roymurdock wrote: post #151
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

My question is what is the point of the trade war. What does trump get from initiating/escalating it, or who is directing him to do it. Seems to be a net negative for all sectors of the economy.

I see at least three things: it was his election promise, he preempts the imminent cyclic recession, he gains leverage on federal reserve and transnational corps. Agriculture problem seems to be preceding the trade war. For instance the soybeans sales to China are down because the protein content is down in the US soybeans.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#634

Post by Phlarp »

learc83 wrote: post #629
yellowapple wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Selling things below value is pretty typical in a liquidation/bankruptcy scenario, though.

Yeah but there are limits. If I'm about to go bankrupt and I sell my $700k house to my brother for $150k, the trustee isn't going to let me get away with that.

Those limits are dynamic based on connections / how many white shoe lawyers you are willing to fund.

An established real estate family will have plenty of room to shuffle assets and credit lines around in a favorable way within those limits... for a generation or two.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#635

Post by mycall »

panarky wrote: post #584
joshlegs wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hell, or even just good ole 'institutionalism'. "Deep state" sure does imply conspiracies afoot, and it's hardly such a thing. really it's just plain ole bureaucracy

Yikes, this whole thread is so provincial. Yes, the US president is an economic imbecile, but $50 billion dollars in tariffs is a drop in the ocean of the $100 trillion global bond market. This is a much, much bigger deal than US politics or a US trade war. Interest rates are negative on $15 trillion worth of debt. All German government bonds have negative rates, all the way out to 30 years. Policymakers don't like t…

How does deflation affect all the stock buybacks happening? Under these conditions, are stocks a good place to keep your cash?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#636

Post by watersb »

specialist wrote: post #444
refurb wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

I now doubt IQ, values, beliefs are even a factor. A relation of mine went from studying marine biology to full on fundie. Creationism, climate denial, etc. Huge Trump supporter too, of course. Can any one explain to me how a one time scientist now doubts evolution?

Intelligence amplifies a person's ability to construct a narrative that feels like a good fit to lived experience.

Complicated plot. It's all interconnected...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#637

Post by starky »

xster wrote: post #547
tlogan wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

I get your general sentiment. I'm just not sure why everyone keeps using the iPhone example. China's value-add part in the iPhone building process is about 1%. Having iPhone built with China's manufacturing efficiency is a lot more about Apple's bottom line (as demonstrated by its ability to lobby Trump to delay the tariffs until after the holiday sales) than China.

It isn't about the iPhone though, but rather it is used as a generic example of the type of product built in China that is exported internationally. Being involved in that sector, there have been cracks forming ever since the first round of tariffs were implemented. None of my Chinese vendors are particularly busy, and I'm getting more cold messages than ever from vendors in China. My vendors outside of China are all talking about how they are growing. I was visiting a manufacturer in SEA at the end of May and they had at least 3 or 4 containers full of machines they had just received to open up a new section of factory.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#638

Post by starky »

40acres wrote: post #387

The forward looking indicators indicate recession, the backwards looking indicators indicate recession, and the general pattern of the yield curve suggests a downturn within ~20 months. Question is; what's a normal personal investor to do? Knowing that expectations are baked into the price and timing the market is a fools errand, what can normal people do to shield themselves? I've been 90/10 asset allocation since e…

That depends on your risk profile. Are you going to freak out if your portfolio loses 30% of its value in a year? Then maybe move to a more balanced portfolio. If you are happy to wait and let things turn around again, then stay the course. Timing the market is generally not recommended because the people that do this every day have a much better grasp on what is going on than the public in general and they will have already responded en-masse before you can, so at best you are hoping to get lucky.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#639

Post by cryptozeus »

majewsky wrote: post #113
cryptozeus wrote: post #91

What would be the best asset store money? Cash ?

If there were a "best" asset store, people wouldn't bother with the other ones. In reality, it's all tradeoffs depending on your situation.

I mean during the recession not in general. Equities are clearly the best for investment.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#640

Post by digitaltrees »

panarky wrote: post #584
joshlegs wrote: post #528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hell, or even just good ole 'institutionalism'. "Deep state" sure does imply conspiracies afoot, and it's hardly such a thing. really it's just plain ole bureaucracy

Yikes, this whole thread is so provincial. Yes, the US president is an economic imbecile, but $50 billion dollars in tariffs is a drop in the ocean of the $100 trillion global bond market. This is a much, much bigger deal than US politics or a US trade war. Interest rates are negative on $15 trillion worth of debt. All German government bonds have negative rates, all the way out to 30 years. Policymakers don't like t…

Humans are susceptible to narratives and trends. Even if the total dollar amount is low if every business cuts spending by 10% “just to be careful in case things get bad” because they here a narrative that the trade war will reduce demand...their collective action will create a recession.
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