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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

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Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#621

Post by johnnyanmac »

codexon wrote: post #531
deaton wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See this is the big issue I've been seeing. The only vibe coded product I can think of off the top of my head that's succeeding at all is Bun, and maybe I'm behind the times but it feels like Bun's success is mostly being pushed by Anthropic; I've yet to see much other than Claude Code use it.

There's very little incentive for people to advertise that their product was vibe coded. In fact there's many incentives to hide it. Many people hate AI and why would you invite more competition? Bun gets a lot of hate for vibe coding. I vibe coded to modernize one of my old hobby websites (so not even vibe coding from scratch) and I immediately got anti-AI comments, and I didn't even say I used AI.

Hope it keeps up, then. Social shaming is one of the last real hopes against this since government regulators are compromised.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#622

Post by confidantlake »

swat535 wrote: post #381
weatherlite wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All fields are basically over as a long term career besides perhaps prostitutes and even there I'm not entirely sure. But the questions of how soon and by how much matter a lot. Being early is the same as being wrong a clever guy once said.

I hear you, but just to pedantic.. prostitution is certainly not a long term career either.. never has been. After 35, you're not going to find work as a sex worker..

It is over for me before it even started.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#623

Post by abnercoimbre »

swat535 wrote: post #381
weatherlite wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All fields are basically over as a long term career besides perhaps prostitutes and even there I'm not entirely sure. But the questions of how soon and by how much matter a lot. Being early is the same as being wrong a clever guy once said.

I hear you, but just to pedantic.. prostitution is certainly not a long term career either.. never has been. After 35, you're not going to find work as a sex worker..

Can't believe I'm correcting you on HN, but MILFs and DILFs are a thing. (Granted you'll need the appropriate genes and gym fitness.)

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#624

Post by to11mtm »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #61
Syntaf wrote: post #35

> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…

Ironically, AI mitigates bad developers quite a bit. The architecture/design is coming from above bad devs (in a functional org), and AI tends to write less sloppy code than bad devs, and test/validate it more rigorously.

It can but you need to be careful.

At my org we use Github Copilot as our AI tool for devs, both internally and for vendors (Including a WITCH =/).

Where it gets ugly, is that we have a -lot- of WITCH provided code already in our systems, and as a result GHCP winds up often preferring the existing (terrible) patterns.

I've done some things to help mitigate at least; Adding instruction/skill/agent files, tossing in some LLM-built .NET analyzers to catch the worst anti-patterns to warn on build and error on CI, and making sure to call out when the vendor people are obviously not even reviewing what the LLM generated for them [0]

[0] - Simplest case being, EF Core mappings where the datatypes do not even exist in the target DB...

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#625

Post by johnnyanmac »

cardy31 wrote: post #581
mikert89 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the field is basically over as a long term career unless you are truly exceptional. It will become very easy to build most software, and the upper end will be filled with the top people in the country/from abroad. Wages are certainly going down for most software roles

People started saying this several years ago and yet it hasn’t really come to pass.

It's not over (far from it), but we certainly have spent the last few years shedding SWE's off by the millions. Try finding a new job as a SWE today.

Whether that is due to AI or other economic conditions is an exercise left to the reader.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#626

Post by johnnyanmac »

esafak wrote: post #22
mikert89 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the field is basically over as a long term career unless you are truly exceptional. It will become very easy to build most software, and the upper end will be filled with the top people in the country/from abroad. Wages are certainly going down for most software roles

Only if you run out of things to write. Is your back log ever empty?

My backlog is overflowing. My wallet, however, is depleting.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#627

Post by groundzeros2015 »

toss1 wrote: post #612
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would credentialing software engineers do to curtail leadership incentive problems? Hardware technology jobs have some of these credentials and are part of that system.

More credentialing and requirements would do plenty to curtail leadership incentive problems. First, as the sibling points out, it gives the licensed engineer a solid ground to stand on when refusing a stupid leadership order — "I'm not going to lose my license for that stupid idea", and a serious incentive to do so, as well as solid job prospects if he does get canned for it (because there's a limited pool of creden…

> it gives the licensed engineer a solid ground to stand on when refusing a stupid leadership order

I disagree to the extent to which this is real leverage. It changes the language and approach, but not the outcome, Ask a civil engineer the degree to which they can fight their leadership on these grounds.

> clearly cuts off huge numbers of would-be doctors who never pass the exams

Yes the fallacy is that more exclusive is better. You don’t understand the traits you select for.

> those people just go to some boot camp and they're off to the races

I don’t see any kids who just got off a boot camp running large software projects. Does this happen at your workplace? Why not?

> This again continuously improves the talent pool.

I just disagree to the extent to which the talent actually increases.

The people who excel already learn and study all time.

This slightly raises the floor by forcing the least curious person to be exposed to some PowerPoints and videos.

> The untrustworthy or careless SWE just gets a new job to ruin stuff elsewhere

They can only ruin the extent of responsibility and scope given to a new hire with no reputation.

> least trustworthy and careful and cancelling their license

Once again you assume the system works as stated. I think it actually selects against those who are bad at avoiding responsibility and not legally savvy.

The image that comes to mind is someone who made a mistake, cares a ton about medicine, and hates the organizational administration.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#628

Post by johnnyanmac »

Manfrednotfunny wrote: post #472
edukite wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just another 6 months bro, only another funding bro, I promise, all devs will be replaced bro I have stupid question here. Why they sell tokens instead of AI generated full application and AI fixes to your code without you needing a single dev?

Because of the current state of AI. But the current state of AI is a very good indicator were it is going. Even if we don't achieve AGI, do you think AI in its current form will not be better in 5 or 10 years and we will have this solved a lot more/better than today? Even with AI, you still need to design the software, test it, try it out, deploy it and scale it. An proper agentic platform still needs time to be buil…

>Even if we don't achieve AGI, do you think AI in its current form will not be better in 5 or 10 years and we will have this solved a lot more/better than today?

In my sector? No, not really. Because the core problem isn't tech, but labor rights. Those will only worsen.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#629

Post by Barrin92 »

singpolyma3 wrote: post #607
Barrin92 wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why would we restrict other creative work in this way? Because it isn't creative work. Software underpins payment processors, medical services, emergency alerts, infrastructure. In the UK not long ago a ransomware attack took the healthcare system offline and surgeries had to be postponed. in 2021 the Colonial Pipeline attack took 50% of the US East Coast's oil supply offline. The entire German train system died a f…

Then license healthcare systems, payment processors, etc. Not humans

you license both. When you go in for surgery your hospital is accredited and the surgeon who operates on you is licensed. I don't even understand what you're trying to argue, you're okay with being operated on by a guy they found on craigslist as long as the hospital has a license? We should bridges let bridges be built by engineers who took a few courses on Khan Academy?

Of course professionals themselves need to be licensed, how else is any company supposed to have any confidence in who they employ or any legal security?

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#630

Post by groundzeros2015 »

Silhouette wrote: post #588
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would credentialing software engineers do to curtail leadership incentive problems? Hardware technology jobs have some of these credentials and are part of that system.

What would credentialing software engineers do to curtail leadership incentive problems? The same as in other regulated professions. It would give the people on the front line who can see the consequences of the corner cutting an effective right to say "No, we're not doing this user hostile thing". This would be a significant barrier because it wouldn't be legal to ship software without the required professional appr…

That’s not how these systems work in reality. I’m actually an extreme pessimist.

What actually happens is that you as an engineer become paid to frame the desired leadership goals in compliant terms.

It’s similar to how lawyers and regulatory compliance rarely change the product. They change how the product is talked about and framed for the purpose of regulation.

This skill among engineers is highly sought after in large companies with political organizations and greater encouraging it changes the composition of the workforce.

Top civil engineers don’t design buildings.

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