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Layoffs at Block

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Re: Layoffs at Block

#621

Post by dakolli »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #594
dakolli wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stoping trying to cope that AI/LLM augmented automation isn't to blame here. equities and profits are at all time highs, rates are still really low!! This has nothing to do with the cost of money. It doesn't matter if AI is effective at reducing head count, it only matters that decision makers believe it will! If they go on twitter and see "SWE is dead" "4th industrial revolution is here" ect ect, they will eventuall…

>Stoping trying to cope that AI/LLM augmented automation isn't to blame here. It's not cope. The math just isn't mathing. the efficiencies advertiesed don't match the layoff proportions. The earning call employment counts don't match with the idea that they are "downsizing" as a company (meanwhile, what semblence of truth we have left in the job numbers DO suggest that we lost a lot of white collar jobs in 2024/5). T…

Because it doesn't matter if it actually works, or is creating efficiencies. As long as they can justify making a huge % of labor unemployed, not just SWE. The more people laid off the less bargaining power labor has in the future.

This buys them time psyop everyone into believing that AI actually does make things easier, this includes convincing labor also. So when they go to hire everyone back in 18 months, or at least a percentage of them they can say well [insert job that required computer i/o] actually doesn't require as much skill as before (whether it does or not) so your salary is going to be 3/5ths of what it used to be, and if you don't accept there's a huge supply of desperate people. Its literally the exact same targeted operation that was pulled on factory workers in the mid to late 20th century.

The efficiencies will be gained in lower labor costs going forward, not actual productivity gains or better software.. They care about the quality of the work produced as long as they have houses in Vail/Aspen and a spot in the Bahamas..

Certain industries where quality matters, may survive on merit like medical equipment manufacturers or aviation... but will it, look at Boeing..

The ruling class is our enemy and we better start acting like that. We are going to need our generations French Revolution soon.

If we don't take this seriously, and see it for what it is, they are going to give us their own version of a war to fight, but it will be to accumulate resources for them overseas. Just like in the 20s young men and women will be so poor they'll do anything, they'll beg for a war. We need to make sure they don't channel that energy away from them, because they're going to get us to try the working class to go fight on their behalf in EU, MENA, and the Pacific again. It's the same playbook. I'll bet my last dollar on it.

Re: Layoffs at Block

#622

Post by dakolli »

mjevans wrote: post #613
johnnyanmac wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Stoping trying to cope that AI/LLM augmented automation isn't to blame here. It's not cope. The math just isn't mathing. the efficiencies advertiesed don't match the layoff proportions. The earning call employment counts don't match with the idea that they are "downsizing" as a company (meanwhile, what semblence of truth we have left in the job numbers DO suggest that we lost a lot of white collar jobs in 2024/5). T…

I'm wondering what the heck will pay the bills on all that 'AI' hardware that's being put out there. So far the number of ideas that sound like an episode of some tech-horror show far outweigh the ones that sound like a Star Trek utopia.

They'll kill off whatever percentage of the working class they don't need like they did in WW2 during the last great depression, although I'd argue they have more efficient methods of purging the working class now. They'll make everyone so poor they beg to fight in a war, like in the 20s-30s.

Re: Layoffs at Block

#623

Post by coffeebeqn »

danpalmer wrote: post #357
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are, but there are also a number of companies (including not-particularly-AI ones like Netflix and Oracle) that are above their ZIRP peak. I think it's hard to definitively say that this story is inconsistent with one explanation or the other.

Oracle is definitely an AI stock, as much as that's silly. Between being a cloud provider with GPUs, and investments in OpenAI, it's certainly part of the AI meme in the stock market, and possibly even a reasonable way to get some AI exposure if that's what you want to invest in.

Owning SP500 gives me too much AI exposure by default

Re: Layoffs at Block

#624

Post by coffeebeqn »

pants2 wrote: post #400
borroka wrote: post #156

Anyone who has worked in the big tech industry knows that probably more than half of the workforce performs tasks that, in essence, are superfluous. But these things happened: 1) Musk has shown that Twitter can operate with 5% (approximately?) of the workforce he inherited; 2) laying off a lot of people was seen as a sign that the company was in trouble, but not now because; 3) artificial intelligence makes point 2)…

1) This is by any source I can find, incorrect. Twitter had ~8,000 employees when Musk bought it. After layoffs that was trimmed to a low of around 1,500 employees (19%), and today it has around 2,800 employees. Also worth mentioning that a lot of Twitter's products are built on X.ai which has 1,200 core employees on Grok with 3,000+ on the Datacenter build-out side.

Also if you put a product in maintenance mode you can easily get away with a fraction of your devs. Most people are at all times working on some definition of something new

Re: Layoffs at Block

#625

Post by aiisjustanif »

_heimdall wrote: post #484
alephnerd wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm convinced that these "AI Layoffs" are these companies trying to save face from the absurd overhiring that they did in 2022 and 2023 because apparently they thought that these no-interest loans/free money would just last forever. Partially. The first nail in the coffin was the change in assumptions around output. Before 2023, there was an assumption that more bodies means more output. After the massive X/Twitter…

> It's harder to layoff someone you have had beers or coffee with Interesting, in my experience this hasn't mattered at all. Generally those close enough to an employee to have had beers with them aren't the ones making any decisions related to layoffs, and may themselves be on the chopping block.

Network higher up the stack and be extremely likable

Re: Layoffs at Block

#626

Post by PunchTornado »

agnishom wrote: post #611

> i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. Sounds like a false dichotomy. The third option is that he could have kept them around. It would be financially feasible given that "our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving.".

On shareholder money? No thank you. If 1 person can do the job, why keep 2?

Re: Layoffs at Block

#627

Post by aaa_aaa »

Bluescreenbuddy wrote: post #531
alephnerd wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm convinced that these "AI Layoffs" are these companies trying to save face from the absurd overhiring that they did in 2022 and 2023 because apparently they thought that these no-interest loans/free money would just last forever. Partially. The first nail in the coffin was the change in assumptions around output. Before 2023, there was an assumption that more bodies means more output. After the massive X/Twitter…

Twitter is just a misinformation machine now. They got rid of anyone that made it a decent place. No more pesky moderation, sales and ad teams, etc. as long as it’s up and the sock puppets can foment dived, it’s serving its purpose.

It is a misinformation machine. Funny thing is, it always was. People just want their misinformation reign supreme.

Re: Layoffs at Block

#628

Post by dfadsadsf »

runtheway94 wrote: post #347
dfadsadsf wrote: post #38

Right now is exactly the time when we need to pause issuing new or transferring existing H1B/L1/other work visas for least a year until we know full impact of AI on economy and employment.

I understand pausing completely ; can you explain how stopping the transfer of existing temporary workers will help?

Lots of people laid off by Block are on H1B Visas. With transfer they have 60 days to find new role. If they could not find new job in 60 days, they "fake" transfer to "bodyshop" company while they are looking for real work so status does not lapse.

With transfer you have 4k people looking and eligible for new role. With no H1B transfer, less people are looking for work and citizens and green card holders have higher chance to land roles in a few companies still hiring.

Re: Layoffs at Block

#629

Post by itake »

PunchTornado wrote: post #626
agnishom wrote: post #611

> i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. Sounds like a false dichotomy. The third option is that he could have kept them around. It would be financially feasible given that "our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving.".

On shareholder money? No thank you. If 1 person can do the job, why keep 2?

If there are growth opportunities for the company, selectively choosing the top 90% YoY, minimizing backfills (in theory...) will result in a company full of high achievers that can execute on that growth vision.

If the company is shifting into maintenance mode, cutting 40% of the staff is the right move, but definitely hurts shareholders b/c they valued the company as growth, not maintenance.

Re: Layoffs at Block

#630

Post by dfadsadsf »

650 wrote: post #351
dfadsadsf wrote: post #38

Right now is exactly the time when we need to pause issuing new or transferring existing H1B/L1/other work visas for least a year until we know full impact of AI on economy and employment.

Won't companies just offshore?

Not really. I expect with AI and increased productivity allure of outsourcing will diminish. You want super productive engineers to be close to product and customers.

Besides if you are looking for work there is very little difference between foreigner on H1B taking the role and role being outsourced to India. Either way you do not have the job.

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