Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

There is so much wrong with this blog post that it is difficult to know where to start. Does he even know that China has placed silver on the rare earths list? Considering they export 60 % of the worlds refined silver and now exports are limited and controlled. Silver markets have sold 200 contracts to every bar of refined silver. Now they are scrambling to fulfill delivery if someones requests it and are forced to buy on the spot market, which incidentally has driven spot pricing higher than contracts.

People are moving out of Bitcoin and into Gold currently. I see this trend continuing (Bitcoin falling).

The markets today are indestructible at the moment as you have witnessed over the last 3-4 years. This year will be similar to 2025 according to many different and smart people. I tend to agree with them and we are still in a bull market.

-not an expert, not investment advice, your mileage may vary.

I asked NOMOS (a system) I built for financial intelligence. These are it's key findings:

Key Answer

As of early 2026, there is no consensus forecast for an imminent crash of the U.S. economy. The prevailing view among major institutions is a period of moderated growth or a "soft landing," not a severe contraction. However, this outlook is balanced against significant and rising risks, including labor market fragility, unsustainable fiscal debt, and persistent inflationary pressures that could trigger a more pronounced downturn. Key Findings

    Consensus Points to Slowdown, Not a Crash. Major institutional bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and large investment banks project modest U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, generally in the 1.8% to 2.5% range. This baseline scenario is supported by expectations of resilient consumer spending, continued investment in technology like AI, and an anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve as inflation moderates. Optimistic forecasts from firms like RSM US and ARK Invest even anticipate a growth rebound to 2.2%, viewing the economy as a "coiled spring" fueled by technology spending.

    Labor Market Fragility is the Primary Downside Risk. Despite a low headline unemployment rate, the labor market shows significant signs of weakness. Analysts describe the current environment as a "low-hire, low-fire" equilibrium, characterized by slowing job growth and concerns over employment quality. A critical warning sign is the growing divergence between strong reported GDP figures and weakening labor market data. Historically, such contradictions are often resolved by downward revisions to economic growth, suggesting the economy may be weaker than headline numbers indicate. Capital Economics highlights that a cooling labor market, if not offset by productivity gains, could initiate a self-reinforcing cycle of lower employment and reduced consumer spending.

    Unsustainable Fiscal Debt Poses a Systemic Threat. The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, exceeding 100% of GDP. Net interest costs are projected to consume nearly 14% of all federal spending in 2026. The Brookings Institution projects this trajectory is unsustainable, with debt potentially reaching $170 trillion over three decades and interest payments consuming over a quarter of tax revenues within a decade. This creates near-term risks, as FTI Consulting warns that "bond vigilantes" could push back against perceived fiscal profligacy, driving up government bond yields and, consequently, borrowing costs for the entire private sector, independent of Federal Reserve actions.

    Stagflationary Pressures Complicate Monetary Policy. The economic environment is characterized by a difficult mix of slowing growth and persistent, albeit moderating, inflation. This presents a stagflationary challenge for the Federal Reserve. Policy measures such as new tariffs are expected to add to inflationary pressures while simultaneously acting as a drag on consumption and investment. This dynamic severely constrains the Fed's ability to stimulate the economy; cutting interest rates aggressively to support growth could risk re-igniting inflation, while keeping rates high to fight inflation could accelerate a downturn.

    Negative Public Sentiment Contrasts with Macro Resilience. While macroeconomic indicators like GDP have shown resilience, public sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative. Polls from Pew Research and YouGov show that a majority of Americans rate the economy poorly, driven by persistent affordability challenges related to housing, food, and healthcare. This sentiment is exacerbated by 2026 policy changes, such as cuts to social programs, which directly impact household budgets. This disconnect between headline data and public experience is a vulnerability, as deteriorating consumer confidence can lead to pullbacks in spending that are not yet reflected in aggregate data.

Metaverse as originally described (no idea what it's become since) was a really bad Second Life, which was already more than a decade old if I remember right.

He is simply negotiating with the US. That's it pretty much. He's trying to get the best deal for Canada. That's always been how things work. It's just politics. There is really nothing new here other than perhaps the more aggressive and public approach of the Americans. What used to happen in closed rooms is just getting a bit more light and the current US administration thinks that it can/deserves to get a larger share of the pie.

> It feels as though all we need is a spark. And yet, many sparks seem to have come and gone. Big market moves, in stocks or yields, that have recovered. Tariff and invasion threats, protests, you name it, they might move the needle but it always seems to move back. So, perhaps we won? Perhaps we built our markets so stable that they are these days impervious

This is a myopic question only considering the values of securities, gold/silver, etc, which are owned in significance by relatively few.

The working class economy has already crashed. People who have to put in hours to get paid are struggling, and consumer spending is dominated by the top 10%.

The media, ever fixated on the economic welfare of the top 1%, spins a story that if the stock market is doing well, the economy is doing well.

Meanwhile there is an quiet bet that authoritarians will protect interests of capital owners over all else (i.e the bailout OpenAI hinted they might need), while suppressing the primary methods the masses have for expressing their discontent: speech, organizing/demonstrating, strikes, and voting.