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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

621–630 of 645 posts

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#621
post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s only a matter of time, but time matters, as they say. You should know that what China is doing was tried in the past. It is an old story. When the microchip was brand new (invented in the USA) the Soviets realized they needed the tech for military purposes. So they built a closed city devoted to silicon research called Zelenograd. It was staffed with very bright physicists and engineers. But Zelenograd didn't ma…

The argument that never fails to appear: China’s failures are blamed on communism, while China’s successes are attributed to capitalism.

What do you think would have happened if 1989 had went a different way, China today is already united with Taiwan and basically a billion+ person version of Taiwan.

They would be less successful?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#622
post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you clarify what are you talking about? The US has been developing 6th-gen fighter since the mid mid-2010s - not that I'd consider it as an important new original invention. So you think that, as an advanced military project that should have been kept under the strictest secrecy, the Chinese somehow obtained it and, based on that, developed their own sixth-generation fighter—and even managed a successful test f…

China doesn’t yet have the jet engine technology to compete with American 5th gen fighters. I certainly don’t think the US or anyone else should be complacent, but the US has a substantial lead for now.

Some relevant info here: https://www.flyajetfighter.com/the-ws-15-engine-enters-servi...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I often wonder what is it that's driving the Chinese to work themselves to death to get this stuff done? Surely there must be some limit. I guess we can see it in the low birth rates, the youth unemployment, and I guess the desire to just survive because there's just so many people there. But still, I just don't get how Chinese just keep going and going. What is their end goal on a person to person level? Are they ju…

Their parent's generation toiled really hard and lifted the entire country out of poverty and everyone was pretty well rewarded for it. They feel working hard brings benefits. In America, working hard brings your manager benefits. We are multiple generations into this. Most people have learned to not work hard because it is just free benefit to your employer. Sure, we could pressure Americans to work harder by making…

I wonder how the police state works into this. China spends a lot of money on internal surveillance and suppression of information.

If the belief was genuine, would this be necessary?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#624
post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One function of R&D involves how to manufacture things cheaply, quickly + en masse. Those efficiencies that started with consumer drones now serve drones used in war. DJI being used at the start of the war is the evidence of that. Continuation of that investment in R&D will also lead to new technologies: such as quieter drones, drones that can carry more, go further, and be controlled through difficult to counter mea…

>China aren't looking at EUV so they can break into the graphics cards market or lower the price of RAM. Absolute utter numpties. they do it to protect themselves from sanctions and tariffs. scandalous, I know.

that's comically* naive, and plainly false - China itself has already stated their objectives.

* Actually, wilfully naive would be a better fit.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#625

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The PRC motto is not about "can do", it's about "able to do". Can Palau build a commercial airliner when Boeing and Airbus workforce is 10x their population? No that's simply out of their reach. That's really the crux behind the original statement, there are not many (really currently any) country in the world other than PRC who has the complete industrial chains and workforce numbers to build anything that already e…

> The PRC motto is not about "can do", it's about "able to do". Who cares? "Can do" assumes "able to do". > Can Palau build a commercial airliner when Boeing and Airbus workforce is 10x their population? No that's simply out of their reach. That's why I limited it to : "That's how everyone who industrialized/advanced approaches everything.". > That's really the crux behind the original statement, there are not many (…

>"Can do" assumes "able to do"

> industrialized/advanced approaches everything

Can do, does not in fact translate to able to do, for advanced/industrialized economies. It takes about 150k workforce to build long body civil aviation industry. US as country can muster that critical mass. EU has to muster that as a bloc (as you recognized). Developed economy >So can the US. Are you saying china can create something we can't figure out?

>small/medium countries will collaborate

US has projected technical talent shortage in semi in 100,000s. Hence US only try to reshore fabs vs PRC semi brrrting talent to execute industrial policy to indigenize entire semi supply chain i.e. it's something US maybe can figure out, but can't execute, again not able to do on it's own, so it doesn't even try. That's really the crux behind original quote, EUV is made by people... but the broader context is EUV (and supply chains) is made by consortium of countries, i.e. common rhetoric is EUV is made by the world, how can PRC replicate global effort? The answer is EUV is made by a small handful of countries with fraction of PRC population, PRC talent pool and industry large enough to single hand speed run global coordination. Hence PRC is able to do everything, even things that require others to do as bloc.

>China is a subset

>predicated entirely on western knowledge/tech >I'd say there is nothing that china cannot build.

Was a subsect. Now much of their dependencies are gone. That dependency made clear by export controls is why many PRC industry doubters existed 5-10 years ago who definitely thought there were things China could not replicate, EUV supply chain is one of these. The other is a competent national football team. But domestic industrial chain and talent generation has expanded so much so fast that much of doubt gone. The motto, was specifically made in this context. PRC techno-optimist look at all the other concurrent major indigenization projects and the underlying meaning morphed to PRC can build not just what another country can build, what another bloc can build, but everything... simultaneously, i.e. post war US hyper hegemony type of sole player. It is not your generic can do attitude, it's can do anything, and everything at the same time. Continental scale, industrial sovereignty/autarky tier of ambition.

>smaller than the west and its allies

It's roughly the same size by pop, unless you through in 3rd party India then when might as well as through in global south for PRC. But if we're talking about useful indicators, PRC produce more talent i.e. about same as OECD which is more than US+co. Industrially, PRC produce as much as core US+co block, US+co produce more by value add. Both are flow measures. But if we look in raw output / actual material production / output, PRC can be substantially larger than west combined. Many raw inputs (ree steel aluminum etc) small intermediate goods PRC make more than RoW combined. The exception is of course the pinnacle that PRC hasn't figured out, thrown industrial printing press at. But things like auto, spacelaunch, semi, civil aviation can go the way of PRC shipbuilding, one of the mature strategic industries where PRC now produces more than RoW combined.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. That's how everyone who industrialized/advanced approaches everything. China isn't the only country with the "can do" or "if you can do it, we can do it" attitud…

> That's how everyone who industrialized/advanced approaches everything. China isn't the only country with the "can do" or "if you can do it, we can do it" attitude. The US is a prime example of the "can do" attitude. Do you think when britain industrialized, the US decided only britain is capable of industrializing and gave up? Of course not. Heck, china isn't even the first asian country with the "can do" attitude.…

> A reminder: the difference is that Japan has already failed in areas such as mobile internet, robotics, Fifth-generation computers, and space technology....LLM and so on. Japan is still clinging to the substantial profits of its internal combustion vehicle industry, and in battery technology it has fallen far behind.

So what?

> Japan clearly does not fall into this category.

A country that rose to become a major power in the 1800s. Got destroyed during ww2. Then rose again to be a mjor power.

> In fact, only China and the United States possess this mindset.

If that was the case, post ww2 germany and japan would not exist.

> Germany and Japan have small national territories, making it easy for them to fall into early industrial leadership and then rest on high-profit laurels without further ambition.

Have you no understanding of history prior to the last 10 years?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My counterpoint is that it’s not possible to buy appliances which last for decades anymore, because the entire industry has changed. Consumers eventually don’t have a choice

They have much less choice because all of those businesses that cared about quality have gone out of business! 100 years ago clothes were expensive items. Which is why they were class signals - less because of fashion and more because if you were poor you needed to buy long lasting fabrics. Clothes for the poor were expensive as well as the rich. You can buy those same quality items today but nobody will because we e…

I think some people can afford those quality goods, the same percentage roughly as could afford it before things got cheaper. The people complaining are people who couldn’t afford those quality goods earlier and now are buying the cheaper versions they can afford. But that has shaped broader consumer preferences for cheaper goods across the board

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#629

Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent proj…

I don't disagree with you on the conclusion, but man I just wish people stopped believing in fairy tales about countries like this. America does it too. Why are people so allergic to materialism? I'm not saying culture is irrelevant but saying china's success is due to "Chinese way of thinking" or america was dominant because of the "american dream" is an adult believing santa-tier take. Material conditions shape his…

> Why are people so allergic to materialism?

They are made so in the Angloamerican West. The establishment wants them to focus on 'values' instead. Because if the people started thinking about material conditions, they would topple the system that concentrates 99% of the wealth in the hands of the 0.1%.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#630
post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides wanted reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1) China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the po…

Thanks. In my view, the PRC is making a huge strategic mistake. As is Taiwan. The PRC is too focused on full control, normally they're more long-term-minded, but in this case they're rushing it too much. Establishing a trade-bloc and peaceful relations first and then aiming for full reunification would be the smart play, since there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion. T…

> there isn't anything huge to gain outside of TSMC (that I know of) by way of an invasion.

The reunification of Taiwan is a fundamental national policy, enshrined in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The primary intention behind the desire for national reunification stems from the realization of reunification itself, rather than from other interests. This reflects a complex national sentiment and shared aspiration.

We consider the people of Taiwan to be our compatriots. Therefore, even though our military strength far surpasses that of Taiwan, the mainland is unwilling to resort to force and has always hoped for peaceful reunification. This is because we do not wish to harm or even kill any of our compatriots in the process of achieving it.

Essentially, it has been the United States that has been obstructing this unification process and using propaganda tools to influence public perception in Taiwan. As a result, many Taiwanese people are shocked by the stark difference between the mainland and the propaganda portrays them when they visit. It is truly baffling that, despite living so close to the mainland, their understanding of it is almost in sync with that of Americans.

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