Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

... And it is dominated by technology. And you can see that in the charts and tables of "Top H-1B employers by visa approval" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa#Top_H-1B_employers_b... and how it changed from 2006 to 2017. Everyone I know who is on a H-1B or H-4 visa is affiliated with a technology job.

There's also a loophole that if one's spouse is approved under a H-1B visa and they're under an H-4 visa, they can also work in a H-1B visa field.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa

    Work Authorization 
    H-1B holder: Allowed to work for sponsoring employer
    H-4 dependents: Eligible if H-1B spouse has approved I-140 immigrant petition or H-1B status beyond 6 years under AC21

So, spitballing the idea... the H-1T visa would be for all STEM positions. This does not extend to a spouse (the spouse would need their own approval). This visa would be for all professions classified as 15-xxxx, 17-xxxx, and 19-xxxx by the BLS ( https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes_stru.htm ). That is, if your job is 15-1234 and you are a foreign worker, you must have an H-1T (or O-1) visa. The H-1T visa would have a different cap that is independent from the H-1B visa lottery and instead of a lottery it is done by auction. There is a 10% of salary fee paid with a minimum of $10,000 that is to be paid into the SMART scholarship and S-STEM programs. Applicants under this program may not be paid less than the median wage as determined for that profession ( https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes151251.htm ) regardless of skill level for the location where the employee is based. Companies with more than 10% H-1T visa employees may not apply for new H-1T visas if their employees are not compensated for 2000 hours of work or PTO a year (prorated for hire and termination dates - no more than 50 hours a week may be counted for an employee). Positions to be filled by a H-1T visa must first be advertised and open for 30 days on usajobs.gov (expanding the scope of the site) before applications from foreign nationals or other H-1T visa holders may apply to it. Random audits may be done for any position listed and filled by a H-1T visa holder to ensure that the position matches the job listing (with punitive fines per infraction).

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My goal with those spitballs is do decouple the H-1T and H-1B visas which largely work outside of tech. It clearly establishes who can work in that field. It tries to close loopholes (though I'm sure that there are some in there that I've missed) and tries to make sure that consultancies aren't trying to make a deep bench of people they pay part time or not at all. It's attempting to make sure that people are being compensated at market rates based on real data rather than more nebulous titles.

The author admits that the answer to his own question is no. Which, again, affirms Betteridge’s Law.

> A more plausible explanation for the present weak patch, and for companies’ reluctance to hire, is Trumpian uncertainty. That is now beginning to ease. The chaos of Mr Trump’s tariff roll-out seems to be receding. Deportations and changes to visa rules will remain disruptive, but businesses are starting to adapt. Although 2026 is unlikely to be a year of calm and clarity for America, it may well be a bit less frenzied. That would boost the labour market. American workers’ decade-long hot streak may have longer to run.

To paraphrase his conclusion: no. Things are soft, but in general, probably fine for 2026.

This is what I am saying - I’m sick of seeing sensational, clickbait, disaster-porn headlines, especially when the author timidly backs off and plays both sides once they have your attention. It’s such a lack of journalistic integrity.

Still, people have agency. If one doesn't see it like that in relation to their material stance then there must be a lot of things that are simply disconsidered from the list of possible options, for whatever reason. Nobody said the world is fine as is and that the blame is somehow all on the ones that are in unsavory positions now. The world is not fine (and never was, for a lot of folks that almost nobody talkes about). It's winter time in this industry and the new hatchlings have their future in question. Yes, there are factors out of their control (like LLMs) that led to this winter, but there's also the colective decision for a lot of kids of pursuing these cushy well-paid office jobs that made things worse by oversaturating the market. Now, of course that, being saddled with student debt and heavily invested by an already acquired degree, to consider the long-term career prospects outside the industry seems like a non-starter, yet it may be exactly what the labor market (and younglings' individual well-being) needs. Such a decision is just of the same kind as the one that brought them here. That's agency on the individual level. And lastly, it's best for everyone to understand, internalize, and accept (the more the better) the fact that nobody else should be expected to step in and fix things for you. Yes, there are many people trying to make the world a better place (as there are many who don't care), there are also people in power that are even supposed to do the same, yet if they manage or not to make it better for you is not a given. That's, whenever it happens, just a bonus. The rest is up to you, the adult.

The "just fine" part is that our stock market is doing quite well, and those who are already wealthy greatly increased the velocity of their wealth. The flip side is that everything is too expensive, including labor, and we have to cut corners to make line go up. Most companies, by this point, have been more or less stripped for parts in pursuit of growth. Most are stagnating or experiencing negative growth now, because obviously, except a key few.

And those key few are pretty much holding everything together. Speculatively. Based off of the promise of growth without labor.

So, that's kind of where we're at right now.