also a literal gold rush
underrated observation
America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
621–630 of 753 posts
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#622Earlier quoted context omitted.
And you're confusing all of these terms. The "3 years" is the standard warranty and typically gets extended to 5 years (and maybe 7 or 8 depending on the vendor). This is consistent with Dell PowerEdge, HP ProLiant, etc. servers. Nvidia GPUs on the other hand...there likely could be different terms, but idk because they are not typical purchases for 95% of the companies who make server hardware purchases. Source - I…
Nobody in this thread has mentioned warranty periods. The original comment was about the hardware lifecycle, claiming the hardware was only commercially viable for months. The 3 year number that people are tossing around came from a discredited interview that made the rounds on social media a while back: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...
You're proving my point. Hardware's lifecycle is based on warranty - that's it.
The parent comment was:
> Data centre hardware is more like 3 years.
That comment is actually referencing the standard warranty period (which is indeed typically 3 years), which may or may not be consistent with the useful life of server hardware (which is much more subjective and varies based on appliance).
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#623Earlier quoted context omitted.
>clean streets, no homeless, practically zero crime The US regressed on this heavily in the last generation.
no it didn't. crime rates have been steadily declining for over 30 years
I agree, but a lot of petty/non-violent crime isn't enforced or reported anymore.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#624Earlier quoted context omitted.
>clean streets, no homeless, practically zero crime The US regressed on this heavily in the last generation.
no it didn't. crime rates have been steadily declining for over 30 years
The only crime rate data which is really reliable is the murder rate. This peaked in 1991 and has been generally stable (not steadily declining) since 1999, with a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all murders do get reported and counted.
https://www.consumershield.com/articles/murder-rate-by-year
I don't trust the statistics for lesser crimes because so many of the victims never file a report. In many cities the police now subtly discourage people from filing reports because they don't want to deal with the paperwork or have their statistics look bad. But I think we can generally use the murder rate as a proxy for the overall level of criminality.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#625Earlier quoted context omitted.
Considering we're two years in and everyone's still... talking about chatbots pretty much. Yea, I'd say that's a hell of a gamble. Of course the hardware can probably be repurposed towards crypto mining afterwards, so hey!
The chatbot focus may be a news/accessibility bias. Take a look at deepmind's research blog to see applications in more areas.
There's definitely some cool stuff coming out of it!
Is it going to be as world upending as some folk were making it out to be? I'm not sold on that yet.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#626What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…
While I do believe that China is surpassing the West on many points, I'd like to underline that a cashless society is not a good thing. It's a terrible, terrible idea.
With no cash, the citizen passport and the GFW, the dictatorship has total control of society. It's not that there are no homeless, is that they are pushed to even worse conditions, out of sight. It's not that there is zero crime, it's that the crime is from the state, the mafia, and there is a lot of corruption. But nobody can talk about it because there is no free press.
I do think it's important to state how much China is advancing, and surpassing the West, because they are going to rule the world as the Americans did, soon.
But let's not pretend it's some kind of utopia.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#627What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…
China has made amazing progress and the rate of extreme poverty has fallen a lot. But it's also easier to limit the homeless population in cities when they have the Hukou internal passport system to keep many of the poorest people out, as well as forced institutionalization of the severely mentally ill.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#628What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…
I agree with your assessment on the high end of China's development and the lack of awareness of that from people in the US. But I think the story on the low end /lower class is more interesting and I think there is lack of awareness there too. Even within the US a lot of upper class people don't know what it's like for lower class people here. It's so easy to slip into homelessness because there aren't reasonable op…
i agree with that. It's as if they tried to outlaw poverty. i mean look at all the insane housing regulations (zoning laws, regulations, permit costs, land usage policy) that prevent low cost housing from being built.
I've seen in thailand, how even the poorest can just build a small hut on a piece of land they own and actually live in it. You'd be risking jail time if you did that in the US.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#629What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…
I agree with your assessment on the high end of China's development and the lack of awareness of that from people in the US. But I think the story on the low end /lower class is more interesting and I think there is lack of awareness there too. Even within the US a lot of upper class people don't know what it's like for lower class people here. It's so easy to slip into homelessness because there aren't reasonable op…
I think your assessment of homelessness in the US misses some things, though (or at least leaves them unstated):
First, that it's not just that people "don't know how to live more simply", and thus cling to their homes too long when they "should" otherwise be downsizing and cutting expenses. For a lot of people, the fall is sudden—some medical emergency drains all their savings and leaves them unable to work (at least for a time), and there it goes.
Second, what are they going to downsize to? We don't have whole rural villages in the US that are living, essentially, pre-industrialized lives (except with the Amish, I suppose, but that's a whole other kettle of fish). (Also, I don't know for sure that such places exist today in China—I know that they did not too many years ago, but my information is not current.) There isn't really anywhere you can go in the US to live securely, but simply, on $100 a month or whatever. And even if there were, that would involve leaving whatever job you had to begin with, which removes the "securely" part.
Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom
#630Earlier quoted context omitted.
no it didn't. crime rates have been steadily declining for over 30 years
The only crime rate data which is really reliable is the murder rate. This peaked in 1991 and has been generally stable (not steadily declining) since 1999, with a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all murders do get reported and counted. https://www.consumershield.com/articles/murder-rate-by-year I don't trust the statistics for lesser crimes because so many of the victims never file a report. In many citie…
Surely your graph shows it declining dramatically? If you zoom out a bit [https://crimeforecast.substack.com/p/explaining-the-crime-de...] we're currently at almost an all-time low, you have to go back to the 1950s to find similarly low numbers.