Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can't point to any evidence. Also I can't think of what direct evidence I could present that would be convincing, short of an actual demonstration? I would like to try to justify my intuition though: Seems like the key question is: should we expect AI programming performance to scale well as more compute and specialised training is thrown at it? I don't see why not, it seems an almost ideal problem domain? * Short…
This is my view. We've seen this before in other problems where there's an on-hand automatic verifier. The nature of the problem mirrors previously solved problems. The LLM skeptics need to point out what differs with code compared to Chess, DoTA, etc from a RL perspective. I don't believe they can. Until they can, I'm going to assume that LLMs will soon be better than any living human at writing good code.
I see the burden of proof has been reversed. That’s stage 2 already of the hubris cycle.
On a serious note, these are nothing alike. Games have a clear reward function. Software architecture is extremely difficult to even agree on basic principles. We regularly invalidate previous ”best advice”, and we have many conflicting goals. Tradeoffs are a thing.
Secondly programming has negative requirements that aren’t verifiable. Security is the perfect example. You don’t make a crypto library with unit tests.
Third, you have the spec problem. What is the correct logic in edge cases? That can be verified but needs to be decided. Also a massive space of subtle decisions.