TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#621

Post by jopsen » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:52 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #305

raincole wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! Yes, and then the US will force its way. It's quite funny that you even mentioned nukes. Taiwan did attempt to build nukes and the US destroyed the project. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant...

> Taiwan did attempt to build nukes and the US destroyed the project We “destroyed” it inasmuch as we said we won’t be friends if you do this. We didn’t threaten to invade. America has resisted geopolitical balancing to date because we resisted the temptation of realpolitik . America’s allies are, on average, richer and more peaceful than her enemies. That’s now beginning to change. For the first time in modern histo…

> For the first time in modern history, we may see a system of alliances emerge that credibly counter American economic and military might.

During the cold war, there were certainly planners in the west that thought the west would loose a conflict.

So maybe not the first time.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#622

Post by ethbr1 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:53 PM UTC

nemo44x wrote: post #616

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.

They probably already have them. There’s no advantage to announcing that. Similar to Israel. Regardless there’s very probably multiple USA nuclear subs surrounding the place.

> There’s no advantage to announcing that

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cmCKJi3CKGE&t=226s

There's a huge reason for Taiwan to announce that: their primary opponent already has nuclear weapons!

The reason Israel is heavily encouraged to maintain nuclear strategic ambiguity is an attempt to dissuade the entire Middle East from developing nuclear weapons in response.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#623

Post by glenneroo » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:53 PM UTC

thereddaikon wrote: post #611

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

You speak as if you have some special insider knowledge.

I personally would guess that the 9-dash line also has something to do with them wanting to take Taiwan.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#624

Post by jopsen » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:55 PM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #364

jopsen wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we face the reality: Taiwan is a vassal state. The decision makers are simply owned by the US. The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! It's a classic Russian talking point that Ukraine has no agency. You're making the same argument for Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. They could build nukes. They could opt to do nothing an…

>Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. Unless its leaders and ruling class are owned by US. It wouldn't be the first time US is directing some puppet governments.

The west isn't full of US puppet governments. That's just propaganda.

Most of us like the US. And we knowingly elect politicians who will promote a good relationship with the US.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#625

Post by luthus001 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:56 PM UTC

re-thc wrote: post #354

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan China does. Xi does not. Trump has been the bailout to Xi that China’s wolf warriors and Putin were to America after the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.

> China does. Xi does not. At the end of the day the leadership is who makes the decisions. The notion of a "country" does not.

That's too simplistic. Even a dictator has to balance many things - the loyalty and competency of his generals, prevailing sentiments of his troops and of society in general, and much more. Large scale dissent is problematic even to authoritarians. An extended strike by key workers, like truck drivers, could cause outright collapse and regime change, so can a military coup by disgruntled troops.

What Xi has said so far may have been misrepresented by the media, and exaggerated to rally public support for the new Cold War and for more military spending. What Xi actually said is he would not allow formal independence of Taiwan, and that he prefers closer relations/integration with Taiwan for an eventual "reunited" outcome, saying nothing of the status quo or that he would change it by force. For as long as the economic deterrence exists, I highly doubt that a war would happen over Taiwan barring one of 2 scenarios: 1)Taiwan declears formal independence by amending its Constitution, or 2) western troops, bases, or "security guarantees" are established over Taiwan

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#626

Post by jopsen » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 3:58 PM UTC

DeathArrow wrote: post #343

jopsen wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? A managed escalation would blockade China, or at least ensure the rest of the free world never trades with China again. Similarly, a local conflict could ensure chip facilities in Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. The US doesn't have to win a hot conflict. Just start a cold…

>A managed escalation would blockade China, or at least ensure the rest of the free world never trades with China again. And how will the free world replace goods and raw materials they now buy from China? Apart from NATO countries all the rest will continue to do business with China. They do not care about the quarells between US, EU and China.

Probably, maybe, who knows.

If a collective west made transitive trade embargoes, anything could happen.

But yes, the world is growing, and the west is a smaller piece of the pie than we used to be.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#627

Post by arandomusername » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 4:01 PM UTC

LPisGood wrote: post #329

riehwvfbk wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any sources for all this? Wanting to end a war that's been at a stalemate for 3 years doesn't mean sympathy or treason. It can also simply be a pragmatic decision. The "getting stuffed" thing would be big words from a nearly bankrupt company, don't you think? Intel's investors will take whatever deal that gives them the biggest return on their dollar.

> Wanting to end a war that's been at a stalemate for 3 years doesn't mean sympathy or treason I find it so hard to take this point seriously. Without security guarantees, you are asking Ukraine to “end the war” and give up massive territory and give Russia plenty of time to re-arm. They have broken treaties before. Even still, why should the US care if Ukraine wants to keep defending itself from Russian aggression?…

> Without security guarantees, you are asking Ukraine to “end the war” and give up massive territory and give Russia plenty of time to re-arm

Plenty of time for Ukraine to re-arm as well. Ukraine is the one kidnapping men on the streets to send to the front line.

> ROI of sending Ukraine our old equipment

But that's not the only thing getting sent.

> we would be abandoning an ally

What alliance did US and Ukraine have? They were friendly but there wasn't any sort of alliance. No defense pact.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#628

Post by smaug7 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 4:02 PM UTC

thereddaikon wrote: post #611

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over…

This to me is the correct answer. A lot of times in war it's not about logic or reason, it's about emotion and feeling. Throughout Chinese history, a leader is only "legitimate" or dare I say, have the Mandate from Heaven, when they have unified the country under one banner. It is a stain on their authority that there is "rouge" state outside the CCP's control. They will do anything to unify their country for national pride.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#629

Post by high_na_euv » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 4:03 PM UTC

echoangle wrote: post #617

diamondfist25 wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwanese here Taiwan Econ has stagnated for decades. Hence the top low birth rate in the world Avg salary of tw is 1.5k usd. The same as 20-30 yrs ago

Just not true. Average monthly wage: https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-mo... 2000 - 42k NTD 2023 - 58k NTD Converted to USD: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo... 2000 - 1270 USD 2023 - 1870 USD

Only 50% increase? Thats very bad

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#630

Post by generic92034 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 4:06 PM UTC

Iolaum wrote: post #590

UltraSane wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.

What unpredictable things has Trump's administration done regarding states that were considered the US's adversaries before his administration took over?

https://gizmodo.com/trumps-defense-secretary-hegseth-orders-...