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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#621

Post by Zambyte »

fprog wrote: post #594
fsloth wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we look at history of innovation and invention it’s very typical the original discovery and final productization are done by different people. For many reasons, but a lot of them are universal I would say. E.g. Oppenheimer’s team created the bomb, then following experts finetuned the subsequent weapon systems and payload designs. Etc.

Except OpenAI hasn’t yet finished discovery on its true goal: AGI. I wonder if they risk plateauing at a local maximum.

I'm genuinely curious: what do you expect an "AGI" system to be able to do that we can't do with today's technology?

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#622

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

zaphirplane wrote: post #489
mtnGoat wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My experience differs greatly, company I used to work for did NDA, alpha, beta projects with Google. I was always impressed at how little anyone knew, the fact that nothing was delivered on time, scope creep to the point of almost everything being delayed and most projects were not well thought out nor well architected. I warned one API update would break things if it went live, and it did. Why was the guy from anoth…

But ask a dynamic programming question and watch it get smashed out None of the points you raise relate to being really good at dynamic programming

Yeah, and if you have any problem estimating the golfball carrying capacity of a schoolbus, Google are your go-to guys.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#623

Post by cthalupa »

luma wrote: post #585
fnordpiglet wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is a very short term advantage. And Anthropic gets aws credits which would you rather have?

Given Amazon's no show in the AI space? Azure. By a mile.

Except if you're Anthropic or OpenAI you don't care about what your compute provider has done in the AI space - you care about the compute power they can give you.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#624

Post by luma »

cthalupa wrote: post #623
luma wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given Amazon's no show in the AI space? Azure. By a mile.

Except if you're Anthropic or OpenAI you don't care about what your compute provider has done in the AI space - you care about the compute power they can give you.

That's exactly what I'm talking about: https://i.imgur.com/sZ3tniY.jpeg

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#625

Post by vasco »

itsoktocry wrote: post #609
kinnth wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has now evolved beyond just the science and it's biggest issue is in the productization. Finding use cases for what's already available ALONG with new models will be where success lies. ChatGPT is the number 1 brand in AI and as such needs to learn what it's selling, not how its technology works. It always sucks when mission and vision don't align with the nerds ideas, but I think it's probably the best move for b…

> ChatGPT is the number 1 brand in AI and as such needs to learn what it's selling, not how its technology works. I'm not as in tune as some people here so: don't they need both? With the rate at which things are moving, how can it be otherwise?

I guess their point is you already have a lot out there to create new products, and you can still read papers you just won't be writing them.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#626

Post by luma »

lenerdenator wrote: post #593
luma wrote: post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that the OAI investment was not a good investment for MS?

Have they earned a return on it yet? Seriously asking; I've purchased a GitHub CoPilot license subscription but I don't know what their sales numbers are doing on AI in general. It's to be seen if it can be made more cost-efficient to deliver to consumers.

Checking MSFT price, seems like the market thinks they made the right move and the shareholders are for sure seeing a return.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#627

Post by jagrsw »

Zambyte wrote: post #621
fprog wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except OpenAI hasn’t yet finished discovery on its true goal: AGI. I wonder if they risk plateauing at a local maximum.

I'm genuinely curious: what do you expect an "AGI" system to be able to do that we can't do with today's technology?

Some first ideas coming to mind:

Engineering Level:

  Solve CO2 Levels
  End sickness/death
  Enhance cognition by integrating with willing minds.
  Safe and efficient interplanetary travel.
  Harness vastly higher levels of energy (solar, nuclear) for global benefit.
Science:

  Uncover deeper insights into the laws of nature.
  Explore fundamental mysteries like the simulation hypothesis, Riemann hypothesis, multiverse theory, and the existence of white holes.
  Effective SETI
Misc:

  End of violent conflicts
  Fair yet liberal resource allocation (if still needed), "from scarcity to abundance"

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#628

Post by kranke155 »

cm2187 wrote: post #496
samspenc wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few years ago? Probably catastrophic, he was Chief Scientist after all. Now? Probably not too much, they have enough investment, and additionally talented people wanting to join. I mean, Andrej Karpathy also joined and left OpenAI twice and it didn't impact operations much. I think OpenAI is now where Google was at or just before its IPO, a few key players leaving isn't going to impact them as much as it would have…

That may be true in term of engineering, but I think everyone had switched to google as their search engine by then. I am not sure openai has captured the market quite in the same way, as I think people are still mostly experimenting with AI, the integration time in any large company is much slower than the rate of progress of AI. And it's not clear to me that there is much of a vendor lockin to use the openai API vs…

Its not really obvious quite yet that the current gen AI can make money. I dont know that many people who use it, not yet anyway.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#629

Post by criddell »

nabla9 wrote: post #471
fnordpiglet wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

There are no moats in deep learning, everything changes so fast. They have the next iteration of GPT Sutskever helped to finalize. OpenAI lost it's future unless they find new same caliber people.

Isn't access to massive datasets and computation the moat? If you and your very talented friends wanted to build something like GPT-4, could you?

It's going to get orders of magnitude less expensive, but for now, the capital requirements feel like a pretty deep moat.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#630

Post by trashtester »

itsoktocry wrote: post #618
trashtester wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

> Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Bank fees don't disappear into the ether when they're collected, so I doubt they have this much affect. Oh, made my very first retail purchase with Bitcoin the other day. While the process was pretty slick and easy, the network charged $15.00 in fees. Long way to go until "free".

> Bank fees don't disappear into the ether when they're collected, so I doubt they have this much affect.

1-3% was intended as a ceiling for what cryptocurrency could bring to the economy, after adjusting for the reduction in inflation once those costs are gone.

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