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We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

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Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#621

Post by TheRoque »

jader201 wrote: post #616
TheRoque wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The opposite is fairly naive. Software development is not only dumping tokens into a text file. To have a significant impact on the market, it should do much, much, much more: compile and test code, automatically assess the quality of what its done, be aware of the current design trends (if in UI/UX), ideally innovate, it should also be able to run a debugger, inspect all the variables, and deduce from there how it g…

Yeah, I definitely am not on team “We’re Doomed”, but I also can’t say definitively that I’m on team “We’re Fine” either. I think there are merits to both arguments, and I think it’s possible that we’ll see things move towards either direction in the next 1/5/10 years. My point is, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of some jobs being at risk within the next 1/5/10 years.

Some jobs are definitely at risk, I was just making the case for software development. But just like you, even after writing all this, there's still some anxiety.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#623

Post by timacles »

dmd wrote: post #49
NikolaNovak wrote: post #31

I'm in IT but nowhere near AI/ML/NN. The speed of user-visible progress last 12 months is astonishing. From my firm conviction 18 months ago that this type of stuff is 20+ years away; to these days wondering if Vernon Vinge's technological singularity is not only possible but coming shortly. If feels some aspects of it have already hit the IT world - it's always been an exhausting race to keep up with modern technolo…

I also don't believe LLMs are "conscious", but I also don't know what that means, and I have yet to see a definition of "statistically guessing next word" that cannot be applied to what a human brain does to generate the next word.

I'm sorry but in what world is a human interaction is just generating the most statistically likely next word?

I can't even being to go into this.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#624

Post by ilaksh »

jameslk wrote: post #372

Kids are using tools like these to learn. Who gets to control the information in these models that are taught? Especially around political topics? Not an issue now, but maybe in the future if these tools end up becoming full blown replacements of educators and educational resources.

I am sure a few home school people have started to lean heavily on ChatGPT. There is also the full blown efforts of Kahn academy with ChatGPT "Khanmigo".

https://www.khanacademy.org/khan-labs

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#625

Post by hexaga »

jshmrsn wrote: post #445
vdfs wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one mean difference in LLM, is what Micheal Scott said in The Office: "Sometimes I'll start a sentence, and I don't even know where it's going. I just hope I find it along the way. Like an improv conversation. An improversation" Human will know what they want to express, choosing words to express it might be similar to LLM process of choosing words, but for LLM it doesn't have that "Here is what i know to exp…

I can only speak from my own internal experience, but don’t your unspoken thoughts take form and exist as language in your mind? If you imagine taking the increasingly common pattern to “think through the problem before giving your answer”, but hiding the pre-answer text from the user, then it seems like that would pretty analogous to how humans think before communicating.

> don’t your unspoken thoughts take form and exist as language in your mind?

Not really. More often than not my thoughts take form as sense impressions that aren't readily translatable into language. A momentary discomfort making me want to shift posture - i.e., something in the domain of skin-feel / proprioception / fatigue / etc, with a 'response' in the domain of muscle commands and expectation of other impressions like the aforementioned.

The space of thoughts people can think is wider than what language can express, for lack of a better way to phrase it. There are thoughts that are not , and my gut feeling is that the vast majority are of this form.

I suppose you could call all that an internal language, but I feel as though that is stretching the definition quite a bit.

> it seems like that would pretty analogous to how humans think before communicating

Maybe some, but it feels reductive.

My best effort at explaining my thought process behind the above line: trying to make sense of what you wrote, I got a 'flash impression' of a ??? shaped surface 'representing / being' the 'ways I remember thinking before speaking' and a mess of implicit connotation that escapes me when I try to write it out, but was sufficient to immediately produce a summary response.

Why does it seem like a surface? Idk. Why that particular visual metaphor and not something else? Idk. It came into my awareness fully formed. Closer to looking at something and recognizing it than any active process.

That whole cycle of recognition as sense impression -> response seems to me to differ in character to the kind of hidden chain of thought you're describing.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#626

Post by famouswaffles »

tessierashpool wrote: post #513
sebzim4500 wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I asked several of the company’s top brass if someone could comfortably work there if they didn’t believe AGI was truly coming—and that its arrival would mark one of the greatest moments in human history—most executives didn’t think so. No shit? How many people worked on the apollo program and believed that (i) Getting to the moon is impossible or (ii) Landing on the moon is no big deal

that's completely apples to oranges. OpenAI is in the business of leveraging the utility of large language models. that's their moon. if they think instead that they're in the business of creating some kind of ridiculous robot god, that is definitely interesting information about them. because that's no moon.

>OpenAI is in the business of leveraging the utility of large language models.

No Open AI is in the business of creating their vision of Artificial General Intelligence (which they define as that is generally smarter than humans ) and they believe LLMs are a viable path. This has always been the case. It's not some big secret and they have many posts which talk upon their expectations and goals in this space.

https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond

https://openai.com/blog/governance-of-superintelligence

https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment

GPT as a product comes second and it shows. These are the guys that sat on by far the most performant Language Model for 8 months red teaming before even saying anything about it.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#627

Post by wojciechpolak »

It would be cool if one day you could choose voices of famous characters, like Darth Vader, Bender from Futurama, or Johnny Silverhand (Keanu), instead of the usual boring ones. Copyrights might be a hurdle for this, but perhaps with local instances of assistants, it could become possible.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#628

Post by ilaksh »

jackallis wrote: post #502

i am terrified now. at the rate this is going, i am sure it will plateau at somepoint, only thing that will stop/slow down progress is computation power.

Yes but since LLMs are a very specific application that are heavily heavily dependent on memory and there is massive investment pressure, there will be multiple newish paradigms for memory-centric computing and or other radical new approaches such as analog computing that will be pushed from research into products in the next several years.

You will see stepwise orders of magnitude improvements in efficiency and speed as innovations come to fruition.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#629

Post by bottlepalm »

tomrod wrote: post #116
dmd wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also don't believe LLMs are "conscious", but I also don't know what that means, and I have yet to see a definition of "statistically guessing next word" that cannot be applied to what a human brain does to generate the next word.

Your brain doesn't solely pick the next best word. As best as I understand it, the brain has an external state of the world that constantly updates, paired to an internal model predicting the next best word. Which is why we can create the counterfactual that "The Cowboys should have won last night" and it has implicit meaning. Current LLM models don't have an external state of the world, which is why folks like LeCun…

ChatGPT wasn't trained on only guessing 'the next word'. ChatGPT was trained on the best total output for the given input.

The 'next word' is just intermediate state. Internal to the model, it knows where it is going. Each inference just revives the previous state.

Re: We are beginning to roll out new voice and image capabilities in ChatGPT

#630

Post by RivieraKid »

pixl97 wrote: post #557
RivieraKid wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there will be plenty of work for a while because manual labor - construction, healthcare (doctors, nurses), food preparation, tradespeople - will be hard to replace in the foreseeable future. I see UBI as a solution to inequality (real problem) not as a solution to lack of jobs (not a problem). AI will probably lead to reduction of inequality and therefore there will be less need for UBI. In theory, the "ment…

>, the "mental" workers who get replaced by AI could simply move to manual jobs and total production and average wages would go up Why would manual job average wages go up? You're increasing the size of the labor pool.

Total production would increase (AI will allow us to make more with less) and I'm expecting the capital / labor share to remain stable.

An analogy:

Imagine that half of the labor force makes cars, the other half creates software. The average person buys 1 car and 1 software per year. There's a breakthrough, AI can now be used to create software almost for free. It can even make 2x more software per year. The programmers switch to making cars. So now the economy is producing 2 cars and 2 softwares per worker per year! Salaries have now doubled thanks to technological progress.

You could argue that this will increase inequality and all of the productivity gains will go to the top 1%. I don't think so.

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