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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#621

Post by lottin »

eanzenberg wrote: post #554
cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The only people who lose money are selling in a panic (or buying during a rut). CV has been with us (in the western world) for months now, and people haven't been dropping dead. So unless you believe 2% of the world will die then sure, buy your bunker and your guns and ammo and wait it out. If you are a bit more level headed, you can't go wrong with buying and holding now (and when times were/are/will be) good again.…

Exactly right. After all humans co-exist with much more serious illnesses in many parts of the world. Somehow people adapt to circumstances and life goes on.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#622

Post by csomar »

Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years:

1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%.

2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%.

3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Total returns are -6%.

My thoughts:

- Tech used to go up more and down more. Now it went up more and down less. This is likely to encourage and push traditional investors to invest more in tech. They were afraid from tech because of the bloody downturns. Now tech holds better in a downturn, so that argument is no longer there.

- Europe is likely to be hit harder from this crisis since they rely a lot on Tourism. That means a harder recession. Europe tech sector is weak and unlikely to match its American counterpart growth in a EU slowdown.

- China might be the biggest loser in this. The world might realize we are depending too much on China. The US government might force company to build locally or outsource to friendlier countries they want to boost. China is not going to the dark ages but might face a slow down; though a social revolution is definitely not out of the question.

- The oil crisis, if prolonged, is going to change some countries. Look at Venezuela. Russia, Middle East, Algeria, Canada, etc... These countries might face budget challenges they have never been through before if oil goes below $20 for an extended time.

- The US tech sector being the only good-yield field and becoming a safe haven for investment in a world of worry and chaos will boom into a bubble of untold proportions.

Disclaimer: Not a professional advice. Might lose part of your money or all of your capital. Might be a total hopium from someone is the tech sector seeing lots of red today.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#623

Post by thefringthing »

csomar wrote: post #622

Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years: 1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%. 2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%. 3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Tota…

The practice of referring to increases in the price of an instrument as "gains" but any decline as a "correction" is bizarre.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#624

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

ncallaway wrote: post #588
arcticbull wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason their numbers are lower than elsewhere is the widespread testing is catching the low-grade infections, the asymptomatic and the so on. Those cases are not reflected in, for instance, US numbers as there hasn't been any wide-scale testing. In a huge quantity of people you wind up with sniffles, a cough or mild flu-like symptoms. They don't go in, they don't get tested, so they're left out of the denominator…

That is one factor in the low CFR, but it's far too early to say it is the only factor. It totally fails to be responsive to the low percentage of resolved cases in the South Korean numbers. If the only explanation was that they were catching far more low-grade symptoms, then we should see a lower CFR with the resolved cases rising rapidly. I hope that what you state is the case, and their CFR remains where it is whi…

They could just be conservative about reporting resolution.

The reality seems to be that if you're not seriously ill after 7-10 days, it's unlikely you're going to end up on the critical list - never mind dead.

But cases aren't being marked resolved for 2-3 weeks, just in case.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#625

Post by ttul »

I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs.

So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund, keep buying. As the market falls, you're getting a discount. If you need to retire in the next five years, you should already have started moving out of equities. It's too late to change that now.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#626

Post by totalZero »

airstrike wrote: post #400
throwsprtsdy wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Piling in on the buy side because of a fear of missing out counts as panicking.

That's hardly symmetrical to the fear of losing the money that you have already invested – investors feel they have no choice but to sell before it gets worse, whereas in the rally you can always choose not to buy.

Short squeezes are akin to declines in terms of the psychology involved.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#627

Post by organsnyder »

thefringthing wrote: post #623
csomar wrote: post #622

Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years: 1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%. 2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%. 3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Tota…

The practice of referring to increases in the price of an instrument as "gains" but any decline as a "correction" is bizarre.

We really could refer to all of them as "corrections".

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#629

Post by elihu »

disease wrote: post #263
walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

In my experience it's always good to buy when sentiment is bad. If this is just a minor dip that will bounce back up, then you got a nice little discount on your equities. If it is the start of a major downturn then you have taken the first step towards buying at a greater and greater discount and can continue buying all the way down. I don't consider this to be timing the market. You should always be investing but w…

I do something similar, which is that I reduce my 401k contribution when I think the market is overpriced, and increase it when stocks are down.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#630

Post by csomar »

thefringthing wrote: post #623
csomar wrote: post #622

Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years: 1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%. 2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%. 3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Tota…

The practice of referring to increases in the price of an instrument as "gains" but any decline as a "correction" is bizarre.

It's not. It's trading lingo. If the pricing was on a downturn "losses", then an upward move is a correction.
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