Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would completely agree with that, but for some reason it isn't as politically do-able as this rent control legislation was.
> I would completely agree with that, but for some reason it isn't as politically do-able as this rent control legislation was. The reason is that landlords know exactly what rent control does. Landlords know that the tenants with the strongest interest in local housing costs are the people who already live there and plan to continue to do so indefinitely. Rent control is a method of buying them off without actually…
California Approves Statewide Rent Control
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Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#622Earlier quoted context omitted.
Let's just not even talk about the fact that regulation is the reason why housing is scarce, let's just assume California is 100% at capacity. How the hell does rent control increase turnabout? It just let's people who got in at the right time have their status as a resident enforced indefinitely, when there are plenty of people who are willing and able to pay far more in order to live there.
Many parts of California are already beyond 100% capacity for certain pieces of infrastructure like transportation, schools, water, and sewers. So I only support more housing in those areas if building permits are directly coupled with equivalent infrastructure upgrades.
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#623I am a landlord in Oregon, but not California. The curious, although ultimately predictable, outcome of the new rent control measure in Oregon is that while I have historically had an arrangement with my property management to be restrained in annual rent increases, they are now advising a default annual increase of the maximum allowed (7 percent before inflation). This is because larger adjustments cannot be made if…
FWIW rent control advocates agree with you.[1] It’s a point in which the “PHIMBY” left[2] and the real estate lobby agree.
The reasoning is that it’s not actually a full rent control bill (it just stops the most extreme cases of gouging) which is why the California Apartment Association stopped opposing it. Thus it doesn’t go nearly far enough to stabilize rents.
I know there are a lot of supply siders on HN champing at the bit to dump on rent control, but this particular bill is a bit more nuanced.
[1] https://twitter.com/rcmoya84/status/1171972636294840320?s=21
[2] https://www.kqed.org/news/11731580/forget-yimby-vs-nimby-cou...
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#624Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s not so easy, how do you prove this? What if someone’s on vacation or has mail being delivered there etc. or comes in once in a while or Airbnb’s it’s much harder to impliment I think than it sounds.
Well, what you do is get rid of prop 13 and do yearly appraisals. Then you just tax the property on what it's worth, and if a landlord refuses to rent, then the tax is now a vacancy tax. The real problem is we're not taxing these properties at the true value they could provide to society, so a massive market inefficiency exists.
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#625Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was under the impression that some rents can be increased during the lease. I do not think it is only a renewal event, by law. > Rent control deters the creation of new housing. I keep seeing this repeated but I don't understand. Why does rent control deter creation of new housing? > This reduce in supply raises the price But you've glossed over why supply is reduced. I don't see any reason that supply would be red…
> Why does rent control deter creation of new housing? If you have a lot of money and you want to build/buy a rental property, would you do it in a) a growing city with no rent control where your discounted future cash flows are unbounded or b) a city where there is a law placing a ceiling on your returns. All else being equal, you are going to choose the city without rent control to build your new housing units in (…
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#626Earlier quoted context omitted.
A shipping container is 320 square feet. Two pods can be joined into a single 740 square foot unit. That's a total cost of $80,000. Let's round to $100,000. Assume a rental yield of 12%. $1000 a month for a brand new 740 square foot apartment in the middle of San Francisco. Plus with modern finishes that are frankly much nicer than anything you'll find in the low-end SF rental market. I'd imagine quite a lot of peopl…
Why do you think construction price, and not land price, is the limiting factor? I'm in a high-demand city in Canada. The house I'm in right now is worth about $70k. The land it sits on is worth $900k. Shipping containers aren't going to help with that.
Don't know where you live, but I doubt it's more expensive land than San Francisco, where the average acre of land costs $3.2 million[1]. Taking that acre of land, save half the area for green-space and courtyard. Use half the footprint for shipping containers. Stack the containers 8 high.
You now have 242 double-pod units. The amortized land cost per unit is $13,000. Assuming a generous rental yield of 12%, the land cost only adds $130 a month to the rent. That's hardly anything for a 720 square foot apartment.
The lesson is that even San Francisco land costs are no match for the power of high-rise high-density housing.
[1] https://www.6sqft.com/study-shows-huge-disparity-in-u-s-urba...
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#627Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not all regulations are equal. Merely because some past law was bad does not mean all future laws will be bad. Saying that rent control is bad because past zoning (or other law) was bad doesn't make sense.
Rent control has never been good anywhere. Yet places keep trying it expecting something different. Supply and demand is one of the simplest concepts in economics and yet rent control does nothing to increase supply. In fact, it decreases supply by not shifting prices higher to induce more production.
That's what makes it one of the weakest. The housing market does not follow a standard supply-demand curve for a number of reasons.
> Rent control has never been good anywhere.
Citation needed. Rent control has helped a lot of people find stability in a time of need, enabling less trauma, stress and improving chances of class mobility.
> In fact, it decreases supply by not shifting prices higher to induce more production.
Is this a real effect that you can measure in the real world? Has this ever happened in reality before? Or is this a theoretical concept? One that you assume plays out under ideal circumstances and that I assume are never met in real life?
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#628Earlier quoted context omitted.
>>> (If you're in California, you should also know that the new law punishes your landlord for trying to do you a solid and keep your rent stable across lease terms.) The CA law allows the rental price to reset to market rate for a new tenant, so unless the landlord doing you a solid was planning to stick you specifically with a rent increase down the line to recapture the present solid, they can still keep your rent…
I am a CA landlord of a single house. Keeping track of “market rate” is an annoying exercise and I tend to just leave the rate unchanged for multiple years (3-5) then bring it up in one go. The last time I did this the rent increased ~12%. Before, the tenant was happy because they got below market rent for 4 years, and I was happy because I could defer pricing work without long term penalty or risking a move-out duri…
The tenant still gets below market rent for 4 years, you and can defer pricing work for as long as you want without penalty or risking a move out during a busy year.
I think you might be overly worried for your situation. Your 12% example is an amortized difference of at most 1.5% compared to the new 7% cap (1.12yroot3 vs 1.07yroot5).
Re: California Approves Statewide Rent Control
#629If your rent increase gets capped by rent control, your ability to stay at a limited scale of operation and just add to the price gets squeezed, and that motivates making more capital investments in property(and specifically in vertical upgrades, since horizontal expansion puts them in a land bidding war). It hits investment properties run by large companies the most, and challenges them to use land more effectively to stay competitive, in the same way that higher minimum wage challenges companies to use labor more effectively.
However, we still need an SB50 or successor bill to deal with the build restrictions. The landlords and developers can demand building big(and they do already in many cases) but they're held back by zoning laws put in place by NIMBY residents. The trick is that instituting rent control does something change the outlook of the NIMBYs too, since their property value has a relationship to the value of rentals. Rental rates and turnover slow down = property values slow down = their house becomes less of an investment.
So it's a good first step either way.