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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#621

Post by mikedilger »

megaremote wrote: post #614
mikedilger wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TL;DR : Trump is a 'mixed bag' but for right wingers the cost-benefit analysis surpassed that of Hillary Clinton, even though there were heavy costs. I'm not sure we should be delving into politics on hacker news. But if it's okay for the goose, allow the gander to retort. I hear you expressing your frustration and believe me I am fully aware that many Americans are very frustrated. Especially people on the left who…

> Take myself for example. I have had my IQ tested three times, and the lowest value was 147. I would say that objectively speaking I am not dumb. I must qualify this with the fact that I was a child all three times so there was a correction factor involved which would not apply now, so my IQ is probably lower today. What you say is a great explanation, and makes sense, but then you go on about IQ as if it means some…

Thanks for the first part of your comment. I assume you are arguing that being "dumb" is not coorelated with IQ because IQ isn't meaningful. If so, I politely disagree but I'm not motivated to take on that argument.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#622

Post by rayiner »

Fomite wrote: post #546
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

Or "civil service"

There is no such thing in the Constitution. “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.“ Contrast France’s Constitution, where there is a President (Title II) separate from the Government (Title III). To the extent there is a civil service trying to be independent of the President, “deep stars” is a colorful but not altogether inaccurate term.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#623

Post by ryacko »

kaitai wrote: post #567
ryacko wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you don’t have to play ball in order to be cycled from public sector to private sector to high level government positions along with the attendant corporate lobbying to Congress on approving various government positions? It’s a pipeline and someone has their hands on the valves.

I don't quite understand what you're trying to say. Could you elaborate? For instance, in Washington DC there is certainly a pipeline from public to private to high level to lobbying to etc., but I think what the +parent posters is referring to encompasses the scientists at the EPA and the USDA, the doctors and nurses and managers at the VA, etc etc. They tend to get a job there after a bit of moving around and then…

You do realize I’m replying to a post about how the more relevant term is “Agency Directors”?

Now you’re replying to me about high-level HR decisions biasing the processes of government agencies. I don’t think there is anything to elaborate?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#624

Post by Ericson2314 »

quotemstr wrote: post #281
throwaway5752 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…

The great depression was after one of those wars. I think you can make a case that the global economic and social excesses of the 1920s led to a hard crash, the rise of aggressive ideological movements, and, eventually, the second world war. The first world war was something else entirely, the last gasp of the old "Concert of Europe" balance of power stuff. After the first world war, the world was a completely differ…

The 20s weren't great economically in Europe. In Germany the 30s were better economically I'm afraid to say.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#625

Post by Ericson2314 »

adventured wrote: post #133
throwaway5752 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…

> The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. That hasn't been exhausted even in the slightest. The Fed has the exact same tool at its disposal as it did in 2008: it controls the global reserve currency and can run an annual trillion dollar QE program for years as necessary, forcing the rest of the world to partially foot the bill of that QE program to the benefit of…

IMO QE is insanely regressive because of most people's non participation in the financial system, and thus is a "supply side wolf in keynsian clothing". Looking at all the unprofitable startups and other investment vehicles of the current cycle, combined with uneven increases in productivity and tenuous shitty jobs being the bulk of job growth shows how we've clearly don't have the demand and the money isn't trickling down enough to make it.

With interest rates near zero, and the old monitarist avenues generally exhausted with this procyclic hangover, we have nothing left to do but the real ask fiscal shit jobs guarantee or UBI.

Hopefully people realize work sucks and it would be nice if computers were used to their full potential so we get UBI instead and then we can write expert systems and reduce meanial labor and other useful shit.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#626

Post by justsee »

thwythwy wrote: post #616
justsee wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deep state is very much a thing: https://billmoyers.com/2014/02/21/anatomy-of-the-deep-state/ Dismissing it as a thing and calling it plain ole bureaucracy is quite a naive worldview.

Bureaucracy does moderate the effects of political leaders in exactly the ways the markets expected. It's extreme to ascribe a "worldview," no less a "naive" one, and it's a failure to appreciate context that you'd cite Bill Moyers' usage of the term when most people here know we're talking about Breitbart's usage. They each describe very different processes, institutional actors, etc., and yes, Breitbart's usage is…

Excellent response.

You're right - I was responding to an imagined position in an unrelated / irrelevant political context, whereas a more careful reading makes it clear what we're discussing here is the moderating effects of bureaucracy.

My apologies for adding noise instead of considering contributions more carefully!

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#627

Post by 18pfsmt »

throw0101a wrote: post #488
ozim wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are couple more points why it would not turn into recession. Last 10 years people bought a lot more ETFs so it is not like someone will call their broker screaming "SELL SELL SELL". Online brokers are a thing now but you have much more data visible in online interfaces. Like fees for selling all your stuff "RIGHT NOW". With more information easily available and people understanding what ETFs are, there is a hug…

> Last 10 years people bought a lot more ETFs so it is not like someone will call their broker screaming "SELL SELL SELL". Online brokers are a thing now but you have much more data visible in online interfaces. Like fees for selling all your stuff "RIGHT NOW". Your faith in people remaining rational when their 'returns' are displayed as -5/10/15/20% is adorable. :) It will be interesting to see what happens with the…

>is adorable. :)

This kind of condescending garbage does not belong on HN. It's poison that needs to be kept away from this site. Please stop the know-it-all, 20-something, rhetoric.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#628

Post by AlexCoventry »

asdf21 wrote: post #586
redler wrote: post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, the Idiocracy[1] effect. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy

is being a genetic dead end really all that smart though?

Species evolve into local optima all the time. Clonal reproduction is a common evolutionary dead end.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#629

Post by learc83 »

yellowapple wrote: post #611
learc83 wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't the bankruptcy trustees come after the owner when they see that the machine was sold far below value? They do something similar in personal bankruptcy.

Selling things below value is pretty typical in a liquidation/bankruptcy scenario, though.

Yeah but there are limits. If I'm about to go bankrupt and I sell my $700k house to my brother for $150k, the trustee isn't going to let me get away with that.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#630

Post by jquery »

deegles wrote: post #523
refurb wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m no fan of the President, but Paul Krugman’s rants have gone from heated to just bizarre at this point. Shows that even Noble laureate’s aren’t immune from going off the rails.

Do you think it's more likely that a Nobel laureate has gone off the rails, or that they are using the same skills and knowledge that got them a Nobel to analyze the current situation?

He wouldn’t be the first to have gone off the rails. With genius often comes instability and mental illness.
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