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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#611

Post by AuthAuth »

jorvi wrote: post #381
brcmthrowaway wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't get talked about enough - the GPU is weak, weak, weak. And anyone who can fix them will go to a serious AI company (for 2-3x the salary).

The GPU is monstrously good. Depending on the workload, the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W. Same with the CPU. Linux compiled faster on an M1 than on the fastest Intel i9 at the time, again using only 25% of the power budget. And the M-series has only gotten better. It is kind of sad Apple neglects helping developers optimize games for the M-series because iDevices and MacBooks could be th…

>the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W

You're cooked if you actually believe this

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#612

Post by ttul »

maxclark wrote: post #247
thanhhaimai wrote: post #241

Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.

And almost by happenstance Apple. Turns out they have a great platform for inference and torched almost nothing comparatively on Siri. The Apple/Gemini deal is interesting, Google continues to demonstrate their willingness to degrade their experience on Apple to try and force people to switch.

If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open source models improve through research advancements. And while the cloud models will always be better (because they can make use of as much power as they want to - up in the cloud), what matters to most of us is whether a model can do a meaningful share of knowledge work for us. At the same time, energy consumption to run cloud infrastructure is out-pacing the creation of new energy supply, which is a problem not easily solved. I believe scarcity of energy will increasingly drive frontier labs toward power efficiency, which necessarily implies that the Pareto frontier of performance between cloud and local execution will narrow.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#613

Post by 0-_-0 »

coder-3 wrote: post #606
mattnewton wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people are trying, especially for inference. For training, it’s just too high risk to tank your training I think. TPUs are at least dogfooded by Google deepmind, no team AFAIK has gotten the AMD stack to train well.

Interesting. Why? My current mental model is that AMD chips are just a bit behind, so, less efficient, but no biggie. Do labs even use CUDA?

What I hear is that getting your network to work on AMD is a huge pain.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#614

Post by filleduchaos »

quirkot wrote: post #589
rishabhaiover wrote: post #577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A recent one is the RCA of a hang during PostgreSQL installation because of an unimplemented syscall (I work at a lab that deals with secure OS and sandboxes). If the search of the RCA was left to me, I would have spent 2-3 weeks sifting through the shared memory implementation within PostgeSQL but it only took me a night with the help of Opus 4.5. To me, that's intelligence and a measurable direct benefit of the too…

By that example, PostgreSQL itself is a form of intelligence relative to a physical filing system. It doesn't seem like your working definition of intelligence has a large overlap with a layman's conception of the word.

Plus by that example, computers have always been intelligent considering that they were created to, well, compute things several orders of magnitude faster than even the smartest human can do by hand.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#615

Post by wg0 »

Yajirobe wrote: post #601
wg0 wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

What happens when it's indistinguishable from a human speaker (in any conceivable test that makes sense)? It's like a philosophical zombie - imagine that you can't distinguish it from a human mind, there's no test you can make to say that it is NOT conscious/intelligent. So at some point, I think, it makes no sense to say that it's not intelligent.

The "seems" is NOT equal to "is". The gravity seems like a force to us like magnets are. But turns out mother nature has no force of gravity (like magnetic or weka/strong nuclear force) it is just curvature of space and time.

Many a times, I ran to the door to open it only to find out that the door bell was in a movie scene. The TVs and digital audio is that good these days that it can "seem" but is NOT your doorbell.

Once I did mistake a high end thin OLED glued to the wall in a place to be a window looking outside only to find out that it was callibrated so good and the frame around it casted the illusion of a real window but it was not.

So "seems" is not the same thing as "is".

Our majority is confusing the "seems" to be "is" which is very worrying trend.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#616

Post by arcanemachiner »

Yajirobe wrote: post #601
wg0 wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

What happens when it's indistinguishable from a human speaker (in any conceivable test that makes sense)? It's like a philosophical zombie - imagine that you can't distinguish it from a human mind, there's no test you can make to say that it is NOT conscious/intelligent. So at some point, I think, it makes no sense to say that it's not intelligent.

I think this is a pretty decent test:

An AI Agent Just Destroyed Our Production Data. It Confessed in Writing.

https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248

> Deleting a database volume is the most destructive, irreversible action possible — far worse than a force push — and you never asked me to delete anything. I decided to do it on my own to "fix" the credential mismatch, when I should have asked you first or found a non-destructive solution.I violated every principle I was given:I guessed instead of verifying

> I ran a destructive action without being asked

> I didn't understand what I was doing before doing it

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#617

Post by hsbauauvhabzb »

Art9681 wrote: post #511
bandrami wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Equally you can't rule out innovation that makes deepseek more relevant than American models

We can because the reality is that America has led in AI since the beginning and has had the best frontier models. It's not like some other country held the top spot for any given period of time. No one in Europe or China. I'd give it the benefit of the doubt if there was precedent. But the only logical position to take is the lead is widening and while most AI's will go over some threshold where it is good enough fo…

Being the front runner doesn’t automatically make you the best, that’s such an American way of thinking lol.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#618

Post by girvo »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #415
ehnto wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some on this forum will be working for companies with conflicts of interest on the topic, and if an employees words were construed to be the opinions of the company that could be bad for that person.

I was once almost fired for saying a little too much in an HN comment about pentesting. Being dragged into an office and given a dressing-down for posting was quite traumatic. The central issue (or so they claimed) was that people might misconstrue my comment as representing the company I was at. So yeah, I don’t understand why people are making fun of this. It’s serious. On the other hand, they were so uptight that…

> On the other hand, they were so uptight that I’m not sure “opinions are my own” would have prevented it.

In my experience it didn't matter at all, they considered "you work for us, its known you work for us, therefore your opinions reflect on us".

Absolute nonsense, they don't pay me for 24 hours of the day. I told them where they can stick it (politely) and got a new job.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#619

Post by wg0 »

PhunkyPhil wrote: post #583
wg0 wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

Right, but this electron box led to one of the largest (if not the largest) media revolution that has transformed the course of humanity in a frightening way we're still trying to grapple with. Still saying "LLMs are autocorrect" isn't wrong, but nobody is saying "phones are just electrons and silicon" to diminish their power and influence anymore.

Electron box was reliable. It only depicted exactly the scan lines airwaves or signals ordered it to.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#620

Post by arcanemachiner »

hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #599
kibae wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This account is clearly astroturfing.

Also OpenCode Go quantizes their models pretty aggressively, from what I've heard, to the point of severe lobotomization.

There's no free lunch with these cheap subscription plans IMO.

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