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I'm OK being left behind, thanks

shkspr.mobi

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Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#611

Post by eks391 »

thankyoufriend wrote: post #583
tayo42 wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We all change tires with a jack and a spare? It's like a simple skill? I don't get the point your making then?

The "edge cases" make a simple task like this more difficult. What if the nuts are stripped? What if the terrain under/around the car is uneven or not solid ground? What if it's raining or snowing or hailing? What if the driver of the car is irrationally upset and kicks your tire-changing robot over? What if a tire change was requested, but it's clear (to a human) that there is more work that needs to be done?

Every new successful tool doesn't start by trying to meet every need or edge case. They perfect the main case, and then edge cases in priority of likelihood.

Car washes are automated even though they haven't answered the edge cases of how to wash your car when your car is rolled on its side or a terrorist is actively blowing up the equipment. They simply only operate when your car is right side up (and other conditions, like in neutral, wipers off, and a driver who is willing to not exit the vehicle) and when there aren't active bombings on the building. And other "edge" cases.

Just because there is a possibility for something to not work, doesn't make it useless. Automated tire replacements could start with very rigid cases where they are applicable, and expact the scope slowly to allow more cases, like a bent wheel or poor weather.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#612

Post by tavavex »

jghn wrote: post #247
GeoAtreides wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so you either are well connected or you starve, got it guess it's death and destitute for introverts edit: please explain the downvotes, i'm curious why you think i'm wrong if what op says it's true, that today only networking works, then it easily follows that if for some reasons you do not have a network then you don't get hired

Anyone who has been in the industry for several years or more should have people they can reach out to. That’s not being well connected. This is really just a reversion to how things used to work, relying on human connections. People seemed to manage to get jobs 30 years ago just fine

What if you weren't in the industry for several years or more? New grads are completely walled off from the industry because very few employers are willing to give them a shot anymore, even at minimum wage and no other demands from this most desperate worker segment. The few connections I scraped together weren't helpful because barely anyone is hiring juniors anymore. Having one of the resumes on top of someone's pile is only helpful if they ever get to using it. If you're at the lower end of the market, you have to be very exceptional or very lucky. Otherwise, you're done for.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#613

Post by tavavex »

bonoboTP wrote: post #189
bogzz wrote: post #29

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and they might not ever quite get there. But will companies start hiring again? If productivity has gone up, and it seems like it has, then no. So, a decade of hanging by a thread, getting by and doubling down on CS, hoping that the job market sees an uptick? Or try…

There is infinite amount of software to be made. Desires and wants never get satisfied. There will simply be more software, more features, more supported platforms, more bug checks, more tests, more CI/CD, more docs, more websites, more services, more more more. Once we solve something, we have a million new desires that we want to solve. There will be plenty of work in software, up until the time when really all kno…

Do you think all software demands are completely elastic? I don't share your confidence, it feels like it's applying the desired conclusion to the premise. For sure, newer technology prompts new solutions and new tools to use with it, but some industries are much less flexible than others. If your business serves a certain number of clients - for example, companies that work in a specific industry that's growth-constrained - then making software twice as easy to make isn't going to double the number of their clients. That business you work for will either have to look at expanding into a different market, or, more realistically, lay off all the unneeded workers. There's a lot of businesses that work like that. What are they going to grow into?

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#614

Post by archagon »

nightski wrote: post #422
toomuchtodo wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How you objectively measuring success? 93% of Developers Use AI Coding Tools. Productivity Hasn't Moved. - https://philippdubach.com/posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-codi... - March 4th, 2026

They measured 16 developers and called it a "study"? That is amusing. Not to mention it was conducted almost a year ago, the tools have already changed dramatically.

> Not to mention it was conducted almost a year ago, the tools have already changed dramatically.

There is no point at which this argument will not be made. Therefore, it is a useless argument.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#615

Post by tavavex »

bogzz wrote: post #29

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and they might not ever quite get there. But will companies start hiring again? If productivity has gone up, and it seems like it has, then no. So, a decade of hanging by a thread, getting by and doubling down on CS, hoping that the job market sees an uptick? Or try…

> A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. If I had no debt and a little bit saved up I might just content myself with a humble moat like that.

Bad idea. Automotive repair is barely a moat, because you don't need that much training to work those jobs. There's a lot of people who want to do it. And cars are definitely susceptible to recessions - if fewer people are buying cars, if there's a shift to transit, if your locality builds more pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, if businesses that use work vehicles are forced to close, then your demand drops and everyone already in the field is forced to compete with one another.

For moats, look for things that are complex (not everyone can do it), licensed and always needed.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#616

Post by archagon »

xigoi wrote: post #546
gradus_ad wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's so easy to try something like Claude Code. It's not like you need to get up to speed. There is no learning curve*, that's the nature of AI. Just start using it and you'll see why it has attracted so much hype. *I should qualify that "using" CC in the strict sense has no learning curve, but really getting the most out of it may take some time as you see its limitations. But it's not learning tech in the tradi…

It’s only “easy to try” if you’re okay with using proprietary software and having to rely on an evil megacorporation that engages in cyber-warfare.

Not to mention sucking on a monthly subscription tit that will go up in price by an order of magnitude once the market is captured.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#617

Post by fuzzfactor »

jacobsenscott wrote: post #337
augusto-moura wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I get a bit annoyed is companies forcing AI tools, getting usage metrics and actively hunting the engineers that don't use the tool "enough", I've never seen anything like it for a technically optional tool. Even in the past, aside from technical limitaions, you were not required to use enough of a tool. It just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors…

> t just sounds like a giant scheme to burn through tokens and give money to the AI corps, and tech directors are falling for it immediately. This is exactly what's happening. The top 5 or 6 companies in the s&p 500 are running a very sophisticated marketing/pressure campaign to convince every c-suite down stream that they need to force AI on their entire organization or die. It's working great. CEOs don't get fired…

I guess it's possible for the top companies to have spent so much already, that now the best move is to convince the next tier to do the same otherwise those competitiors may pull ahead without such a financial handicap.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#618

Post by fuzzfactor »

forgetfulness wrote: post #260
zephen wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt you, but I'm out of the loop. Who does this?

My uncle leads IT support teams, the org is measuring AI use in writing reports and tickets. The org has very poorly structured and obsolete processes (he's trying to straighten them up as he goes), AI will probably amplify the lack of structure, by making it easier for the work to _look_ as if someone carefully reviewed the issues and followed procedure. A friend is a team lead in an org that's mandating vibecoding…

Well before offices were computerized at all some of the manual processes turned out to be more effective than after full computerization was completely accomplished. Which was sometimes decades later so nobody could tell which workflows it actually applied to, or wouldn't believe it anyway by the 21st century.

It was truly quite rare to have such well-honed manual processes though, the "average" place had a lot of elements that were far from perfect but still benefited after the computerization dust had settled. Then at the opposite end of the spectrum were companies where everything was an absolute shitshow, maybe since the beginning.

That's kind of where Conway's Law comes from, if you benchmark against a manual shitshow that has built up over the years, and replace it with a computerized version, you get a shitshow on steroids. The only other choice would have been to spend the appropriate number of years manually undoing the shitshow before making any really bold moves.

Now AI can really take things to a whole 'nother level, not just on steroids but possibly violating Conway's Law . . . squared.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#619

Post by archagon »

logicchains wrote: post #493
mekael wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had an heavy ai user on my team say that “those who learn how ti use the tools wont get fired, those who dont are gone”. I used it to generate a bunch of cfn and it worked fine from an example and a couple line prompt, doesnt seem that hard to learn to me. Now reviewing the 1k lines it generated and making sure its secure, thats going to take me longer than writing it by hand.

>Now reviewing the 1k lines it generated and making sure its secure, thats going to take me longer than writing it by hand. Then you still need to learn how to use the tools to speed up reviewing the code.

You're not actually doing engineering if you're just vibe-coding, reviewing, and testing all the way down. What the hell is that? Just a weird simulacrum of software development that will break apart in unpredictable ways. Security consultants are going to have very lucrative careers in the coming years.

Re: I'm OK being left behind, thanks

#620

Post by nunez »

gradus_ad wrote: post #193
stiiv wrote: post #33

> If this tech is as amazing as you say it is, I'll be able to pick it up and become productive on a timescale of my choosing not yours. Broadly speaking, I think this is a wise assessment. There are opportunities for productivity gains right now, but it I don't think it's a knockout for anyone using the tech, and I think that onboarding might be challenging for some people in the tech's current state. It is safe to…

But it's so easy to try something like Claude Code. It's not like you need to get up to speed. There is no learning curve*, that's the nature of AI. Just start using it and you'll see why it has attracted so much hype. *I should qualify that "using" CC in the strict sense has no learning curve, but really getting the most out of it may take some time as you see its limitations. But it's not learning tech in the tradi…

There's no learning curve if you don't care about token spend.
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