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Tesla ending Models S and X production

cnbc.com

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#611

Post by Balinares »

piva00 wrote: post #384
haspok wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all good, don't worry, the stock is doing quite well, near its record high. A man jumping around in spandex is all they need.

It's actually bizarre how seemingly nothing impacts $TSLA: profits down 46%, revenue down 3%, cutting successful product lines that used to sell quite a bit, a massively failed product in the Cybertruck, FSD promises still unfulfilled, and on top of all that US$ 2 billion siphoned away to another unrelated company. With all of that, the stock closed upwards on the after market hours. Perhaps only Musk's death could c…

I think it was the FT that observed about a year ago that even as institutional investors were pulling away from US equities, retail investors (redditors, if you will) were filling in the gap quite enthusiastically. (You know, "Buy the dip!! " and brethren.)

I don't know to what extent that's still the case. But someone always ends up with the hot potato no matter what.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#612

Post by lateforwork »

ACCount37 wrote: post #587
rswail wrote: post #334

So he milked Tesla for another $2B to subsidize xAI, has dropped the models to 2 (3 and Y), revenue is down, growth is negative, BYD is eating Tesla for lunch, followed by the other CN and KR vehicle companies. He doesn't have FSD, camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail, the only thing keeping Tesla where it is is the bullshit dispersal field that surrounds Musk.

This LIDAR wank annoys me. If you can train a policy that drives well on cameras, you can get self-driving. If you can't, you're fucked, and no amount of extra sensors will save you. Self-driving isn't a sensor problem. It always was, is, and always will be an AI problem. No amount of LIDAR engineering will ever get you a LIDAR that outputs ground truth steering commands. The best you'll ever get is noisy depth estim…

Even the best AI can't drive without good sensors. Cameras have to guess distance and they fail when there is insufficient contrast, direct sunlight and so on. LiDARs don't have to guess distance.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#613

Post by brk »

WA wrote: post #431
FL33TW00D wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you say camera only navigation won’t work with such finality when humans manage just fine every day! You literally have an existence proof of it working.

Eyes have higher dynamic range and eyes don't freeze below 0°C. You can also put on sunglasses for even more weather-related adjustments.

While I am in the camp that believes camera-only FSD won't succeed, your comment isn't entirely accurate.

CCD and CMOS sensors can easily work in sub-freezing temperatures with various kinds of heating. There are 10's of millions of surveillance cameras installed outdoors in sub-freezing climates that work fine.

Cameras also have moveable IR cut filters, which is analogous to your sunglasses example.

Human eyes do have greater dynamic range in the visible light spectrum, but solid state sensors can commonly interpret light above 1000nm, and of course you can do thermal/IR imagers to provide optical sensing of wavelengths outside of what a human can see.

Sensor technology relative to the human eye isn't what is holding FSD back.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#614

Post by vardump »

torginus wrote: post #521
lnsru wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gamble with Cybertruck failed. It’s common sense, that such a vehicle will fail. The successful cars are made for masses and not for niche buyers. Common sense product could be something smaller than Model 3 for Europe and this car would eat Chinese for lunch. Expensive experiment failed, it’s time for consequences. Does Tesla have resources for another car experiment? Will it stay a car company?.. Or it will be…

It didn't fail imo - it was intended a low-volume product for next-gen Tesla tech - Ethernet based fieldbus, 48V systems, area controllers etc. The philosophy is the same like other high-end cars - you field test your latest experimental tech first in a car with lower sales but high margins - if your fancy stuff has a 1% failure rate, in a 100k production run, that's 1000 vehicles - high but manageable. If you sell m…

I think the real issue was that Cybertruck required way more structural parts (body) than Tesla originally thought. It was originally supposed to have a load bearing exoskeleton.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#615

Post by happymellon »

thephyber wrote: post #582
happymellon wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> like nobody trusts Huawei or Xiaomi phones. Loads of people trusted Huawei, even after all the hyperbole about backdoors for the government. It needed regulators banning Huawei to knock their share of the market and protect the homegrown spyware.

The government bans on Huawei were obviously do to three reasons: network security, economic competition, and politics. Huawei doesn’t only make phones — they also make the cell network infrastructure and they sell it at much lower costs than American companies do. The US put pressure on allied countries to divest from Huawei infrastructure (especially 5G cell networking) to both avoid the security risks and to leave…

> network security

This was the only reason I remember being given.

And was also the one that was contradicted the most as they were sharing all the source code, and several areas of national security reviewed it, including GCHQ, giving it the clear.

Politics and trying to stop an economic competitor from taking business away from overpriced alternatives was the real unspoken reason.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#616

Post by lateforwork »

FL33TW00D wrote: post #388
rswail wrote: post #334

So he milked Tesla for another $2B to subsidize xAI, has dropped the models to 2 (3 and Y), revenue is down, growth is negative, BYD is eating Tesla for lunch, followed by the other CN and KR vehicle companies. He doesn't have FSD, camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail, the only thing keeping Tesla where it is is the bullshit dispersal field that surrounds Musk.

How can you say camera only navigation won’t work with such finality when humans manage just fine every day! You literally have an existence proof of it working.

Humans have cameras (eyes) + AGI. Cars have to compensate with LiDARs and other sensors that humans don't.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#617

Post by direwolf20 »

sgentle wrote: post #202
direwolf20 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there anything China isn't far ahead in? Maybe capitalism was a failure.

Market cap and it's not even close. Turns out financialisation is the classic you-get-what-you-asked-for-not-what-you-wanted of capitalism. We told the optimiser to make number go up, and number has certainly gone up. China's number? Not as up. I think it could have gone differently if we gave our economic system something to optimise other than itself, but then we wouldn't have centibillionaires, so... swings and ro…

Who cares which country has a higher market cap? That's a capitalist concept, of course the capitalist country has more. I'm talking who has the more advanced technology.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#618

Post by top_sigrid »

ACCount37 wrote: post #587
rswail wrote: post #334

So he milked Tesla for another $2B to subsidize xAI, has dropped the models to 2 (3 and Y), revenue is down, growth is negative, BYD is eating Tesla for lunch, followed by the other CN and KR vehicle companies. He doesn't have FSD, camera only navigation without sensor fusion with LIDAR will fail, the only thing keeping Tesla where it is is the bullshit dispersal field that surrounds Musk.

This LIDAR wank annoys me. If you can train a policy that drives well on cameras, you can get self-driving. If you can't, you're fucked, and no amount of extra sensors will save you. Self-driving isn't a sensor problem. It always was, is, and always will be an AI problem. No amount of LIDAR engineering will ever get you a LIDAR that outputs ground truth steering commands. The best you'll ever get is noisy depth estim…

> If you can train a policy that drives well on cameras, you can get self-driving. If you can't, you're fucked, and no amount of extra sensors will save you.

Source: trust me, bro? This statement has no factual basis. Calling the most common approach of all other self-driving developers except Tesla a wank also is no argument but hate only.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#619

Post by rob »

sidcool wrote: post #595

[flagged]

Lol yeah Tesla is doing so great they just got rid of two flagship models.

Government rebates have ended. Sentiment towards EV has shifted negatively in consumer eyes. Manufacturers are sticking to gasoline. Even Jeep just got rid of all their electric stuff.

Maybe they'll be good for self driving robot taxis over in California with "FSD."

Past performance does not indicate future success.

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