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Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

martinalderson.com

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Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#611

Post by mrwrong »

IshKebab wrote: post #592
mrwrong wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this whole analogy is so tired. "LLMs are stupid, but some humans are stupid too, therefore LLMs can be smart as well". let's put aside the obvious bad logic and think for one second about WHY some people are better than others at certain tasks. it is always because they have lots of practice and learned from their experiences. something LLM categorically cannot do

Wow so much wrong in such a short comment. > LLMs are stupid, but some humans are stupid too, therefore LLMs can be smart as well Not what I said. The correct logic is "LLMs are stupid, but that doesn't prove that they MUST ALWAYS be stupid, in the same way that the existence of stupid people doesn't prove that ALL people are stupid". > let's put aside the obvious bad logic Please. > WHY some people are better than o…

> There's literally a step called "training". What do you think that is?

oh wow they use the same word so they must mean the same thing! hard to argue with that logic :)

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#612

Post by bagacrap »

urxvtcd wrote: post #567

If AI is such a competitive advantage, why are AI companies even trying to sell it? Wouldn't it bring more money to use a bleeding edge internal model and just vibe a couple of facebooks at the fraction of the cost and profit like crazy?

It seems the people who think they can just tell computers to write code for them, also are the people who are inclined to tell other people to build apps for them.

We are hurdling towards a brave new world where only 10% of humans have to work, and the other 90% form the bureaucracy on top.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#613

Post by hackernewds »

jonfw wrote: post #609
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

If you have not started working on a new codebase while adopting AI, it may be harder to realize the gains. I switched jobs somewhat recently. At my previous job, where I was on the codebase for years, I knew where the changes should be and what they should look like. So I tried to jump directly to implementation with the AI because I didn't need much help planning and the AI got confused and did an awful job. In a n…

You are discounting his experience with your own, while your example is not remotely relevant to his flask game example.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#614

Post by KallDrexx »

y0eswddl wrote: post #595
KallDrexx wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVERY DX survey that comes out (surveying over 20k developers) says the exact same thing. Staff engineers get the most time savings out of AI tools, and their weekly time savings is 4.4 hours for heavy AI users. That's a little more than 10% productivity, so not anywhere close to 10x. What's more telling about the survey results is they are also consistent in their findings between heavy and light users of AI. Staff…

do you have a link to the latest survey? my google-fu is failing me at the moment

Unfortunately I do not.

Past survey results are hidden in some presentations I've seen, and the latest survey I have full access due to my company paying for it. So I'm not sure it's legal for me to reproduce

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#615

Post by jf22 »

WesleyJohnson wrote: post #575
jf22 wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you've accepted a big drop in quality. Right, but you do it in a 10th of the time.

So you're openly saying you're fine with quantity over quality.... in software engineering? That's fine for a MVP, maybe, but nothing beyond on that IMHO unless they're throw away scripts. "Houston, we have a problem." "Yeah, but we did it in a 10th of the time"

> quantity over quality

Yes? Making quality concessions for more code or features is part of the job.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#616

Post by jf22 »

dlisboa wrote: post #600
TemptedMuse wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the thing, most software engineers are not designing rockets, they are making basic CRUD apps. If there is a minor defect it can be caught and corrected without much issue. Our jobs are a lot less "critical infrastructure" than a lot of software engineers will allow their egos to accept. Sure if you are making some medical surgery robot do it right, but if you are making a website the recommends wine pairings…

I think I'm "most" engineers and I haven't ever worked on something that was "just" a CRUD app. Having a DB behind your web app doesn't make it "just" a CRUD. It's really overestimated how many simple apps exist.

What kind of apps do you work on?

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#617

Post by valbaca »

KallDrexx wrote: post #564
r_lee wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

EVERY DX survey that comes out (surveying over 20k developers) says the exact same thing. Staff engineers get the most time savings out of AI tools, and their weekly time savings is 4.4 hours for heavy AI users. That's a little more than 10% productivity, so not anywhere close to 10x. What's more telling about the survey results is they are also consistent in their findings between heavy and light users of AI. Staff…

> That's a little more than 10% productivity, so not anywhere close to 10x.

No Silver Bullet still alive and well in 2026

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#618

Post by jf22 »

bagacrap wrote: post #602
jf22 wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you've accepted a big drop in quality. Right, but you do it in a 10th of the time.

I mean, just say you view unit testing as nothing more than a checkbox.

I don't know why you'd think that.

200 decent unit tests are better than zero unit tests.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#619

Post by dominotw »

jonfw wrote: post #609
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

If you have not started working on a new codebase while adopting AI, it may be harder to realize the gains. I switched jobs somewhat recently. At my previous job, where I was on the codebase for years, I knew where the changes should be and what they should look like. So I tried to jump directly to implementation with the AI because I didn't need much help planning and the AI got confused and did an awful job. In a n…

gp clearly said they use ai to lookup/explain stuff. they could do the same with local codebase.

not sure what you are trying to say.

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