The Case That A.I. Is Thinking

You’re mixing and missing a few things here.

1. All previous discussion of thinking was in nature to human and animal minds. The reason this is a question in the first place right now is because we ostensibly have a new thing which looks like a human mind but isn’t. That’s the question at hand here.

2. The question in this particular topic is not about technological “progress” or anything like it. It’s about determining whether machines can think, or if they are doing something else.

3. There are absolutely instances in which the previous word doesn’t quite fit the new development. We don’t say that submarines are swimming like a fish or sailing like a boat. To suggest that “no, actually they are just swimming” is pretty inadequate if you’re trying to actually describe the new phenomenon. AIs and thinking seem like an analogous situation to me. They may be moving through the water just like fish or boats, but there is obviously a new phenomenon happening.

Depends who you ask, what their definition of thinking is.

A long time ago I noticed that I sometimes already had a complete thought before my inner monologue turned it into words. A few times I tried skipping the inner monologue because I'd clearly already thought the thought. Turns out the bit of my brain that creates the inner monologue from the thought, can generate a sense of annoyance that the rest of my brain can feel.

Not that it matters, there's evidence that while LLMs output one word at a time, they've got forward-planning going on, having an idea of the end of a sentence before they get there.

Hear, hear!

I have long thought this, but not had as good way to put it as you did.

If you think about geniuses like Einstein and ramanujen, they understood things before they had the mathematical language to express them. LLMs are the opposite; they fail to understand things after untold effort, training data, and training.

So the question is, how intelligent are LLMs when you reduce their training data and training? Since they rapidly devolve into nonsense, the answer must be that they have no internal intelligence

Ever had the experience of helping someone who's chronically doing the wrong thing, to eventually find they had an incorrect assumption, an incorrect reasoning generating deterministic wrong answers? LLMs dont do that; they just lack understanding. They'll hallucinate unrelated things because they dont know what they're talking about - you may have also had this experience with someone :)

> Can AI recursively create new capabilities like thinking does, or just execute tasks like submarines do? That's the question.

Given my experience with LLMs, I think that they could, but that they're handicapped by certain things at the moment. Haven't you ever met someone who was extremely knowledgable and perceptive at certain tasks, but just couldn't keep on target for 5 minutes? If you can act as a buffer around them, to mitigate their weak points, they can be a really valuable collaborator. And sometimes people like that, if given the right external structure (and sometimes medication), turn out to be really capable in their own right.

Unfortunately it's really difficult to give you a sense of this, without either going into way too much detail, or speaking in generalities. The simpler the example, the less impressive it is.

But here's a simple example anyway. I'm developing a language-learning webapp. There's a menu that allows you to switch between one of the several languages you're working on, which originally just had the language name; "Mandarin", "Japanese", "Ancient Greek". I thought an easy thing to make it nicer would be to have the flag associated with the language -- PRC flag for Mandarin, Japanese flag for Japanese, etc. What do do for Ancient Greek? Well, let me see it looks and then maybe I can figure something out.

So I asked Claude what I wanted. As expected, it put the PRC and Japanese flags for the first two languages. I expected it to just put a modern Greek flag, or a question mark, or some other gibberish. But it put an emoji of a building with classical Greek columns (), which is absolutely perfect.

My language learning system is unusual; so without context, Claud assumes I'm making something like what already exists -- Duolingo or Anki or something. So I invested some time creating a document that lays out in detail. Now when I include that file as a context, Claude seems to genuinely understand what I'm trying to accomplish in a way it didn't before; and often comes up with creative new use cases. For example, at some point I was having it try to summarize some marketing copy for the website; in a section on educational institutions, it added a bullet point for how it could be used that I'd never thought of.

The fact that they can't learn things on-line, that they have context rot, that there's still a high amount of variance in their output -- all of these, it seems to me, undermine their ability to do things, similar to the way some people's ADHD undermines their ability to excel. But it seems to me the spark of thinking and of creativity is there.

EDIT: Apparently HN doesn't like the emojis. Here's a link to the classical building emoji: https://www.compart.com/en/unicode/U+1F3DB