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AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

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Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#611

Post by benreesman »

joe_the_user wrote: post #457
lenerdenator wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a failure of the will to do the right thing for both the shareholders and the country. They've been doing the exact right thing for the shareholders: squeezing the living shit out of an asset (x86/64) for decades while cutting anything interesting or competitive to the bone to give shareholders more money. Money spent on something that could really have been competitive is money not sent to the retirement fund…

They've been doing the exact right thing for the shareholders: squeezing the living shit out of an asset (x86/64) for decades while cutting anything interesting or competitive to the bone to give shareholders more money. I would quibble with the exact right thing phrases but otherwise agree. Intel indeed followed a formula which is intended to and often does produce massive return for some time frame. The formula is…

There are orhanized ways to wind down a business unit or even a whole business and convert the salvagable assets into shareholder value, these range from corp dev / M&A activity all the way through bankrupcy and bondholder seniority.

And in the days when fraud or "fraud-adjacent" behavior carried serious costs? When violating the social contract around pensions and severance and stuff had real reputational costs that followed the principles around? People used them when necessary. You sold off the assets sometimes.

But beginning with the LBO "innovation" in the 80s and running a line through Milken and shit all the way to the Vanguard/State Street/Blackrock "quasi-sovereign" level of PE asset capture?

People started arbing it, not by seeing value where others had missed it! By betting that Gordon Gecko had enough fans to make the arb work. "Gutting" a company slowely and painfully is in a bucket I'll call "fraud adjacent": usually not outright illegal (lotta "gray" work, gray edge), clearly not what society wants or intended, and you know it's a scam when you look in the mirror every night. i used to get wasted with these guys at Catch when I lived in NYC: they'll tell you everytging I am and more on five gin and tonics

There's no place for the word "duty" in any version of that argument unless you also use the word "derelict".

Don't excuse weakness at the top.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#612

Post by fc417fc802 »

fellowmartian wrote: post #596
fc417fc802 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 90% of this corn isn't being eaten anyways But it could be. I don't have to consume the canned food in my basement for it to provide food security in the event of a natural disaster. I'm finding exact numbers difficult to come by but rice requires noticeably more water to grow. Dried corn kernels are approximately equivalent to dried rice when it comes to storage and transport. There really isn't any sensible argum…

It’s not being stored. There’s no “strategic corn reserve”. What is not being consumed by people or animals gets turned into biofuel - the worst kind of fuel from thermodynamic perspective and one that would never exist without market distortion.

Which means that the US is continually producing far more potential food than we actually use. That constitutes a form of food security. What it gets used for instead - be that animal feed, chemical feedstock, fertilizer, etc - is largely irrelevant.

Are you certain there's no strategic reserve? If not there probably ought to be. Seems like a rather cheap form of insurance in the bigger picture.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#613

Post by epolanski »

jeroenhd wrote: post #602
epolanski wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how does that make american IT companies with datacenters, etc, more competitive?

In the short term, chips would just be 5-20% more expensive in the US compared to anywhere else. They'd need to raise the tariffs a bit more, though, to make sure there's incentive to increase production to a level that can satisfy demand. In the long term, it would provide the US with an independent source of chips, and eventually allow them to let go of any plants to protect Taiwan from China.

You haven't answered: how do american datacenters stay competitive?

In Europe or Japan I can already build much cheaper, workforce is cheaper, now even hardware is cheaper.

How does data centers in US stay competitive? Why would Google or others build their new AI infrastructure in Ohio rather than elsewhere?

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#614

Post by daneel_w »

zarzavat wrote: post #450
guywithahat wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically my only opposition to US chips is that we’re less liable to protect Taiwan if China invades

It's probably the opposite. I very much doubt that the factory would continue to operate if the US refused to defend Taiwan. The factory gives Taiwan a huge amount of leverage.

Of course it would continue to operate. The Chinese division of Arm went rogue and basically captured the entire operation from within. USA has both the engineering expertise and the incentive to do the same with an entire chip fab, if push came to shove.

https://semianalysis.com/2021/08/27/the-semiconductor-heist-...

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#615

Post by NonHyloMorph »

bloppe wrote: post #546
tetrahedr0n wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it ridiculous to expect an economy, such as the US, to produce things of value? The author of the post you are responding to has a valid point. Consumption alone isn't sustainable.

Nobody's arguing in favor of producing nothing . We're just saying there's something called comparative advantage and it's about maximizing efficiency. The US has no business manufacturing chips for strictly economic reasons. But when you consider national security concerns it looks different

Where is that idea coming from that you will be able to choose? Like there will be 2 versions of the same product on the shelves with one reading made in the usa and 5-20% more expensive? That's silly

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#616

Post by jdietrich »

curseofcasandra wrote: post #414
owebmaster wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan also believes they are (part of) China

Or more accurately, the Taiwanese government also believes that mainland China and Taiwan should be unified (ie. a One-China Interpretation). But that this One-China should be under the rule of the Taiwanese government and not the CCP, which they considered an illegitimate government, up until the 1992 Consensus. After the 1992 Consensus [1], the Taiwanese government still considered the Mainland its territory (again…

The UN has only ever recognised one China - they just switched from recognising the ROC to the PRC in 1971.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembl...

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#617

Post by pydry »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #540
guywithahat wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically my only opposition to US chips is that we’re less liable to protect Taiwan if China invades

I think this is the reality behind the past relative world peace; international dependencies. Russia got away with a lot of shit because most of Europe thrived on their cheap gas and oil. Many countries are in debt with each other or have valuable assets (gold, nukes) stashed with each other.

It wasnt the oil or gas. Europe was perfectly capable of substituting both.

They got away with it because they built up their industrial base while the west let its industrial base wither. It's only starting to dawn on our leaders (3+ years in) now that dropping the ball on stuff like steel, mortar and missile production actually loses wars and that it takes years to undo those mistakes.

The west's Achilles heel was always profit driven capitalism + a superiority complex. All China had to do was to systematically undercut the west on industrial inputs while its superiority complex held firm and the west took care of hollowing out its own economic and military potential.

Even today when the US produces ~50/year patriots for the entire west and Ukraine needs ~400-500/year to stay afloat some people are still telling fairy tales about how a lack of "will" was the only thing standing between putin and domination. The superiority complex hasnt even died yet.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#618

Post by kashunstva »

fn-mote wrote: post #601
zuminator wrote: post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think realistically the US is unfortunately never going to protect Taiwan. There's no way I see it getting into an unwinnable hot war with China over territory so close to the mainland. If China sent troops to secure the Taiwanese fabs, how could the US possibly dislodge them without destroying the thing they want to protect? The focus on the CHIPS Act by both recent administrations seems an admission that they don…

> how could the US possibly dislodge them without destroying the thing they want to protect? I would instead assert that it is very likely that the US would destroy the fabs rather than allow China to gain control of them through an act of aggression. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction has been around a long time. The international players are familiar with it.

> The international players are familiar with it.

The current U.S. leadership is so chaotic and seemingly uninvolved in strategy that predictions about whether/how MAD would play out are difficult to make.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#619

Post by blitzar »

fishsticks89 wrote: post #348
avhception wrote: post #342

If that is the cost of keeping the value within the western economies, we should pay. Plain and simple. I'd even argue it's cheap.

If something happens to Taiwan, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically. If AI keeps growing like it does, it might even trigger a conflict.

If something happens to the US, we won't regret being able to produce these chips domestically.

For the rest of the world, Taiwan with a "China Risk" looks like a safer bet than the USA.

Re: AMD CEO sees chips from TSMC's US plant costing 5%-20% more

#620

Post by fellowmartian »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #612
fellowmartian wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not being stored. There’s no “strategic corn reserve”. What is not being consumed by people or animals gets turned into biofuel - the worst kind of fuel from thermodynamic perspective and one that would never exist without market distortion.

Which means that the US is continually producing far more potential food than we actually use. That constitutes a form of food security. What it gets used for instead - be that animal feed, chemical feedstock, fertilizer, etc - is largely irrelevant. Are you certain there's no strategic reserve? If not there probably ought to be. Seems like a rather cheap form of insurance in the bigger picture.

The argument you’re making works just as well for any other crop. Productive land is the asset and the security, not the corn itself. In fact, growing the damn corn everywhere degrades the soil. We might as well grow wheat, rice, legumes, etc. Besides path-dependence there’s little reason for corn dominance.
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