Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd like to second the point made to you in this thread that went without reply: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43702895 It's true that we use tools with uncertainty all the time, in many domains. But crucially that uncertainty is carefully modeled and accounted for. For example, robots use sensors to make sense of the world around them. These sensors are not 100% accurate, and therefore if the robots rely on t…
>went without reply Yeah, I was getting a little self-conscious about replying to everyone and repeating myself a lot. It felt like too much noise. But my first objection here is to repeat myself- none of my examples are sensitive to this problem. I don't need to understand what conditions cause the calculator/IDE/medical test/LLM to fail in order to benefit from a 95% success rate. If I write a piece of code, I try…
That's not true. You absolutely have to understand those conditions because when you try to use those things outside of their operating ranges, they fail at a higher than the nominal rate.
> I'm still going to run the unit test suite even if it has low coverage, and even if I have no idea what the tests actually measure. My confidence in my changes will go up if the tests pass.
Right, your confidence goes up because you know that if the test passes, that means the test passed. But if the test suite can probabilistically pass even though some or all of the tests actually fail, then you will have to fall back to the notions of systematic risk management in my last post.
> I can refactor a piece of code and then send ChatGPT the before and after and ask "Do these do the same thing". I'm already highly confident that they do, but a yes from the AI means I can be more confident. If I get a no, I can read its explanation and agree or disagree. I'm sure it can get this wrong (though it hasn't after n~=100)
This n is very very small for you to be confident the behavior is as consistent as you expect. In fact, it gets this wrong all the time. I use AI in a class environment so I see n=100 on a single day. When you get to n~1k+ you see all of these problems where it says things are one way but really thing are another.
> mostly accurate double-check
And that's the problem right there. You can say "mostly accurate" but you really have no basis to assert this, past your own experience. And even if it's true, we still need to understand how wrong it can be, because mostly accurate with a wild variance is still highly problematic.
> But I can and do use them for great benefit every day, and I have no idea why I should prefer to throw away the useful thing I have because it's imperfect.
Sure, they can be beneficial. And yes, we shouldn't throw them out. But that wasn't my original point, I wasn't suggesting that. What I had said was that they cannot be relied on, and you seem to agree with me in that.