611–620 of 851 posts
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To be fair to thunderbird120, the author of this piece made edits at some point. See https://archive.is/K4n9E . No discussion of the recent TPU releases, or TPUs for all, for that matter.
You are correct. I misjudged.I thought I had read the article early, it must have been just after the edits.
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Haven't Nvidia published roughly as many chip designs in the same period?
The issue isn't number of designs but architectural stability. NVIDIA's chips have been general purpose for a long time. They get faster and more powerful but CUDA has always been able to run any kind of neural network. TPUs used to be over-specialised to specific NN types and couldn't handle even quite small evolutions in algorithm design whereas NVIDIA cards could. Google has used a lot of GPU hardware too, as a co…
While Nv does have an unlimited money printer at the moment, the fact that at least some potential future competition exists does represent a threat to that.
As an Ex-OpenAI employee I agree with this. Most of the top ML talent at OpenAI already have left to either do their own thing or join other startups. A few are still there but I doubt if they'll be around in a year. The main successful product from OpenAI is the ChatGPT app, but there's a limit on how much you can charge people for subscription fees. I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free an…
As an Ex-OpenAI employee I agree with this. Most of the top ML talent at OpenAI already have left to either do their own thing or join other startups. A few are still there but I doubt if they'll be around in a year. The main successful product from OpenAI is the ChatGPT app, but there's a limit on how much you can charge people for subscription fees. I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free an…
> there's a limit on how much you can charge people for subscription fees. I think soon people expect this service to be provided for free and ads would become the main option to make money out of chatbots. So... I don't think this is certain. A surprising number of people pay for the ChatGPT app and/or competitors. It's be a >$10bn business already. Could maybe be a >$100bn business long term. Meanwhile... making mo…
I don't understand why people believe this: by settling on "unstructured chat" as the API, it means the switching costs are essentially zero. The models may give different results, but as far a plugging a different one in to your app, it's frictionless. I can switch everything to DeepSeek this afternoon.
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> Modern BERT with the extended context has solved natural language web search. I mean it as no exaggeration that _everything_ google does for search is now obsolete. The web UI for people using search may be obsolete, but search is hot, all AIs need it, both web and local. It's because models don't have recent information in them and are unable to reliably quote from memory.
The point is that the secret sauce in Google's search was better retrieval, and the assertion above is that the advantage there is gone. While crawling the web isn't a piece of cake, it's a much smaller moat than retrieval quality was.
Crawling the web has a huge moat because a huge number of sites have blocked 'abusive' crawlers except Google and possibly Bing.
For example just try to crawl sites like Reddit and see how long before you're blocked and get a "please pay us for our data" message.
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> unlike openai, google is already cashflow positive and doesnt need to raise any external funds this can quickly change in several quarters, if users decide to leave google search, then all google org/infra complexity will play very badly against them
I really don't think this is a likely outcome in the 'several quarters' timeframe. The world just spent 2.5 decades going onto Google. There are so many small business owners out there who hate technology... so many old people who took years just to learn how to Google... so many ingrained behaviors of just Googling things... outside of the vocal tech crowd I think it's exceedingly unlikely that users stop using Goog…
This article doesn't mention TPUs anywhere. I don't think it's obvious for people outside of google's ecosystem just how extraordinarily good the JAX + TPU ecosystem is. Google several structural advantages over other major players, but the largest one is that they roll their own compute solution which is actually very mature and competitive. TPUs are extremely good at both training and inference[1] especially at sca…
TPUs aren't necessarily a pro. They go back 15 years and don't seem to have yielded any kind of durable advantage. Developing them is expensive but their architecture was often over-fit to yesterday's algorithms which is why they've been through so many redesigns. Their competitors have routinely moved much faster using CUDA. Once the space settles down, the balance might tip towards specialized accelerators but NVID…
Also worth noting that its Ads division is the largest, heaviest user of TPU. Thanks to it, it can flex running a bunch of different expensive models that you cannot realistically afford with GPU. The revenue delta from this is more than enough to pay off the entire investment history for TPU.
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Something I've noticed is that Gemini through gemini.google.com or through the mobile apps is vastly inferior to Gemini through aistudio.google.com. Much worse handling of long contexts amongst other things. Very odd that a product that is free (AI Studio use is free), is much worse than the product I am paying 20 quid a month for. I find this to be especially true for the newer models like "gemini-2.5-pro-preview-03…
Why does Google even have these two different interfaces?
It is sort of funny to me how the sentiment about whoever seems to be leading in ML changes so frequently (in particular here on HN.) A couple months ago it felt like people were sure that Google completely fucked it up for themselves (especially due to the fact that they invented the transformer but didn't productize it themselves at first.) For a short while, Claude was the best thing since sliced cheese, then Deep…
There is no clear winner. The pace is fast.