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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#611

Post by thereddaikon »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

China doesn't want Taiwan for TSMC. They want Taiwan because they see them as a rebellious province. In their mind, the Chinese civil war never ended and that island is the last bastion of the Kuomintang. One way I've heard it described in a way that is easier for Americans to understand is; Imagine at the end of the American Civil War, a confederate army retreated to an island like Cuba or Hawaii, they took it over and have been calling themselves the real America ever since.

I'm not saying China is right in wanting to invade Taiwan. But that's closer to their real motivations than anything having to do with economics or technology. And its important to understand your potential adversaries motivations because that will inform their decisions and tactics.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#612

Post by nemo44x »

Panoramix wrote: post #385
darthrupert wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a fourth option is rising its head: USA is becoming so weak geopolitically that being allied with them is becoming an incredibly bad position to be in. Therefore I assume that it's possible that Taiwan will simply choose to integrate with mainland China. This would be a huge change in their sentiments for sure, but these things may happen when large wheels are turning.

This is the most likely. With allies like the US, the old enemies don't look so bad anymore.

[flagged]

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#613

Post by lurk2 »

re-thc wrote: post #575
abirch wrote: post #569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unsure of how many internet services Taiwan relies on outside of Taiwan? If the servers are on the island, my understanding is that they'll be fine. Unfortunately they won't be able to access Hacker News, but they should be able to bank, buy groceries, etc.

> If the servers are on the island, my understanding is that they'll be fine. Taiwan doesn't have a huge data center capacity. A lot of services are in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, etc... Of the big clouds e.g. AWS is only opening a data center later this year. It's also not so simple. Even local servers / services might have all sorts of "needs" to phone "home" elsewhere e.g. for analytics. A lot of software might n…

Why would this have any strategic impact on Taiwan's capacity to defend itself?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#614

Post by lurk2 »

ekianjo wrote: post #456
drodgers wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

> Always works

Not even remotely true.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#615

Post by jopsen »

bee_rider wrote: post #309
jopsen wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't risk nuclear war by shooting a few conventional missiles and establishing a blockade. (A) China would suffer intensely under a blockade. (B) A few missiles could ensure chip facilities are surrendered intact. (C) Even a short conflict where a few missiles hits boats invading Taiwan would ensure the rest of the world never trades with China. Point being: The US doesn't have to win, don't have to fight with e…

I think establishing a blockade is generally considered an act of war. Possibly a war crime if the intent is to starve civilians? (Not sure, this is way outside my wheelhouse). I’d expect it to be about as escalatory as using US ships to attack the mainland, more or less.

US action following a Taiwan invasion could be shoot a few missiles at the invasion fleet.

Declare all coastal areas around China a conflict zone.

Declare anyone trading with China can't trade with the US. If backed by allies, China could perhaps be boxed in.

But, hey, who knows. It's entirely unclear what is possible.

And much depends on whether Taiwan falls in 3 days, or stays in the fight for 3 years.

Or so one would assume.. current administration is proving that they'll abandon freedom at minimal cost.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#616

Post by nemo44x »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #297
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

> they only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate Taipei needs nukes. There simply isn’t another guarantor of sovereign security anymore.

They probably already have them. There’s no advantage to announcing that. Similar to Israel.

Regardless there’s very probably multiple USA nuclear subs surrounding the place.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#617

Post by echoangle »

diamondfist25 wrote: post #572
echoangle wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you talking about a different Taiwan? In what world is the economy of Taiwan stagnating for decades? Look at the growth in GDP and GDP per capita here and tell me that’s stagnation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Taiwan

Taiwanese here Taiwan Econ has stagnated for decades. Hence the top low birth rate in the world Avg salary of tw is 1.5k usd. The same as 20-30 yrs ago

Just not true.

Average monthly wage:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/319845/taiwan-average-mo...

2000 - 42k NTD

2023 - 58k NTD

Converted to USD:

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo...

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/histo...

2000 - 1270 USD

2023 - 1870 USD

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#618

Post by jopsen »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #549
jopsen wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are parts manufactured around the world (including the US), and the lithography machines are NOT the only step with only one vendor. US/EU economies are too intertwined to be decoupled. Just distancing the US economy from China is hard.

Sure, but the US wants to put a minimum 25% tax on imports from Europe, that'll affect these machines as well.

Doubly so if parts imported from the US are also subject to EU tariffs.

But I'm not sure how much this will affect the costs of fabs?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#619

Post by VWWHFSfQ »

billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially.

This will happen after USA extricates all the meaningful tech and re-homes the institutions and workforce required to maintain that tech to the USA mainland. Still probably a decade or two away, but likely.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#620

Post by ozmodiar »

chmod775 wrote: post #487
bloomingkales wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never underestimate the power of saving face. The Taiwan invasion had a dry run with how they handled Hong Kong. This is going to happen and my guess is it will be on Trump’s way out. That way it all gets done during the 2028 election season, and all the next President can do is pout. It’s a win-win for Trump because he keeps China at bay for three years, which is good enough for him.

How are Taiwan and Hong Kong at all comparable? Hong Kong never had their own military, was never an independent nation, and was officially handed over from Britain to China in 1997. There was no armed invasion of Hong Kong - Chinese military was already garrisoned there for 25 years.

There are, or were, talks in Taiwan and China about the possibility of a "one party two systems" style unification similar to Hong Kong. It was pretty fringe but growing in popularity until China cracked down on Hong Kong. I don't know if it's much of a thing anymore, but I do know a couple of old Taiwanese that still believe in it.
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