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GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

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611–620 of 692 posts

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#611

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>the next EV gen is going to have massive QOL features the current one doesn’t Like what?

Fast recharge and high capacity long life batteries. Reliably getting 300-400 mile range (even in cold), getting 250 miles range in 10-15 minutes of fast charging, and seeing batteries comfortably make it to 150k miles with small degradation. Unfortunately people seems to really care about edge cases (What if I have to unexpectedly drive 400 miles on a frozen January evening?), so until EVs can easily cover those bas…

> Unfortunately people seems to really care about edge cases (What if I have to unexpectedly drive 400 miles on a frozen January evening?)

There are plenty of people who live in places where it's frozen every evening for getting on for half of every year.

"Unexpected long trips" aren't exactly an edge case in our household either, for a bunch of reasons.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have to install the GPUs in each car, then you also have a hardware problem.

Tesla has been mass producing bespoke AI hardware for four generation. It's not a hardware problem for Tesla. They are a trillion dollar vertically integrated manufacturing powerhouse.

Not an insurmountable problem for sure. If Level 4 self driving requires more compute in the car, someone has to physically put more compute in the car, which may require redesigning something to do retrofits, etc. A "FSD" car today may not actually have Full Level 4 Self Driving when Tesla finally rolls it out.

Thus it's a hardware problem.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In particular, grid decarbonisation means that distance to break even moves after the car is manufactured. If you live somewhere that mostly burns coal to make electricity, your break even is determined based on the higher efficiency of electric motors and of the (energy efficient but filthy) big stack coal generators compared to the relatively clean but inefficient gasoline ICE. But if they start building wind turbi…

> If you live somewhere that mostly burns coal to make electricity, Which is almost everywhere in the world. Fossil fuels make up around 80% of energy production. > But if they start building wind turbines and solar farms, because those are just cheaper and easier - If they were "just cheaper and easier" they wouldn't need huge clean energy investments and subsidies. I love solar, but don't let anyone sell you on the…

> Which is almost everywhere in the world

Yeah, no. If this was 1984 you'd be right on the money. In 2024 "We mostly burn coal to make electricity" either means you're subsidising coal or you have no infrastructure investment to move to a better generation.

> Fossil fuels make up around 80% of energy production.

Where are you still seeing 80%? Last I saw was closer to 60%. A lot of that isn't coal, and the gasoline is not electricity production†. Gasoline is what we're replacing in the discussion, so "Yeah, but what about gasoline?" is a total misfire. Which mostly leaves methane. And that's a very different comparison to coal. There are indeed new methane electricity plants in lots of places.

A methane power plant might emit half or even a third of the CO2 of the equivalent coal plant. It's still a fossil fuel, but in terms of the ratio we're talking about for break-even on an EV, that's a huge difference.

> If they were "just cheaper and easier" they wouldn't need huge clean energy investments and subsidies.

You're seeing huge investments because they're expensive and make money, that's what an investment is. They're not investing in coal plants because that's a money loser. Yes, it's often subsidised, in my country the renewable energy schemes are subsidised via "Contracts for Difference" which have the effect of insuring the price paid for energy, leaving the problem of delivering the energy very much in the hands of the bidders, the government is only the hook for the agreed price of energy when it's delivered, this has the effect of making investment less risky - if you can make 1000GWh of energy over the lifetime of the project and the subsidy says you're definitely getting £50 per MWh, that's £50M, without CfD you can't be sure if you get paid £80 per MWh (we're £30M richer) or £20 per MWh (we're bankrupt) until the power auctions years after you've constructed the plant.

† Yes there are a handful of power plants running on this fuel, but they're insignificant at a global scale.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wildly misleading comment. Like none of this is true. Cruise started as a retrofit kit for audis similar to comma.ai then they pivoted to l4.

Here it is, the original Cruise RP-1 video.[1] There's the car, driving down the Great Highway in the Sunset district of San Francisco. Perfectly straight, no cross streets, great visibility. [1] https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2016/03/11/70647585...

Nobody ever promised full autonomous with this kit to the best of my knowledge so your claim of "fake it till you make it" is a mischaracterization. It calls it "highway autopilot" in the video, shows highway, what is the problem?

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which industry are you referring to?

Take a wild guess.

Well GM is in the automobile industry, so maybe the automobile industry?

I’m trying to understand how this would be them determining autonomous driving is not viable, which appears to be your premise, rather than them and others just not having a path to compete.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#616

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> We all know its probably best in most cases to keep any vehicle, even one that is inefficient, on the road for its useful life. I didn’t know this until this thread. And I feel like I’ve heard people say things like they are going to improve the environment by ditching their current car for an EV, not because they’re planning on getting rid of their car anyways.

Well sadly, this thread has misinformed you. Here's Top Gear explaining it, as my attempt to convey the same information seems to have bounced off most people replying: https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/mythbusting-world-... > But what if your existing petrol or diesel car is perfectly satisfactory? Obviously if you cause one less vehicle – of any kind – to be manufactured, you’re saving CO2 in the short term…

Sadly, a single paragraph is not a good defense.

I agree that there are shades of gray though. My counterpoint is that I am not so sure the non-commercial vehicle market is that efficient that when you sell a vehicle that it is going to the best candidate best on the miles driven. Your vehicle is still in the fleet and being used. I think the simpler argument is that for any modern vehicle, there is not a significant enough gain and you are better holding on to the vehicle until it reaches your preferred EOL.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#617
post #580
post #326

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There’s a chicken and egg issue with this in that to become proven the AV needs to drive somewhere for a while.

> to become proven the AV needs to drive somewhere for a while. There's a straightforward solution to this that doesn't compromise public safety: Employ paid training drivers who monitor the AV while it is collecting training data in environments where it does not yet meet the safety bar. These drivers are paid to be observant and intervene to avoid accidents. Furthermore, in their interventions, these training drive…

Uber did exactly that and got excoriated when the paid driver was on her phone and the car killed someone on the freeway. I think many people raising are concern trolling this because they either don’t want private cars in favor of public transportation or because they are luddites towards automation of driving jobs.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s wild to me anyone would think turning on barrels is an edge case.

This i what is so tricky with Self Driving. People "feel" it is almost there because most of their rides are mostly ok. However to make a system truly driverless you need to master the long tails of difficult events and FSD is nowhere even close to do that. Going from 99.9% to 99.99999% is what makes a system truly driverless and where most of the work is. Waymo is way way ahead of FSD for this.

I know essentially nothing about machine learning, nor about what approaches to ML that Tesla or Waymo are using. Is there a Metcalfe-type effect possible here? Where the better FSD becomes, the more people use it, finding more edge-cases, so the driving get better, so more people start to use it. With the end result that the learning starts to get better/faster with time, in a positive-feedback like mechanism?

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think proper V2H/V2G (vehicle to home/grid) is a big one that is very rare at the moment but is probably making a lot of people who could buy an EV at the moment (i.e. have a garage/driveway in a city) hold off until it's more common, because it makes the economics a lot more attractive. (In general, because of cratering manufacturing costs, improving tech, and a still low trust for battery health, being an EV earl…

I'm not super convinced about the V2H stuff, tbh. I only need backup power at home to keep the heat on when I'm not there. If I'm not there almost certainly my car isn't either. When I am there I can light a candle and run the wood stove to keep the pipes from freezing. So a stationary battery bank for my solar system makes a lot more sense than trying to use my car for that purpose.

Natural disasters that cut power (like hurricanes)?

https://electrek.co/2022/11/08/electric-vehicles-provide-bac...

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes of course accountability clearly isn't a thing at play here, Musk said self driving cars were coming in two years back when I was still studying, that was ~10 years ago... We're still not even close to anything remotely capable of being autonomous, even on sunny straight californian roads... Bring these to switzerland snowy mountain passes or serbian dirt roads lmao > a bleeding edge industry. The only thing…

Waymo has fully autonomous commercial operations in 5 cities now. Have you been in one? They are amazing. Most taxi/rideshare rides occur in cities, not the snowy mountains of Switzerland. Maybe they never make it to those snowy mountains. Who cares?

Five cities in CA/AZ/TX, aka 90 degrees angles grid, 0 inclines, sunshine 300+ days a year, no snow, no rain, perfect visibility, &c. Musk was 100% talking about self driving cars for the average joe, not robotaxis in gentrified city centers. I also have a fully autonomous vehicles, my vacuum cleaner navigates my living room flawlessly...

And again that's exactly what waymo's ceo said, it won't work everywhere / in all conditions, and as it turns out: outside of deserts and the west coasts these conditions are far from edge cases, they're the norm in most of the world

Without even talking about edge cases like mountains, put one of these in Paris or Rome and I give it 15 minutes before it gets stuck/crashes, people underestimate how hard the last 20% will be. 100 000 cars go through that place every single day: https://youtu.be/JgWhagB4d_g?t=79

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