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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

611–620 of 632 posts

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

I feel like people overshoot. I live on 15 acres, mostly woods. I can only just barely see my neighbor’s houses through the woods in the winter. I’d like more land still - I grew up on 60 acres - but I still basically have complete privacy.

When I was looking in NJ, 5-10 acres was the typical lot size. That was enough to not see neighbors, but I was still too close to other people. There was always noise in the distance. There was a serious threat of adjacent lots being turned into apartments or other housing developments, or warehouses, or some kind of industrial facility like a quarry. Any of that would be enough to make me want to move.

I can get 200+ acres in Maine for the same price as 5 acres in NJ, and have much higher confidence that nothing is going to be built adjacent to me. Especially if I get land abutting conservation land.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

9X brighter

Per Wikipedia, solar irradiance at 1 the top of the atmosphere is about 1,360 W/m^2, at at the surface on a clear day with the sun at its zenith is 1,050 W/m^2.

Solar flux is half gone by the time it gets to the ground (reflection, cloud absorption)

Witness the clause 'at its zenith'. That means, too much atmosphere is in the way the rest of the day to matter.

In space, the sun is always at its zenith, if you look the right direction. Further, you have the opportunity to convert all of it, rather than the 50% that reaches the ground.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#613

OP suggests that land costs will soon dominate the equation. So no mention of orbital solar plants? Yes, somebody years ago published a study that said, Uneconomical! because lift costs, panel cost, transmission inefficiencies. All of those are now drastically changed, by orders of magnitude. It is not a matter of IF orbital solar is economical, but WHEN.

The middle of a large desert is effectively free land, and perfect for solar. I don't see how space could ever be more economical in any respect. If beaming energy gets cheaper than transmission lines, we can beam it point-to-point on the earth too.

Read more. Atmosphere and night tank ground-based solar by maybe 80% of what's possible. And, sand is a terrible thing to operate any efficient optics around. No, the desert is a fairly bad choice. Sure, it's kinda bright there, part of the day. That's about the only thing on the plus side.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#614
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but 1.1 gigawatts of mainstream solar panels is 0.14 billion usd. $130 per kilowatt of capacity. even at the dismal 10% solar capacity factor achieved in very northerly countries like germany, the reactor is twice the price per average watt, and it needs to be installed far from the point of use—you can't buy a 440-watt nuclear reactor, so you need transmission, distribution, and transformers, all of which incur ener…

> but 1.1 gigawatts of mainstream solar panels is 0.14 billion usd A solar farm is more than just solar panels. This 3.5GW solar farm cost 2.13B USD, so by your estimates the panels make up just 1/5 of the cost of the farm. I'd expect the load factor of the nuclear power station to offset the solar farm's nameplate capacity advantage, and lead to steadier prices/fewer storage requirements etc etc. https://www.pv-maga…

i agree that the difference in capacity factor is very important, and i should have made that clearer in my comment. nuclear is typically around 85%, solar typically around 20%. solar farms in the california desert are 29%, so this desert plant might have a similarly high capacity factor, but last time i checked, the prc average was more like 10%, and i don't understand why. possibly factors like transmission congestion are to blame and will be at play here too

especially if it's cheaper to put up more solar panels somewhere more overcast than to build hvdc transmission lines from urumqi to shanghai

it turns out that, if you use solar panels the same way you'd use nuclear reactors, by centralizing them hundreds or thousands of kilometers away from where the energy is used (as in this case), or by concreting over prime beachfront property (which nuclear power plants need) to build giant solar farms on, they can cost almost as much as nuclear reactors do, or even more

this is analogous to how factories first used electric motors: they installed a giant electric motor in the factory's powerhouse to drive the line shafts, replacing the steam-engine the powerhouse was built for. consequently electrification famously didn't increase factory productivity for decades

when i said that nuclear power plants 'need to be installed far from the point of use', i didn't mean that they couldn't be tens of kilometers, or even single-digit kilometers, from the point of use. i meant that they can't be single-digit meters from the point of use. solar panels can, and that dramatically drops costs

i appreciate the correction about the ap1000! naval nuclear reactors have been able to rapidly ramp up and down since forever, so it's good to see that capability making it into commercial nuclear power

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#615
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it right there Germany can’t satisfy demand with renewables and decided to cut itself of from coal and nuclear, brilliant right!? Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Your argument to stop using LNG doesn’t work if you have many parts of industry build with gas infrastructure which can’t be replaced just like that.

Germany has been the biggest exporter of electricity in the world for 8 of the last 10 years[0]. It consistently generates more than it consumes. It's been this way since around 2004. German wholesale electricity prices are relatively low by European standards - so far this year about 8th cheapest - about 13% cheaper than of France, for example[1]. This reflects the blended cost of production. Household prices are hi…

Nobody cares. bryanlarsen has it correct, you need to satisfy demand.

Germany is exporting because it produces useless renewable power. It is useless because it does not satisfy the demand. The demand is on dark, cold days, it is for processes that are useless if they are interrupted.

Have you honestly tried buying steel for a project? I have, the vast majority of European suppliers are now borderline useless. Delivering early is as bad as delivering late, bad enough that if the product was free I'd think twice, and they do both.

And no, storage of energy is not cost-competitive. Not even with nuclear. Not even within two orders of magnitude at the scale required, which is not kWh, not MWh, not even GWh, but tens of TWh. The best I've seen gives you time to cold start a gas plant, and that's it. That is what the battery sector gives as achievement. It's not enough and it's not close.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#616
post #585
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link you're using is from 2022, which is an outlier in terms of energy production. The issue is that Germany exports "waste" electricity. It almost always exports cheap power, and imports at high rates. In negative price events, you will almost always see Germany in the exporter list. For instance, today, France imported from Germany between 10:30 and 15:45, when market prices reached bottom, and exported to Germ…

The link provides 2022 imports and exports at the top of the page but if you scroll down includes balances going back to 1995. 2022 is not an outlier in this regard - on an aggregate basis Germany has been the biggest net exporter of electricity in the world over the last 20 years. Nothing "waste" about it, the imports and exports in the link are priced in USD, so if your thesis is true, then it would mean even bigge…

> 2022 is not an outlier in this regard

Yeah, 2022 was absolutely not an outlier in electricity production in Europe...

> the imports and exports in the link are priced in USD, so if your thesis is true, then it would mean even bigger _volumes_ of electric exports.

That is, indeed, true. Germany's export prices are noticeably lower than Germany's import prices for electricity [1].

That means Germany exports _a lot_ of cheap electricity when electricity is abundant, and requires some expensive electricity when it is not. From the pov of reliability of supply, it's not great. From the PoV of market participants, however, that's pretty good, of course.

[1]: average export/import price, fig. 4 - https://www.ffe.de/en/publications/electricity-imports-to-ge...

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

400W solar panels cost $200-250. So 2400W will cost me roughly $1800. There are discounts if you can buy in bulk, but I don't have room for more than 6-8 panels at most. Like all things, the raw material cost is trivial. There are the tariffs you mention (I just skimmed your link, and don't speak German), but there's also economy of scale, packaging, logistics, etc. I'm sure I could get 400W panels for as little as $…

Just wanted to clarify, are all these panels equal in size? Is there a "standard" solar panel format? It would be easy to otherwise get a much cheaper panel providing the same output if it was just a bit larger. It might be fine for ground installations but in your case space is at a premium

there used to be a standard size, but as i understand it, the price pressure the article is about has induced some makers to introduce larger-sized panels. somewhat surprisingly, lower-efficiency panels (such as polycrystalline types) don't cost much less per square meter, and so they seem to be gradually disappearing from the market

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by dispatch-able you mean something that can cheaply fill the gaps when wind/solar is not producing, then nuclear is not dispatch-able. For that purpose, we really only have fossil plants (and hydro in a few areas) But if you compare the predictability of nuclear to that of wind/solar, nuclear is a lot easier to plan, and also requires way less (if any) contribution from other sources. Also, I would argue that the…

> and also requires way less (if any) contribution from other sources. This part is wrong. Electricity demand is varies about 50% over the course of the day and about 50% over the course of a year, so a 100% nuclear grid would only be operating at ~50% capacity which would double the costs. On a local scale, renewables aren't predictable, but over large areas (e.g. US/EU), almost all of the variability cancels out (e…

>> and also requires way less (if any) contribution from other sources.

> This part is wrong.

France used to provide 75% of their electricity demand from Nuclear. Add their hydro power, and it was 85-90%. I'm not aware of any other country reaching similar figures using wind/solar, ever.

Some countries (like Denmark) have surpassed 50% from wind/solar, but at least in the case of Denmark, that relies heavily on supplementing it with hydropower from Norway/Sweden.

> On a local scale, renewables aren't predictable, but over large areas ....

The continent wide grid capacity needed for this is not only expensive, it's also fragile. If you add the extra grid costs to wind and solar, it's no longer very cheap.

Nuclear also benefits from a grid, but rely a lot less on it than wind/solar does. Even if you cut off the grid (due to an EU breakup, let's say), countries with nuclear power would be fine.

> I find it somewhat hard to believe that nuclear plants could easily be made dramatically cheaper

Almost anything of that sort CAN be made a lot cheaper, as long as a free market is allowed to operate and economies of scale are achieved. On top of that, technological progress makes it possible to get more from less over time (including safety).

As for China and India, well China IS building a lot more Nuclear than anyone else (probably everyone else combined). Cost estimations for them are uncertain, but seem cheaper than Korea. (Korean prices are assumed to be ~$40/MWh).

I believe that there is a lot left on the table in terms of efficiencies to be gained if competition and innovation across countries were encouraged, but even if you chose NOT to believe that, well at least nuclear has shown that it can deliver up to 75%.

Wind + solar has not shown anything similar, at least not yet.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#619
post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pure PV farms have minimal operational costs, nuclear has huge ongoing costs. For a more realistic comparison the operating costs of nuclear offset the cost of batteries for solar. So capital costs vs capital costs on a per Wh basis isn’t in favor of Solar it favors nuclear which has less flexibility. IE: 24 GWh per day of battery backed solar can dump half that power over 2 hours @ 6GW. 24GWh of nuclear IE a 1GWh re…

> Pure PV farms have minimal operational costs, nuclear has huge ongoing costs. https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-el... page 59 table 3.13a puts O&M for nuclear in the USA at about 12 USD/MWh plus just over 9 USD/MWh for fuel, and table 3.14 puts O&M for utility scale solar at around 6 USD/MWh or so. As for batteries, I think a few hundred USD/kWh is a reasonable guesstimate of cost (raw LiFeP…

i agree that retric's reasoning about capital utilization efficiency applies to both nuclear and solar generation; in fact, it might be even more applicable to solar generation, because although the variable costs (cost of sales, you might say—proportional to power usage) for nuclear energy are low, they're virtually zero for pv. what i was saying about dispatchability is that nuclear plants typically can't be turned off; they keep generating power even when grid prices go negative, so the nuclear plant operator is literally paying someone with a giant resistor bank to burn up the energy the reactors are generating. (nowadays, hopefully they're paying someone with a battery bank to charge their batteries instead, but the future is not yet widely distributed.) your earlier comment about the ap1000 having significant dispatchability is welcome news, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000 says there are six of them already in operation

there are particularly perverse grid incentives in some places which result in pv farms continuing to operate when grid prices go negative, too, but that's just a fake market; nothing about the generation technology requires that. if you close a contactor to short out your solar panel, it stops dumping any energy into the grid in nanoseconds, literally faster than the contact bounce in your contactor, without any damage or risk to the panel, power electronics, or the rest of the plant

with respect to transmission and battery storage, while there is some reason to locate pv farms some distance from the energy consumers—the consumers may be tightly packed and/or in a cloudy area—there is no reason to locate battery storage far away from energy consumers. you want batteries to be as spread-out as possible, as close to the load as possible, for many reasons: to avoid time-of-day congestion of transmission capacity (and even distribution! point-of-use batteries reduce or eliminate the need to overprovision distribution capacity); to prevent fires from spreading from one battery to another; to eliminate power outages caused by problems in transmission and distribution; to eliminate transmission and distribution energy losses for stored energy; and to reduce the opportunities for rent-seeking by transmission and distribution operators. the land use, climate, and safety considerations that sometimes limit the distribution of pv spreading-out don't apply to spreading battery storage out

as for the o&m costs: while the iea does wonderful work, and i appreciate you pointing to this very informative open-access report, this report is from december 02020, and it's largely built on data from previous years, much of it from plants built years earlier. the main topic of the tomas pueyo article we're commenting on here is how lower prices for solar panels are forcing people to design new solar power generation in ways that 'waste' solar panels in order to commensurately reduce the other associated costs, such as the operation & maintenance costs you refer to in table 3.14

with that in mind, looking at https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis..., pvxchange's current mainstream panel price index is €0,12 per peak watt, and in september 02017 (probably about the average time the plants profiled in the iea report were being built, and as far back as the data currently on that page goes, though archive.org has older versions) it was €0,42 per peak watt. that is to say, solar pv modules cost 250% more at the time. those solar farms were designed for a very different world than the one we live in today, one that could tolerate much higher o&m costs in order to make better use of the comparatively scarcer solar panels

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#620
post #468
post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but 1.1 gigawatts of mainstream solar panels is 0.14 billion usd. $130 per kilowatt of capacity. even at the dismal 10% solar capacity factor achieved in very northerly countries like germany, the reactor is twice the price per average watt, and it needs to be installed far from the point of use—you can't buy a 440-watt nuclear reactor, so you need transmission, distribution, and transformers, all of which incur ener…

One larger cost you might think of with solar is land - but even in the U.K. where land isn’t exactly cheap leasing prices are about £1k an acre per year, and an acre will generate about 350MWh a year, so that’s well under 1 cent per kWh, so it’s lost in the noise. https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/alternative-land-uses-leasing...

where land cost comes in is that it forces you to put solar generation far away from energy consumption, which incurs transmission and distribution costs which can be several times larger than the cost of the generation itself, as documented elsewhere in this thread for urumqi

as an example, a 100-megawatt electric arc furnace might occupy 1000 square meters, and it's amenable to solar's intermittent energy supply in a way that blast furnaces aren't, but even at the ideal kilowatt per square meter, it needs 100 000 square meters of solar panels to power it, about ten city blocks. more plausibly it needs several times that. you can't physically fit those panels closer than hundreds of meters from the arc furnace, and land costs mean you probably have to put them out in the countryside, likely tens of kilometers away

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