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Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

economist.com

611–620 of 817 posts

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#611
1. Subsidized federal loans:

It's crazy that anyone with stable income can walk into a bank and get a __30__ Year loan to buy a house, at below the cost of inflation. The only reason it's possible is because the federal government (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) extend an unconditional guarantee to purchase back loans at a certain interest rate as long as they "conform" with some requirements.

You can see this is true by looking up the cost of investment loans that are not subsidized - interest rates for commercial loans like this are 8-10% today and access is limited to those who have demonstrated competency in the "landlord business" over a long time... i.e., they look more like business loans than home loans.

The government subsidizes up to 10 loans per person. Idk why this was the limit (worth researching), but probably should reduce 2 active loans (allow people to move their primary residence). This would eliminate most of the subsidy and would significantly reduce the "just hold it for 10 years and get free leverage" angle of investing. At that point, people would have to pour money into interest, operate at cash-flow negative to speculate on future value, and suddenly, most would not be interested.

Get rid of 10 subsidized loans per person and the system will quickly start normalizing.

2. (Some) Tax Advantages:

Effective tax rates are lower - but not much. It looks better than it is because while much of the cash flow can be deducted, whatever cannot be deducted is taxed at marginal income levels, rather than capital gains. That literally more than doubles the tax rate for most people, washing out almost all of the interest rate/cost deduction advantage. Doing a 1031 exchange reduce deductibility of depreciation on the next property meaning the cash flow shows up there as taxable.

However, the cost-basis step up at death is crazy and should go.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes that the landlord lives in a different tax jurisdiction. Possible, certainly, but not inevitable.

If he lives in that jurisdiction then he is paying the taxes for the place where he is living.

But also benefits from the taxes paid on the rental property that help pay for things they and their family use.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great conversation as there is so much input from around the world. I can sort of paint the picture of what takes place here (Canada - also a large land mass country). we have a rather large public rail system run by the government (GO Transit: https://www.gotransit.com/en/ ) it is fairly cost effective, modern, and the trains are all new and comfortable. we also have a major problem with a population which…

Interesting. It seems like the main issue is proximity to work and the reasonable demand for a short commute. If that need would be satisfied then i think the resulting effect of wanting to build more in already crowded cities wouldnt be there, thus nimby’ism wouldnt be an issue because either since locals wouldnt feel threatened. When i moved to london uk i had the same opinion as your colleague. I wanted a place to…

> So i am wondering isnt the root of all evil the fact that high paying jobs are clustered around large urban centres? Shouldnt tech have solved this issue by now? Even if people prefer office work, cant this work be done in smaller urban areas?

This gets into an interesting "can of worms" problem.

My background is finance which tends to be clustered around "financial hubs" (London, New York, Toronto...).

Again, I will keep my "Toronto" perspective as I am most familiar with it.

Why are all the banks located on "Bay street"? Because if you dont have a "bay street" address you are a "nobody". This odd mentality can be found globally, "wall street" , specific "pockets" of London.

The "big 5" banks here COULD build places in smaller urban areas, but those lack the "power" of that Bay street address.

Now that we established that for odd reasons you have to be located in "bay street" there is also the view that you must be "seen". Remote work is a career killer in Finance.

One large Canadian bank has started the "we want you back in the office" discussions :

https://financialpost.com/fp-work/rbc-staff-back-office-more...

RBC CEO asks staff to come into the office more often 'Technology can’t replicate the energy, spontaneity, big ideas, true sense of belonging and fun' of being in the office, CEO says

Now RBC has issued a press statement on this, the other Canadian banks will quickly follow suit (they move in lock-step with one another).

So.. work in finance, you need to be on "bay street" monday to friday. You don't want to commute, increase demand to live in Toronto.

Basic economics show that increased demand leads to increases in pricing..

See this :

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/08/toronto-r...

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#614
post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To claim that you need to spend money equal to the tax-assessed value of the building over the course of 30 years to maintain equal value is slightly less ridiculous, but still not exactly reasonable. The (conservative) rule of thumb is 1% of the property value per year in repairs, which would be 30% of the property value over 30 years. And even then, it seems there's no shortage of fairly decrepit buildings that hav…

Here is a starter list of things a house will need over the course of 30 years. - a new roof (maybe two if they are 15 year rooves) -new siding (unless fiber cement siding was installed originally) -new exterior paint -new windows -major repairs to the driveway -2 new furnaces -2 to 3 new water heaters -2 to 3 full new sets of appliances -1 cosmetic kitchen remodel -1 cosmetic remodel of each bathroom -1 to 2 cosmeti…

> Here is a starter list of things a house will need over the course of 30 years.

My house is 25 years old (bought it new) and from your list, the only things I've done is exterior paint and water heater.

I've also done cosmetic landscaping but that was strictly optional, as I like to work on the yard.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“the US is big” Thats what puzzles me. What changed in the dynamics of the american society in such way that new cities are no longer built? I get it in europe there barely and land left to develop, but the us and canada have plenty.

This is a great conversation as there is so much input from around the world. I can sort of paint the picture of what takes place here (Canada - also a large land mass country). we have a rather large public rail system run by the government (GO Transit: https://www.gotransit.com/en/ ) it is fairly cost effective, modern, and the trains are all new and comfortable. we also have a major problem with a population which…

I sympathize with your younger colleague. Spending 1+ hours of your day, 5 out of 7 days per week, just to afford your own house would mean I would opt out of raising a family. Even 30+ min per day commute sounds terrible.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#616
post #28

> But households then need to rein in spending to repay their loans Right now it looks like we may be about to witness something else: inflation is picking up, and if wages even just remotely track the increase in consumer prices (not assured ofc, but conceivable in a time of low unemployment), then those loans and their monthly instalments will actually make up a smaller proportion of household income (especially fo…

People bid on houses the maximum they can afford (assuming supply of houses is constrained). So house prices are driven by people’s income and the interest rates.

If wages go up enough, then you keep the house you have with a low fixed 30 year mortgage (because the mortgage can’t be replaced), and buy another when you want to move.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a home-owner not landlord (I am against the idea of owning more property than my family will use) I WISH I could write off half of my property tax.

I wish I could write off all my personal expenses as business expenses. But I understand why the laws are written such that I can't

I actually don't understand why the laws are written that way, apart from the political goal of causing W2 workers ("suckers") to bear a disproportionate tax burden. A W2 worker incurs expenses that are necessary to earn their income, including food, transportation, clothing, and healthcare. If they were able to account for these necessary expenses as a business does, the expenses would be directly deducted from income.

And that's not even getting into the S-corp self-employment-tax dodge.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are more than exaggerating. Thinking of someone who's 65 now and owns several homes, these people are utter fools. How much would money put into houses 40 years ago when they bought, and put into stocks at the same time, would make? You don't even need to google up to know the answer. SP500 would make 96x with dividends reinvested and 37x without. Median home price is not even 10x, and the median home has…

Why should stocks be an asset class guaranteed to always expand at such a hyperbolic rate?

No guarantees, but stocks capture the value of technological innovation that housing (expect a few markets like SF) does not.

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#619
post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>~30 years later, you've deprecated it down to an effective value of $0 >An no one will now rent, since your building has an effective value of $0 since it has become crap. Are you really in good faith trying to argue that nobody will rent a house that is 30+ years old?

I'd say the truth is somewhere in between. It is really, really not that great unless you have some superbly well located shiny great apartment in Manhattan or some other center center which gets 100% short term rental ie airbnb. But then this is multi-million $$ property. Long term rentals - the gains are minimal given how much capital is completely locked in that property and not doing anything else. If you are luc…

$2500 isn't that far off of the monthly rent for a single apartment in a lot of American cities. Sure, your old door might need a new lock after 30+ years (although given it was 15cm thick I'll bet it was much older than that).

Re: Housing is at the root of many of the rich world’s problems (2020)

#620
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't write off your rental income. You depreciate the rental property over 27½ years and write that off against your rental income. Few rental properties will have under a 3.7% ROI where depreciation would cover all the income. At best you might be paying half tax. In your example, you'd pay no tax, but you'd lose out on the potential income you could have had with better investments (and lose about 6 years' wor…

> I'm not sure how you'd "fix" that without penalizing non-rental companies for expanding. A land value tax would be a pretty straight forward solution to most of the issues around this.

Define land value.
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