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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#611

Post by YZF »

lettergram wrote: post #545
greedo wrote: post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How anyone can look at how the war is going in Ukraine and think that it's any measure of success for Russia is simply not basing this in reality. Russia has already been decisively defeated in Ukraine. Their success is taking Mariupol is like if the US invaded Tijuana and then got stopped on the way to Ensenada. And what Donbas encirclement? The Russians "started" trying to encircle the Donbas in February. They've h…

> Russia has already been decisively defeated in Ukraine. Ugh, then the war would be over. I think the media creates a large set of biases. Recall, much of the media around this is banned. Here are some channels / people I’d recommend for various insights: - Military and Foreign Affairs network (former American tank operator) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DH6i0fJHLHw - The Duran (two Greeks, former attorneys and part…

The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options?

So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has got to be the dumbest war ever.

Re: How This Ends

#612

Post by at-fates-hands »

thatfrenchguy wrote: post #492
lazide wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real estate is going to be gutted - increasing mortgage rates (already have been happening) will decimate qualified buyers. Decreasing prices will further decimate those willing to Hail Mary with cash offers hoping to get something after years of frustration.

It'll make housing even more expensive in 10 years as builders will be decimated like in 2008, we won't build housing for half a decade, and a new generation will look for housing while boomers sit on their 80% vacant 4bd houses they paid 1/5 of the current market price for.

>> It'll make housing even more expensive in 10 years as builders will be decimated like in 2008, we won't build housing for half a decade

This is already happening in the Midwest. Builders have stalled or trying to wait out this supply side shortage - the prices of all building materials have skyrocketed because of it and just in an adjacent neighborhood where they had torn down three houses, the lots are all vacant now and for sale. Builders who had planned to build huge mansions all pulled out and are now just selling the lots.

This has also had a ripple effect on down the amount of houses up for sale. My wife and I decided not to move and have remodeled our entire main floor and are now working on the bathrooms. We're staying put. I heard on a weekend real estate show they were saying two months ago, that out of the 15,000 houses/condo's/townhomes available, when you start to filter out townhomes and condos, then take out all the million dollar and above houses? You're left with less than 200 single and multi-family homes on the market. An absolute staggering number.

A lot of people on both sides are trying to wait this out. But like you said, its going to have some serious long-term consequences for everybody.

Re: How This Ends

#613

Post by qq66 »

scarab92 wrote: post #491
fny wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At 10% rates I think the fair value of the S&P becomes something like 2000 assuming the same earnings. High yield rates would moon and tons of bankruptcies would ensue. Consider how heavily pensions and retirement accounts are concentrated in stocks. The ramifications of reaching a point like that would be devastating, so yes, I think dead is not alarmist but appropriate.

That's only true if investors think the 10% rates are permanent. Future interest rates are a time series not a single value, and I suspect most will use a lower rate in later years reflecting some mean reversion.

But you can lock in rates for decades.

Re: How This Ends

#614

Post by robocat »

nostrademons wrote: post #338
politician wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Defense economics will prevent this transition to city-states from happening.

I would've agreed with you until about 5 years ago. The reason I disagree with you now is because technology and methods of war-fighting have changed. Emerging defense technologies like drones, lasers, robots, micro-scale manufacturing, and self-driving vehicles - along with the latest generation of existing weaponry like MANPADS and anti-tank missiles - all preference the defender. They allow a group of relatively u…

Cities are delicate clockwork machines with complicated supply chains: the attacker might struggle against a city’s hacker weapons, but the city will fall because a city is complex and a city needs many specialty inputs to function.

Changing topic: you said upthread “[people are] vastly underestimating the difficulty of bringing a complex system like the economy up from a cold start. In my experience with complex systems that are much less complex than the economy, it can't be done.”. Your personal example is irrelevant because it is a single person trying to restart an economy. Cities recover after earthquakes (my city Christchurch 2010) and wars (I have visited ex-Yugoslavia) due to many independent actors working, perhaps not so much due to your “command economy” example. Capitalist individuals route around damage. Although I admit effective centralised government helped Christchurch recover quickly.

Re: How This Ends

#615

Post by YZF »

didericis wrote: post #498
axiosgunnar wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I see Russia winning on all fronts tbh. I do not, and anyone else not trying to be contrarian and edgy on the back's of a humanitarian catastrophe does not either. Russia's goal was a blitzkrieg surprise win, measured in hours, taking over the capital and the government, before the West could even muster up sanctions. They have failed abysmally at that, and capturing a few towns in Eastern Ukraine (just a little bi…

They seem to have lost their initial short term objectives, and the fog of war is real/I can’t tell how good or bad they’re currently doing, but I think regardless of their competency or resolve it’s foolish to underestimate a China-Russia coalition’s resiliency long term, if only due to their much more totalitarian hold over their populace. The lack of easy avenues for a change in leadership even if extremely disast…

There's definitely fog of war but the front lines have barely moved despite Russia bringing all its might to bear. We saw the images of those demolished Russian forces at that ill fated river crossing. We keep seeing evidence of Russia suffering continuous losses.

What we don't see much of is the Ukrainian side's losses. Their morale and will seem extremely high though.

The Ukrainians have a numerical advantage over the mobilized Russian army. They have an advantage as a defender and they have a double advantage because they are defending their families and homes. The Russians don't know what they're fighting for and why they're even there.

The Ukrainians are backed by the west (though maybe not enough) with potential access to weaponry that can tip the balance. They appear to generally be applying better tactics vs. the Russians brute force and level everything to the ground approach. So really the only thing stopping them from pushing the Russians out right now is access to more and better weapons (which might be improving in the coming weeks with the new US aid package).

Re: China I think they're looking at this and recalculating. Taiwan is probably not happening. Their "strategic" partner that's supposed to be a super power turned out to be full of hot air. Western weapon superiority is proven again. They want to win economically, they don't like instability. And sure, just like anywhere else, totalitarian regimes don't last for ever.

Another factor is that other countries are looking at this and also reaching the conclusion that the western hegemony that appears to maybe be not doing so great actually is still doing pretty well.

All that said, it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. This is just so stupid.

Re: How This Ends

#616

Post by rcpt »

riku_iki wrote: post #222
rcpt wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Low interest rate doesn't mean low monthly payment

It means monthly payments are lower than if person would sell and buy with higher interest. It is very strong incentive to not sell.

But it also means that recent buyers might have stretched and won't be able to make payments. If stocks do badly or someone gets laid off they'll need to sell and downsize or rent

Re: How This Ends

#617

Post by rcpt »

noduerme wrote: post #592
fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

I wonder to what degree generational culture plays a part. My father, for example (born pre-WWII), would never buy growth stocks. Not even when he was young. He bought only dividend yielding stocks, reinvested 100% of the dividends and never sold anything until his retirement. My generation (X) has a more balanced approach, with a mix of growth and value stocks dependent on risk tolerance, trending toward value stock…

For young people betting on the far future looks just as crazy as GME calls

Re: How This Ends

#618

Post by rohitb91 »

pm90 wrote: post #437
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid is over, the excess deaths are low, or even zero. War in ukraine would be a nothingburger if americans were involved (like noone cares about yemen, syria, now somalia, and noone cared about afghanistan, iraq, and even serbia). Most of the current problems that we have are caused by the politicians directly, and not by covid/war/whatever, and sadly, they're the first that will have to go, if we want to return to…

Literally nothing in this comment is true.

Russia invades ukraine, world becomes hysterical, mass sanctions, everyone stands with ukraine

America invades a country that has nothing to do with 9/11 and kills 500k+ (realistically 1mm+) civilians, no one stands with Iraq, and if they do they're terrorist states.

You know you can't see propaganda when...

Re: How This Ends

#619

Post by rcpt »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #485
fny wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it does. If you invested near the dot com peak or the japan peak, you still haven't made your money back. This notion of passive investing that has been pounded into peoples heads for years is complete bullshit and has only worked because there was always someone else ready to pay more for the same asset and because rates were perpetually held low. Some points to consider: (1) You have fewer millennials than baby…

> If you invested near the dot com peak or the japan peak, you still haven't made your money back. What does this even mean? That you invested the only money you ever invested entirely in the relatively brief period of the dot com peak? Who does that? (Obviously not nobody, but ...) To all effects and purposes, nobody does that. So what it really means is "the money you invested during that one period (perhaps a year…

> you invested the only money you ever invested entirely in the relatively brief period

That's pretty common for a mortgage

Re: How This Ends

#620

Post by rcpt »

boppo1 wrote: post #584
quickthrower2 wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am bullish for software developers. Since 2001 I have not been fired or laid off. I have been able to get a job within 4 weeks the whole time. (Probably 1 week if not fussy and just need money). Software is still eating the world, it just might have a bit of constipation during this period. Developers can save companies money - handy in a recession. Developers can sell their skills globally (that has negatives too…

I sure hope so because I'm out here reading Stroustrup and CLRS to start a career at 30. But it really seems like there's a glut of tech companies with investment capital paying people 300k to make apps for stuff that's trivial. Juicero tier stuff, all over the place. I worry it will collapse and SWE is gonna be your run of the mill 45k job from then on.

Then don't work for juicero
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