Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation • Hacker News Board

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#611

Post by notreallyserio » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:01 PM UTC

thatguy0900 wrote: post #136

whydid wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I love to study history, you can almost predict the future by studying the past. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Revolution

I wonder how much time we have left for a real citizen revolution. Is is not difficult to imagine a near future with an automated and mechanized military and police with equipment that cannot go rogue. People in the US like to talk about guns as protections against state tyranny but not many have automated laser point defence for drone attacks.

> People in the US like to talk about guns as protections against state tyranny

They do, but you can ignore it -- it's mostly lies and bluster. If they insist, ask them the last time they participated in (or even saw) an uprising due to government theft by civil asset forfeiture.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#612

Post by sigmaprimus » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

NoGravitas wrote: post #546

PickledHotdog wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of people from a certain generation who say "You'll be more conservative as you get older!" which happened to them because they accrued wealth and assets and (somewhat naturally) want to protect them. But when you can't accrue wealth or assets (for all of the reasons other posters have listed above), you probably don't end up becoming more conservative as you get older. Quite the opposite. You're tryi…

Yep. I'm pushing 50, and over the last 20 years, I've gone from being a progressive liberal to a Marxist-Leninist. You don't get more conservative as you get older, you get more conservative as you get wealthier.

[flagged]

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

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Post by colinmhayes » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

neonbjb wrote: post #55

baron816 wrote: post #18

This isn’t exactly great news, but it’s probably not as bad as you think. It means that inflation is a tractable problem. The Fed as a lot of tools at its disposal (first of which is to take its foot off the gas). If we were in a situation where workers were demanding higher wages because they were expecting prices to go up, and businesses were raising prices to pay workers who were demanding higher wages, then we’d…

This is wrong IMO - the fed has NO tools in its hands. Its last tool was inflation rates, and it burned that during the great recession. It is now caught in a pickle: raise interest rates, causing a mass exodus of wealth from securities to savings accounts and CDs and causing the stock market to tumble (like it arguably always should have done since 2008), or let inflation take its course. I am not an economist, and…

> I am not an economist

People who don't know shit about economics sure love to bust out their ignorant opinions.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

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Post by bumby » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

shakezula wrote: post #519

pydry wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because both parties are owned by oligarchs who would lose money if that happened. Minimum wage hikes chew through profits and profits are pretty much the #1 legislative priority because that's the primary concern of those doing the campaign financing. Same reason gun control wont happen no matter how many people get killed - ultimately its because gun manufacturers would lose money. American politics is the art of t…

And the reason countries like NZ seem to be able to quickly and efficiently pass sweeping gun reform laws is because it’s not effecting any major gun producers bottom line. In America that is very much not the situation. Additionally, even if profits were a moot point, the 2nd amendment is a culture war wedge issue that runs bone-deep for the average American.

Does NZ have an equivalent of the 2nd Amendment?

In the US, States can regulate, even those without strong ties to manufacturers. The fact that many haven’t makes me think the 2A is a bigger issue than profits.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

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Post by 988747 » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

what_is_orcas wrote: post #559

sokoloff wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it reasonable to expect that a minimum wage earner should be able to afford to buy a house and a newish car? Were minimum wage earners doing that in 1970?

Yes it is. Why should the minimum wage not provide a sufficiently secure life for the worker? I say this all the time: if you can't afford to pay your workers a living wage you can't afford to be in business .

Because minimum wage job is supposed to be temporary. You do it right after high school, for couple years, before you decide on what you want your "real" job to be. Or you do it part time to pay your expenses while attending college. No minimum wage work should be something you do your whole life.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#616

Post by colinmhayes » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

actually_a_dog wrote: post #60

baron816 wrote: post #18

This isn’t exactly great news, but it’s probably not as bad as you think. It means that inflation is a tractable problem. The Fed as a lot of tools at its disposal (first of which is to take its foot off the gas). If we were in a situation where workers were demanding higher wages because they were expecting prices to go up, and businesses were raising prices to pay workers who were demanding higher wages, then we’d…

That narrative makes sense, except for one thing: why wouldn't the Fed have taken their foot off the gas once inflation hit, say, 4%? Why wait until we're at 6.8%?

Inflation has been well below goal levels in recent years. Their goal this year was to have it well above average to make up for the past and keep unemployment low.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#617

Post by micromacrofoot » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

ricardobayes wrote: post #312

hvidgaard wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What good is new tech if you cannot afford to buy a house or a new'ish car for the minimum wage, even if you live frugal and save?

I saaw that happening in Budapest. Every young person has a new iPhone and wearing new sneakers, but living with parents.

I mean alright but even if you pay $1,200 every other year for a new phone... that was never enough to cover rent anyway.

Some people are probably blowing $1,200 a month on stuff they don't need... but it certainly isn't the source of widespread income inequality.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#618

Post by treis » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #556

treis wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>think the important numbers here are the salary and housing cost ones. In 1970 the average house could be purchased for less than 2 years of salary. Today it costs 5.8 years of salary. But no one pays cash for their house. They get a mortgage and so the monthly mortgage payment is (mostly) what matters. Back in the 70s you're paying 10%+ on your mortgage while today it's more like 3.

That is true, but somehow elides the reality that even if interest rates were zero, you would still end up having to "divert" 5.8 years of median salary to own a median house in 2021, which has significant implications for lots of other aspects of life, particularly but not limited to retirement.

But, again, you're using purchase price which is not how people buy homes. For $100,000 borrowed that's $422 a month at 3% and and $1,264 at 15%. Mortgage payments as a % of income are at historic lows:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP

This is an unusually good time to be a home owner. You can borrow at near 0 or even slightly negative real interest rates and buy an asset that is almost guaranteed to hold/increase in value.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#619

Post by bumby » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:07 PM UTC

germinalphrase wrote: post #592

pydry wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gun industry started the culture war for profit and fans the flames for profit. Take away the profit margins and have a few more mass shootings and I imagine the 2nd amendment would melt away as easily as the 4th did.

Even if we entirely ended the manufacture and sale of guns, there are far too many guns already in private possession for it to matter (I.e. there are more guns in circulation right now than there are people in this country). As a gun owner, it is obvious that to eliminate mass shootings we would have to eliminate private ownership of all semi-automatic firearms. That is so incredibly far outside the realm of possibi…

For those downvoting, consider when NJ banned bump stocks and required them to be turned in. There was a total of one turned in voluntarily last I heard.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

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Post by rspeele » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 4:07 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #511

AlexandrB wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why minimum wage isn't tied to the CPI by default. I supposed there's a risk of it creating a positive feedback loop, but only a small portion of the workforce is paid at minimum wage. It seems capricious for minimum wage to only be increased when the legislative branch decides it's popular enough to fight for.

Because both parties are owned by oligarchs who would lose money if that happened. Minimum wage hikes chew through profits and profits are pretty much the #1 legislative priority because that's the primary concern of those doing the campaign financing. Same reason gun control wont happen no matter how many people get killed - ultimately its because gun manufacturers would lose money. American politics is the art of t…

The biggest gun manufacturer you can buy stock in is Ruger (RGR) with a market cap of 1.17B. Add Smith & Wesson and you're at 2B. Throw in Vista Outdoors which owns many of the top US ammo brands (plus some minor firearm and accessory brands) and you can get the total up to 4.3B.

I'll multiply that by 10 to guesstimate privately held companies, local gun stores, and the rest of the long tail. So let's say we're at $43 billion for the whole gun industry in the US.

Isn't that kind of podunk scale for an industry to have a rock solid hold on US politics? Snapchat alone is valued at $72B. Ford is $80B. Pfizer is $330B. Dollar General is $51B. Heck, Office Depot is worth more than S&W or Ruger.