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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#611

Post by ImaCake »

mehrdadn wrote: post #598
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) The fatality rate of a car crash is also about 0.5% [1], but that doesn't prevent us from driving. That means there's a piece of the puzzle missing here, right? Note that I'm not concluding this means we should go to gyms (or whatever). I'm just pointing out your analysis is missing an important factor, making it faulty/unconvincing. Edit: Changed the statistic sour…

>The chances of dying in a car crash are 1%, but that doesn't prevent us from driving.

I don't think that statistic is even close to right. I know exactly zero people who have died in a car crash. Many of them are quite old.

The Australian statistics suggest that the odds of anyone in Australia dying of a car crash are 0.0000478 per person per year. This is considerably smaller than your statistic and so I am going to dispute it, at the risk of you thinking I am stupid.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#612

Post by claydavisss »

readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

[dead]

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#613

Post by drevil-v2 »

lazide wrote: post #358
andrelayer wrote: post #332

I think a lot of people in this discussion are pitting the argument at people prioritizing their individual choices over the collective health of the community. I think that is a very singular framing from one side. A lot of people I know just believe that the virus itself is not as deadly as the reaction warrants. The infectious mortality rate of Covid is at best twice that of the normal flu, which isn't nothing and…

Best data I've seen is 6x (.63% IFR). And due to lack of existing immunity from the Flu which keeps the flu at less than 10% of the population/yr, we're looking at a dramatic death toll. That people don't want to believe it, without evidence to the contrary, just makes them solidly into the wishful thinking category - and likely spreaders that will inevitably get someone killed.

Where do you stand on the BLM protests/riots? I assume that is haram too?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#614

Post by recursive »

monocasa wrote: post #597
recursive wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this. Under what circumstances are you proposing that we'd be able to open back up? What's different now (or could have been) than it was when you claim we should be been locking down the first time? Certainly no amount of locking down would completely eradicate the virus, so what's the exit strategy?

Look at Wuhan; they're having pool parties with thousands of people. There is an exit strategy, and we'd be part of it if we could have just followed the directions of doctors and epidemiologists.

I can't see Wuhan from here.

What directions did they follow that allows Wuhan to have pool parties? I don't understand how having pool parties can be ok. Does the virus not exist there? How can that be possible?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#615

Post by claudeganon »

mehrdadn wrote: post #598
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) The fatality rate of a car crash is also about 0.5% [1], but that doesn't prevent us from driving. That means there's a piece of the puzzle missing here, right? Note that I'm not concluding this means we should go to gyms (or whatever). I'm just pointing out your analysis is missing an important factor, making it faulty/unconvincing. Edit: Changed the statistic sour…

Car crashes don’t spread car crashes to others, silently and multiplicatively. Exponential risks are not the same as individual ones.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#616

Post by jdavis703 »

mehrdadn wrote: post #598
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) The fatality rate of a car crash is also about 0.5% [1], but that doesn't prevent us from driving. That means there's a piece of the puzzle missing here, right? Note that I'm not concluding this means we should go to gyms (or whatever). I'm just pointing out your analysis is missing an important factor, making it faulty/unconvincing. Edit: Changed the statistic sour…

I think this is comparing the lifetime chance of various causes of death against the chance of death by COVID-19 complications after getting infected. In fact, the original report says it's too soon to know what the actual risk of COVID-19 related death is.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#617

Post by seizethecheese »

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

> congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to some vulnerable person (probably your parents or a school teacher) with a 1 in 10 chance of death.

This is wrong and misleading. You're quoting the average fatality rate for "healthy" people, but the distribution doesn't look like that at all. Then, you cherrypick 10% out of nowhere for "parents and school teachers". 10% is the rate for people in their 80s.

Real data: "[t]he estimated IFR is close to zero for younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3% for ages 50-59, 1.3% for ages 60-69, 4% for ages 70-79, 10% for ages 80-89."[1]

[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#618

Post by polote »

michaelmrose wrote: post #579
polote wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I find it amazing we can not see short term sacrifice for long term gain. Maybe because nobody successfully proved to these people (me included) that this sacrifice is useful. You can't tell to people, you have no risk of dying (0.5% death rate for population, much much lower for healthy and young people), people who are at risk of dying can protect themselves even around sick people (wearing a mask, staying at hom…

If people like you wont wear a mask or social distance and the portion that are asymptomatic pass it around you will help it spread far and wide maximizing the chances that even careful people will become ill eventually. Wearing a mask is mostly about keeping the respiratory droplets of the ill, including the 40-50% which don't have obvious symptoms from spreading around. If only the vulnerable wear masks they wont b…

I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to sacrifice a lot of my freedom to prevent unhealthy or old people to die. You could tell me that I'm wrong, but as far as I know, I'm the only one able to know how I want to live my life

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#619

Post by asdff »

crazygringo wrote: post #20
dfxm12 wrote: post #6

I don't get it. Unless you're training for a very specific purpose (like an MMA fight or football season), why do you need specific indoor gym equipment? Shelter in place orders are largely lifted, so you can workout outside: run, do pull ups on a tree branch, ride a bike, lift a heavy stone, do an outdoor yoga class, etc. Hell, you only need maybe a 6' x 6' area for a perfectly effective body weight routine, even in…

"Lift a heavy stone"? That's a joke, right? Barbells and dumbbells are appropriately ergonomic (handles, balance, etc.) and won't ruin your back if you use proper technique. Lifting a heavy stone is a recipe for injuring yourself severely . People need specific indoor gym equipment if they lift, which is a very valid form of exercise. Or, you know, if it's raining or thunderstorming or a humid 100°F outside. And body…

You can use cheap resistance bands instead of pricey and heavy barbells and still get great results. You can hit all the same muscle groups just as hard. Honestly you probably hit more groups than what you hit in olympic lifts. These bands are also very available online compared to other equipment.

Some light reading on the subject:

https://yoga-horizons.com/pdfs/Fatmans-Guide-to-Cable-Traini...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#620

Post by mancerayder »

readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

How short term is short term? It's been six months with no end in sight. If you're a fitness enthusiast living in an apartment, you're screwed. All well and good if you've never had any interest in a gym, but if it's one of your primary hobbies to maintain mental health, then it's not a 'those people' thing. And again I speak as someone trying to replicate a gym in his apartment and getting exasperated.

People with houses and garages shouldn't be as critical, given their comparative privilege here.

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