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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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611–620 of 718 posts

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#611
post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue has been studied extensively. There is plenty of stuff available out there if you go look.

Yes, and I haven’t seen anything suggesting that it’s Prop 13 that’s responsible for majority of the premium in California’s housing costs compared to other states. It’s not nothing, but it pales in comparison to zoning regulations and requirements for environmental traffic etc impact studies that drag on and on.

some numbers: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20160327

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#612
post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up until recently Dallas / Ft. Worth and Miami where conservative. The Cubans that fled communism held Miami as a conservative metro up until about 15-20 years ago. Orlando and Tampa where the same. Orlando for different reasons but Tampa was largely due to the conservative Cubans as well. Texas and Florida are two of the states that are experiencing meteoric growth and to imply that those moving in are not shifting…

Miami has never been conservative, at most they had some conservative Cubans, who hardly ever had a plurality in the area. Dallas has never been co see stove either, that is what Ft. Worth and it’s suburbs were for. Texas really wants a tech industry, which is why it is importing lots of liberals. By that I mean these people don’t move to Texas to be in Texas, rather they were lured their by great job opportunities.

People move to Texas for cheap housing.

That’s the biggest thing these states have going for them. Lots of space and associated cheap housing.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#613
post #302
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people are sick of it. I wonder if people considered voting the politicians who made these laws out. Judging from CA voting patterns, probably not. And then when it gets really bad, they move to another state and likely vote for the same policies that caused them to move in the first place.

California has largely become a single party state. I'm not trying to start an argument between Democrats and Republicans here, but we can clearly see a pattern everywhere in the world. Once single party rule is institutionalized the politicians are no longer accountable to voter interests.

It's not even that it's one party. Since there's only two parties, there's a lot of variance within each, and you can be a Democrat without trying to make freelance work impossible, petty crime routine, streets smeared with human excrement and a trip in public transportation both rare and dangerous. I don't see why even somebody who would never vote Republican still can't choose not to vote for somebody like politicians who pushed through the idiotic AB5, for example. Or the ones who have been in charge for so many other ills plaguing modern California. I don't think it's party-against-party thing. If CA voters wanted, they could vote for much saner policies still well within the mainstream of Democrats (or at least something that has been mainstream of Democrats before 2016), but for some reason they do not.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#614
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistically, people are moving from rural areas and to urban areas. Rural areas tend to be conservative and economically depressed. Urban areas tend to have high paying jobs and be liberal or progressive. Aside from a few state/city couplings(Omaha, NE comes to mind) a US "State" is a poor indicator of differentiated policy or ideology. People in Atlanta or Miami or LA or Seattle have a lot more in common with each…

plenty of the most populous areas in the world are not liberal and progressive. There are at least 20 cities in China larger than NYC. I'm sure India has it's share. So does the middle East and south East Asia. Let's not make assumptions based only on majority populations of European descent.

>There are at least 20 cities in China larger than NYC.

This is incorrect.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#615

My wife and I moved here to California (my home state) mid-2018 from Michigan (her home state). We moved out here for a startup, but shortly after relocating the founder ran out of money and could no longer pay me. This was a huge shock because on the surface everything was fine and dandy. Got totally bamboozled. I still remember walking into our co-working spot to pick up some mail and was told that I should leave t…

> An idea we are tossing around is buying land and building our own home from scratch, which is something we could never even imagine doing here in California Doable in places like Joshua Tree or Quincy (NorCal).

There are empty lots for sale even in dense parts of LA.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the 2016 election while my friends were freaking out and moping I went and drilled down into the fine grained election results. You are absolutely right. The difference is really between 'the city' and exurban. Notable the size of 'the city' doesn't matter. In thinly populated areas the city might only be 15-20,000 people. But they all voted for liberal/progressive/left leaning candidates.

I think there are a lot of issues where the republican/democrat divide is very directly influenced by rural/urban environments. (please do not assume any of the following takes a stance on these issues. Also don't imagine I know what I'm talking about) On gun control, rural areas can have more than one gun per person with virtually no impact on an already negligible violent crime rate, while urban areas have fewer gu…

Except no one talks about guns that are used for hunting when talking about gun control policy (maybe the idiots who use massive powered automatic rifles for shooting deer may be slightly affected).

Politicians use gun control policy to create divisions in people, but the actual gun control policies being considered themselves almost always poll very well amongst all Americans including those in rural areas and hunters.

It’s like Obamacare, where the actual policies within are supported by overwhelming majorities, but obamacare barely breaks even.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#617
post #68

Cost of living is real. Weather is real. Outside of a few highly nomadic ultra-high net worth types the tax advantages of moving states is just too trivial in absolute terms for most people to bother with. The idea that masses of people are moving for lower taxes seems like a rhetorical invention of the WSJ editorial page versus anything rooted in reality.

CA's income tax is very high. The effective tax rate is 7%+ for most tech workers. That's a huge amount of income to give up, especially if you're comparing to a state with no or low income tax.

Should be higher imo

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#618
post #296
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll spend the time and effort to move for a couple grand a year? Does that really make sense? How many years does it take to break even?

Spoken like someone who is out of touch. Yes, for a family making $85K, having an extra $3-4K in your pocket every year is a big deal .

Spoken like someone who has never moved.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#619
post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> hope you understand that it’s “progressive” policy which has caused crime to explode Crime has not exploded in California. California’s violent crime rate rose in 2017—but it remains historically low. The statewide property crime rate decreased in 2017. Crime rates vary dramatically by region and category. Violent crime increased in a majority of counties but property crime decreased in most counties. [0] [0] https…

I don't trust any property crime "stat" in any moderately sized city. Every single person I know whose had property crime happen to them which is in multiple cities and states doesn't even bother reporting it because the cops won't do anything so it's just a waste of time.

Sounds like you’re the property criminal, because the odds of every single person you know having property crime committed against them is ridiculously low, unless you’re the one committing it.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#620
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people aren’t bothering to report crimes now. The police won’t do anything about it. You can pretty much get away will minor property crimes/theft now without any repercussions.

If we're making assertions contrary to data and treading on unfalsifiable positions, then I suppose the source is anecdotes, and I suppose mine are as good as any: I lived in Los Angeles in the early 90s for two years, and visited frequently through the rest of the decade. Experienced petty crime on at least 3 occasions, had a few close calls with violent crime, saw the Rodney King riots unfold, and heard some pretty…

Depends on where you live. Hancock park? Sure, no petty crime other than burglaries. Pretty much anywhere else but the most bougie neighborhoods are rife with petty crime.

When I flew for the holidays my bike was stolen out of a gated garage. LAPD isn't going to jump on a grenade for my bike. Cars parked along the street are regularly targeted for smash and grabs. The nearby encampment maintains a cache of torn apart electric scooters and bike parts (maybe mine is in there too). I've been on a bus that was 'ambushed' for a bike mounted in the rack out front. Last week on the train two unstable men made eye contact and started posturing and raising their voices, one pulled a shiv out of his pocket and luckily the other one fled the car, but that could have been bad. Life on the west side, but I still wouldn't trade it for anything.

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