Live data from Hacker News

Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

611–620 of 705 posts

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#611
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand, why would you need self driving cars if you don't want to drive? Public transport is here, is cheaper and safer. Also it allows to multitask.

autonomous or not, taking the bus is still going to be a craptacular experience.

Hey, I love my bus. It's a really pleasant part of my morning.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#612
post #609

As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Also, four entities have launched rockets into space: the US, China, the Soviet Union (Russia) and Elon Musk. This guy is thinking and planning on a scale I find it hard to even imagine, to fit in my brain.

What? No. Orbital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orbital_Sciences_Corporation) launched a rocket into space in 1990, entirely privately.

France [1], Japan [2], India [3], Israel [4], Iran [5], and even North Korea [6] have developed and launched rockets that successfully put satellites in orbit.

I like Elon as much as the next guy, but this mythologizing is just too much.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamant

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda_(rocket_family)

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_Launch_Vehicle

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shavit

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safir_(rocket)

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Tesla also subsidized by the government?

That's not the subsidy I'm referring to. How much would it cost you to create a barrel of crude oil? Not "extract from the ground", the usual meaning of "producing oil", which borrows rather more from "produce the evidence" than "manufacture the good". But actually start with high-entropy substrates and some energy source and synthesize oil. Why do markets not account for this cost? (Hotelling's Rule is ignored, and…

Why would it make any sense to account for the effort needed to produce oil from high-entropy substrates and an energy source? If you're going that far, why not take it to its logical conclusion and ask how much it would cost to create a barrel of crude oil starting from nothing at all, creating your own Big Bang and going from there? As Sagan said, if you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.

There are certainly implicit subsidies for oil, in the form of the externalities like health and environmental damage from the pollution emitted when using it. But it makes no sense to me to account for the work that went into creating the oil. Hordes of microbes already did that work millions or billions of years ago. It's done, it's there, and the cost of taking advantage of that work is just the cost of extraction and use.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#615
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you will about their "antiquated" business practices, but Ford consistently does one thing that Tesla never does: it turns a profit

Don't they lose money on every single model except the F-150?

That would imply something like a $10,000 profit on each F-150, if all the other models just broke even. Seems unlikely.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

autonomous or not, taking the bus is still going to be a craptacular experience.

Hey, I love my bus. It's a really pleasant part of my morning.

last time I took the bus some guy fell asleep on my shoulder. It's loud, slow, too warm, uncomfortable, and literally makes me feel ill about half the time (I get terrible motion sickness).

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#617
post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

I've only mildly followed him, but I remember hearing he is extremely aggressive with his timelines. Is he normally so far off on his estimates?

The standard joke is that Elon runs on Mars time, so "1 year" for him is about 1.9 standard years.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#618
> The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release

Doesn't Tesla charge a large fee to have autopilot enabled on your car? Isn't that equally morally reprehensible?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you live that this is not the case? I know some states have (or had) a "no-fault" approach to automobile liability claims but I thought it was a minority and perhaps had been mostly abandonded? Who else would be responsible, if not the owner?

The driver?

That makes obvious sense, but then the question becomes who has to have insurance on the car that's being driven: the owner/primary user, or the current driver? Generally I can drive my parent's or friend's car without an issue even if I'm not the person insuring the car, because the car is insured, but if I get into an accident the person responsible is not necessarily the driver, it's the insurance holder. Would we require every driver to have insurance for the car they're driving (and if we did, laws would have to chance because you can't currently have insurance "per hour").

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#620

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Tesla won't sell them to him, man. Why would they, when Elon's just said he's going to create their own autonomous fleet? Why would they hand it over to Uber? Of course they're competing! Elon's just said they're going to make a fleet of autonomous electric taxis! Travis wasn't being literal; he knows there aren't going to be 500,000 available for a single company to buy for many years. And even if it weren't red…

Why wouldn't they sell them? They are in the business of making money, and if Uber offers to pay a premium or sign a contract, it would allow Tesla to grow much quicker, expand capacity, and make even MORE money. A self driving car bought by Uber would pay for itself in under 2 years easy. I am sure Uber would pay quite a lot for THAT opportunity.

Here is my prediction: Uber and Tesla will never have any business dealings.

Time will tell.

Post reply on HN