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Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

desfontain.es

601–610 of 662 posts

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#601
post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Russia ... have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight What do you mean? In the last 25 years life expectancy in Russia has risen by almost 10 years [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locat...

The numbers since 2022 are to be taken with a bucket of salt. And it's undeniable that the whole country is falling backwards - the economy is in tatters with high inflation, high interest rates , severe economic and kinetic damage to the main revenue generating activities (export of oil, gas, raw materials, military equipment), a poorly hidden ballooning debt crisis. And worst of all, a leader who cannot admit defea…

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Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, I apologize What's the fine for not registering your move? What time do you have to update your location? In Russia in the 90s we had 5 days and now it's three months. The fine is 3000 rubles (~40 euro) and zero if you moved in the same region (most of them are bigger than Switzerland:) or live at relative's or spouse's place I used to think that what we have in Russia is Soviet legacy (albeit relaxed)…

Usually 14 days and ~50-200 CHF. But you can usually do it online now, so it's trivial.

Thanks, so it's about the same considering the difference in personal income

Yep, it's online in Russia too

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#603
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran, Haiti, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, Argentina have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight.

>Russia ... have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight What do you mean? In the last 25 years life expectancy in Russia has risen by almost 10 years [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locat...

Since your other comment got rightfully flagged, I'll respond to you here.

The numbers from 2024 are reflective of the complete disappearance of russia from global markets. For instance, there have been no military procurement deals after 2023, only deliveries of previously ordered stuff.

The poorly hidden debt crisis is within the regions paying the death and recruitment bonuses, and the military contractors forced to sell at a loss and being propped up by state backed loans (one went bankrupt recently). Neither of those show up on official state debt numbers, but are unquestionably a problem for the state budget to fix. The one where 50% is being wasted to achieve nothing in Ukraine. At the best of times there are a few kilometres here and there, but even that is over now.

Ukrainians still unequivocally support keeping the war until russia agrees to leave them the fuck alone, and they get security guarantees (if you think you have polls saying otherwise, look again in the questions and answers, a tiny majority are ready to surrender Eastern Ukraine to end the war now, but practically nobody is willing to do so without guarantees). Those are achievable objectives. On the other side the leadership cannot admit defeat or they'll get toppled, and has no hope of achieving anything they could spin as a victory. So they keep wasting human lives to prolong the inevitable defeat.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#604
post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gerrymandering is most effective when you know exact voting patterns of each household so you can draw the lines to get the result you want. Differential privacy blurs those boundaries and provides more room for the partisan hacks to make a fatal mistake.

Sounds very unlikely in practice. Any evidence anyone actually tried to deanonymize this data for this purpose?

This is nowhere near household level but is it good enough for horseshoes or hand grenades? I did this almost 20 years ago. I could combine this with aerial and streetview, ALPRs, DMV data, smartphone telemetry...

http://athena.m3047.net/elections/36th-dist-colored.html

http://athena.m3047.net/elections/dist-not-normal/distributi...

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are asking what policy decisions hinge on that religion question. Given 1st amendment protections against government policy that favors one religion over another, I think that’s a fair question to ask.

Don’t some countries in EU have face covering bans that have to take religious practices into consideration? Isn’t (non) taxation of religious institutions an ongoing debate? Wouldn’t knowing religious census data aid in exploring that? Those are two things that’s popped into my head immediately. If I thought about it for an extended period of time, especially if I knew more about governed t and law, I’m sure there w…

We are talking about the US census. The 1st amendment freedom of religion is a US-only thing.

For example, the US can have a law banning or allowing face coverings, but cannot have a law allowing face covering for members of one religion but not others.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#606
Interesting article, but I don't fully agree that it means what people seem to think it means. Note that the author says "People who were using Census data to actually reconstruct records could no longer do so. Demographers admitted that this was common practice. It's also an open secret that this was done by political operatives as part of gerrymandering efforts."

I do surprising things with math on occasion, but I'm not a licensed statistician. I don't know what they do in private, but in public statisticians, or people trying to sound like them, seem to fool around with horseshoes and hand grenades a lot.

The Census Bureau doesn't just do the decennial census. For instance due to a convoluted jurisdictional dispute (near as I can tell), I ended up on the agricultural census for several years (until they figured out I wasn't trying to make a profit).

I have concerns about data privacy, but I'm more concerned with private entities trading in it and data integrity. I'm extremely concerned about the misuse of privately produced databases, especially by government functions. I get the impression that for a lot of folks the notion that private databases could be biased in the favor of the provider's interests in order to get favorable treatment from their customers or punish their detractors seems to be an "unknown unknown". We're veering into serious Dunning-Kruger territory attempting to use phone numbers, email addresses, and biometrics for identity / KYC. At this very moment the FCC is getting ready to order telecomms providers collect PII for people buying ALL phones, so they won't have any excuse not to sell that to all comers /s.

Private armies are regulated in the United States, and private data brokers should be similarly regulated for largely congruent reasons.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#607
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran, Haiti, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, Argentina have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight.

>Russia ... have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight What do you mean? In the last 25 years life expectancy in Russia has risen by almost 10 years [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locat...

[flagged]

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#608
post #124

I "enumerated" for the last census. Trust in my community was already not high* and I had lots of interesting encounters. I really believed the rather invasive data I was collecting with a friendly face would be used and handled responsibly. I feel for the poor souls that'll sign up to go door to door for 2030 now that the firewalls against weaponizing and monetizing all of our sensitive government data has been torn…

I respect that you recognize that the sample you were given for investigation may not be representative of your community in all respects. Does the Census Bureau publish statistics on the people they have to send interviewers for? Just asking, maybe I'll have to go check their site.

Other comments here about Germany and whatnot falls flat, and short. This is America, and part of it is being ok with your neighbors (unless they're truly insane and release plagues of rabbits or burn themselves out of their homes, but I digress), try to find some common ground even if it's awkward and you have to look the other way about some slights and trespasses.

I don't know how much trouble they went to to "fit" you to the cohort they tasked you with, or how much of a natural fit there was. Did you grow up / do you live in the area? There's an element of "liking" (Cialdini) each other which colors participants' perception of tasks. OTOH nothing like talking to perfect strangers to flex that muscle or find out you really don't have it.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a significant movement in conservative circles that "the census should literally only be a count". this could be a wedge to prevent detailed demographic data collection by the government

If you don’t count people of different races, nationalities, origin, then you can pretend there are only white people. You don’t know if there are any marginalized people gathered in say an extremely poor neighborhood, because they are all people. I see it as a way to pretend there’s just white people.

What an utterly ludicrous thing to say.

Re: Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau

#610
post #587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That papertrail mattered less than how you make it sound. France also sent people to the Germans during the occupation, and there was very little info needed. The gov wasn't caring much about due process or lengthy and accurate investigations anyway.

These arguments are bizarre. Is it easier and more convenient to round up people when you have a literal list of people, along with the attributes that someone might want to round them up based on? Of course. Is it still possible to do it without said list? Yes, of course. It is just harder. And more likely some or many will be missed, if those attributes aren’t super obvious and impossible to change. So why make it…

It is indeed a bizarre discussion: nazis round up people with or without these lists, anyone could point the finger at a neighbor and they'd be gone tomorrow.

The question becomes if it mattered whether the people sent in were actually Jewish or depraved or whatever motive was invoked. To me it doesn't matter, it is was horrible either way.

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