Earlier quoted context omitted.
Raise them, more likely. NVidia says that GPU hardware prices won't decrease until at least 2030. The world is out of fab capacity.
Meanwhile, Google...
Google also needs fabs to build their TPUs.
Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
601–610 of 819 posts
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#602Earlier quoted context omitted.
Raise them, more likely. NVidia says that GPU hardware prices won't decrease until at least 2030. The world is out of fab capacity.
> The world is out of fab capacity. Can anyone expand on this point? I read an article saying that the big AI co's datacentre spend was a bunch of lies because they can't build datacentres at anywhere near the rate they want to.
From what I understand it’s mostly TSMC and the memory providers being out of capacity over the next few years.
So it’s not even about datacenters.
Here’s a Reuters article about TSMC: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/broadcom-flags-su...
So this is actual committed contracts with all kinds of companies such as Apple, NVidia, AMD.
Also, the whole reason they can’t build data centers faster is precisely because of this.
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#603I think the logical follow up will be for Uber to lay off a bunch of people so that the remaining ones can token maxx.
To the mooooon!
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#604Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't worry, they'll just lobby to ban Chinese models instead to keep their token revenues high. > Compounding the problem, labs in China often release dual-use capable models as open-weight. Once a model is open-weight, safeguards that do exist can be removed, making the model available to any state or non-state actor to use for malicious purposes, including the cyber and CBRN misuse those safeguards were built to p…
China is the worst trading partner in the world. They banned most companies from functioning in their country for decades
So, have you ever been to China and could hadely found anything familay?
- Oh, they must have been blocked from entering the Chinese market!
But none of that is true. You could see global brands everywhere here — Tesla, Unilever, KFC, Apple, and so on.
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Or have you ever actually done cross-border trade? Or any international business collaboration? If you had, you’d definitely realize that what’s really stopping you is U.S. legislation. At least, that was the case with our former U.S. partner
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#605Plenty of comparisons here between salaries and token costs. All fair but very much assumes that salaries are rational. Why do we pay some engineers 10x as much for the same role just because they are in a different location? The WFH discussion surfaced some of that. If money is cheap, all sorts of funny things are happening. Is it worth to spend 1500 USD on AI? I don’t know. Is it worth paying engineers 300k USD instead of 30k? Honestly, I don’t know
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#606It still probably produces better results than some junior engineers in a lot of cases.
But yeah, for a company at Uber’s scale, I can see why they would want real engineering discipline around it.
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#607Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm surprised people think LLMs, a thing which mainly excels at advertising, spam and writing code is going to generate that much economic activity.
Companies whose main core competency is writing code were already making up a big chunk of the economy before AI. Also, less wealthy companies were constrained in their use of software by the inability to afford the salaries of talented programmers (and ripoff practices from software consulting companies who in theory could help). Lowering the cost of building software systems ought to unblock a good amount of econom…
If we talking about Meta, Google, etc. code is only incidental to them earning money.
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#608Earlier quoted context omitted.
One aspect Paul Kedrosky mentioned recently is the concept of „duration mismatch“. The price per token goes down over time (either because the AI vendor reduces due to competition pressure, or because customers are now incentivized to use older cheaper models). But datacenters are financed through debt, with the assumption their revenue increases over time. Quoting him: „[AI vendors are] paying for a fixed cost with…
Current AI datacenter/model development investment rate is roughly 1T/year. That's a lot. But the US economy is 33T/year. So the investment pays back (roughly) over ten years if, each year, the AI investments increase overall productivity by 0.6%, assuming the AI companies can capture half of the value of that productivity gain. > „[AI vendors are] paying for a fixed cost with a depreciating commodity“ That's just a…
A few things, I think you’re missing the point here
- most tasks do not require the latest frontier models, even if they are a magnitude more intelligent (we don’t actually know if that will be the case). Current Gemini flash is cheap, fast, and pretty capable with good guidance for most tasks
- now that companies pay API costs instead of a subscription they will be setting restrictions on token use to not have their budget explode (like Uber in this submission), that’s a strong incentive to NOT use expensive models, and limit their thinking budget
- there is competitive pressure from China and others who can offer very decent performances at a fraction of the token price
- the price of tokens for the frontier models is likely to go up, but the price to access older models is what depreciates! The overall price per token is going down now that we are in a new world where companies understand that token maxing is one of the stupidest concept ever created by humankind.
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#609Earlier quoted context omitted.
The other part of that is that while price per token may be going down, tokens per task is going up
For ~equivalent tasks/results, or because we’re expecting more or better from tasks? The real measure should be cost per ~equivalent task result, not cost per token nor tokens per task.
For better performance of ~equivalent tasks. That's what all the harness tooling people are using does: (often) increasing output quality by significantly increasing token counts.
Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing
#610Plenty of comparisons here between salaries and token costs. All fair but very much assumes that salaries are rational. Why do we pay some engineers 10x as much for the same role just because they are in a different location? The WFH discussion surfaced some of that. If money is cheap, all sorts of funny things are happening. Is it worth to spend 1500 USD on AI? I don’t know. Is it worth paying engineers 300k USD ins…
> All fair but very much assumes that salaries are rational. Why do we pay some engineers 10x as much for the same role just because they are in a different location?
Who's this "we" you're talking about? Are you a software engineer or a temporarily embarrassed billionaire? Do you think the rational thing is to pay the lowest regional salary worldwide?