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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#601
post #553
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One Vera Rubin rack costs $3-7M and eats something like 600 kw, so you’re probably looking at more like 800 racks for that 500 MW DC. $100k launch costs per rack doesn’t seem too terrible if that’s what it works out to. I’m sure there’s a mountain of solar panels that aren’t included, though? And it’s not that simple, building out power generation is very constrained, the interconnection queue is years long in many p…

I don't understand how years spent building an orbital DC is better than years spent permitting. I guess maybe they expect to somehow be able to build these faster? (How?) Anyway, is it technically possible? Yes. My suspicion is it's at best a wash vs building on the ground. Applying a similar price premium & similar engineering resources to a ground-based system is likely to deliver much more predictable results. Te…

Yeah, true, they have gotten pretty good at lobbying. Hoping they can beat the utility lobbies to really open up renewable energy development.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's mainly a limitation of the beam steering: terminals that are close together need to be seperated in bandwidth so that they don't intefere with each other, and there's only so much bandwidth available. Tighter beam steering could help but that is something that tends to bump up against physical limitations. (and it's an area where it would need orders of magnitude improvements to address the density of ci…

Really interesting insight, thanks! In the past I've worked on consensus based protocols like the ones used in modern cellular systems; basically edge devices register with a controller system that then coordinates time slots for distribution/use of bandwidth for the limited spectrum. Adds a lot of complexity and requires highly accurate time synchronization mechanisms to have any hope of working, but they certainly…

That's another way to divide up the total amount of available bandwidth (common on any shared medium and they are almost certainly already doing this), but it doesn't increase the amount of available bandwidth in a given area.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that founders still own 50% of the shares doesn't mean that they didn't sold some of ones they had. Also Snap gives very generous stock options to their C-team, meaning that they can sell overtime while keeping their large stash.

In your previous post, you complained > so they harvest the vslue and spit out the company late in the value cycle. So SNAP executives IPO’d at $27B, and over the next 4 years, the market cap increased to $131B, which anyone in the public could have benefited from. Yet now you are saying SNAP execs are wrong for selling their equity over time? It doesn’t seem like there is any winning here for SNAP’s executives, even…

You are referring to a different OP. And market cap increases is not an excuse to dilute shareholders to hell.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#604

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

This comment reads like an S-1 pitch deck and almost every claim is false or misleading. The $16B is not profit its revenue , and I strongly suggest to learn the difference before investing. The $8B figure is EBITDA, also known as, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, AND amortization. For a company running around 9500 LEO satellites with a less than 5 year lifespan, depreciation is the business. Their FCC…

Smartphones can now connect directly to some LEO satellite services. Apple’s iPhone satellite features work on iPhone 14 and later. It makes me wonder if the evolution of this capability will eventually make Starlink a telecom without the traditional towers.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#605

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment reads like an S-1 pitch deck and almost every claim is false or misleading. The $16B is not profit its revenue , and I strongly suggest to learn the difference before investing. The $8B figure is EBITDA, also known as, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, AND amortization. For a company running around 9500 LEO satellites with a less than 5 year lifespan, depreciation is the business. Their FCC…

Where the heck is the mild-mannered retail investor going to go if they bork up all the indices?

Borking up the indices has been inevitable since index investing rose. Think of index investors like a bunch of entirely undefended prey surrounded by predators. If we had a working SEC somebody might do something, but we don't.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really interesting insight, thanks! In the past I've worked on consensus based protocols like the ones used in modern cellular systems; basically edge devices register with a controller system that then coordinates time slots for distribution/use of bandwidth for the limited spectrum. Adds a lot of complexity and requires highly accurate time synchronization mechanisms to have any hope of working, but they certainly…

That's another way to divide up the total amount of available bandwidth (common on any shared medium and they are almost certainly already doing this), but it doesn't increase the amount of available bandwidth in a given area.

You mentioned beam contention as the key problem, which consensus networks solve at the cost of latency at the high end. As for bandwidth, in theory, you get the full network speed when it's "your turn", so that looks somewhat "bursty" when cycle lengths are too high from high demand. Naturally it evens out at human perception timescales appearing as lower bandwidth though. And obviously there's a saturation point where it no longer makes sense to continue slicing the pie and more complex mitigation strategies like exp back off, priority queuing, varying cycle lengths, etc need to be added into the mix.

To decrease that latency in high density areas like cities they'd need to reach for something like terrestrial microwave relays to add more connection points from adjacent (in horizon) "freer skies"

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#607

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

The difference between an Arianne and SpaceX launch is 10%, not 10x.

Difference in cost per launch, cost per mass, or payload capacity?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hah. I didn't expect to get downvoted this much. I'm not trying to rewrite history either, but this makes me wonder how deeply the Google lore really affected some people. I'm in my late 30s, so fair enough. I was there, but not really "there" to see what happened. My understanding and memory was that there was good word-of-mouth in the 90s because it was marginally better. By around 2000, the media was strongly push…

I'm older, and was there. The word of mouth was real. I was working in tech at the time, and had Google recommended to me by a mate. I tried it, and it rocked. This would be about 1996, I guess, somewhen around then. Every techie converted to Google, and we converted our friends and family. Sure they got media coverage, but remember at that time journos had very little clue about tech and relied on their techie frien…

Interestingly enough, Envirolink's web search engine had bibliometric search ranking in 1996. It only searched a small subset of the web - mostly around environment advocacy.

I built in 1996 as an internship, it all ran as some perl scripts, and I had no idea what I was doing, of course, I was 17. I just thought it was clever to use the links between pages as a signal to the search engine. I'd never heard of citation analysis.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#609
post #604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment reads like an S-1 pitch deck and almost every claim is false or misleading. The $16B is not profit its revenue , and I strongly suggest to learn the difference before investing. The $8B figure is EBITDA, also known as, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, AND amortization. For a company running around 9500 LEO satellites with a less than 5 year lifespan, depreciation is the business. Their FCC…

Smartphones can now connect directly to some LEO satellite services. Apple’s iPhone satellite features work on iPhone 14 and later. It makes me wonder if the evolution of this capability will eventually make Starlink a telecom without the traditional towers.

It won't because of congestion. Terrestrial wireless infrastructure can be engineered for any level of user density. The TAM for space based wireless is limited to people who are out of range of terrestrial wireless, and have a high enough value need to connect.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#610

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where the heck is the mild-mannered retail investor going to go if they bork up all the indices?

Borking up the indices has been inevitable since index investing rose. Think of index investors like a bunch of entirely undefended prey surrounded by predators. If we had a working SEC somebody might do something, but we don't.

Using your metaphor, this rule change represents something more along the lines of an invasive predator, new disease or parasite.

I'll stop there, because Musk is much-loved by the internet, but to pull on this string of systemic risk, let me see if I can walk through my thoughts here:

Nasdaq Inc. (the exchange operator) and Nasdaq-100 (the index) are not independent entities with separate interests. Nasdaq owns and operates the index. A SpaceX listing would be a major win for Nasdaq, reinforcing its dominance in IPOs and billions in licensing fees - Invesco QQQ Trust alone has over $300 billion. Every basis point of licensing fee on that is enormous static income. When SpaceX says "change the rules for me or I list on NYSE," that's a threat to both the exchange listing fees and the downstream index licensing revenue.

So the competition here is between index operators (SP500 is actively managed by an actual steering group, so rules changes aren't as big a whoop) for who can net the biggest pool of new shares so that their passive income on index license fees can get maximally farmed. The actual thing the money comes from - retail index investors - don't figure in this equation at all. It's a systemic risk of replacing actively managed funds with consumer 401k products, risk that requires active legislation and law enforcement for there to even be a fair marketplace; markets require regulations, after all[1].

If you're thinking this sounds a little like the competition between the ratings agencies circa 2008 to see who can award the most AAA ratings, you're in the right ballpark. It wouldn't even be possible if SpaceX wasn't onboarding basically every big player in this travesty: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup. In fact, I suspect that this cabal of villains are the ones testing the x{N} float idea that has everyone up in arms - they see a golden plan here to smash the window and hit the road before the sirens go off.

And that's the problem with invasives. They don't participate in the system at hand; they monkey with the fundamentals. Compete with other plants? Nah, I poison all the soil where I grow. Not enough substrate? Kill all the vertebrates with symbiont viruses so the world turns into Fungusland. And even if the retail investor wins, that means a massive flight from NASDAQ, which even I have been double checking in my tiny little pool of casino winnings. But triggering a flight from every index everywhere? That would not be bright. But, well, that's the other thing about invasives, right? They're not long term thinkers.

[1] I suppose this has become a political point too, hasn't it? Well, ride with me for a bit.

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