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Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

reuters.com

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Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#601

Post by epistasis »

mym1990 wrote: post #571
overfeed wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Its baffling that you think the collapse of the USD would have no negative ramifications on the rest of the world. Empires rise and fall, pax Americana was not the world's first hegemony. The end of the British Empire is within living memory - while they sowed seeds of instability in a handful of former colonies that still flare up today, the rest of the world is fine. Britain, on the other hand, has had to enter a…

If you think the US is going to decline slowly, fade into history and not try to go out with a bang, I guess that is certainly one world view!

What do you think the US is going to do for that bang? How could a bang ever bring the wealth and peace that its prior friendship with allies brought?

The US doesn't have the cards to play, because the current US Government doesn't even understand where the wealth has come from. That US Government has risen to power by tricking the public into thinking that the very things that make the US wealthy and powerful are actually a scam making them poorer.

The current US Government has already broken the trust that makes the US strong. The repercussions will take years to become fully visible, and without immediate course correction those future repercussions will get far far worse.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#602

Post by bad_haircut72 »

Retric wrote: post #343
ptero wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It did not go into a hyperinflation after the WW2, when the US debt load as a share of GDP was even higher than today; and deflated in the same way US is likely to do it now (bond rates forced way below inflation with yield control). I am not saying that the process will be pleasant for the US or its citizens. But it is not without precedent and is extremely unlikely to cause hyperinflation. My 2c.

The post WWII economic boom outgrew the debt thus dramatically decreased the debt to GDP ratio. The US is unlikely to find itself the only industrialized nation without massively damaged infrastructure again anytime soon.

Actually I think this is their plan... :(

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#603

Post by bad_haircut72 »

jacquesm wrote: post #596
anigbrowl wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-plays-down-consequenc... Now, Trump is an opportunist and in the psat his talk of default has been a way to throw rhetorical stones at his political opponents and keep himself in the news while he was out of office. Back in office, he has sought to project some kind of commitment to fiscal responsibility and financial stability. But let's be real here, he's making threats agains…

I'm seeing it all and I still can't believe it. The most unbelievable to me is that the Senate and Congress seem to have no red lines at all.

The senate has abdicated the power to declare war, like what else is left in terms of real power? There is no seperation of powers any more, its everything the founders feared coming true

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#604

Post by surgical_fire »

BunsanSpace wrote: post #460
StephenHerlihyy wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The opposition to American hegemony shifted from Europe (ie the USSR) to Asia (ie China). To that end, NATO lacks the capacity to meaningfully impact a conflict in the Pacific. The EU simply does not have the means to project power in that way nor do they have the ability to meaningfully implement economic policies that would effectively reduce Chinese growth. Trump is an asshole, but the strategy hasn’t really chang…

> The truth is though that Europe is dead weight. Their economy is anemic, their still too fragmented militarily What an incredibly ignorant statement. Europe's economy in real terms is doing fine, their productivity is growing. The US's economy only looks good on paper, but outside of the AI bubble, companies aren't growing wages are stagnant with inflation. Europe is also on the verge of federalization. But you hav…

> Europe is also on the verge of federalization.

Hopefully. It needs to do something about veto powers and the fact that Orban exists.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#605

Post by MikeNotThePope »

qgin wrote: post #41

So much of the way the United States works is having a nearly limitless source of borrowing at low rates in the form of selling treasury bonds. The further we get away from that being true, the more precarious things become.

There will always be a market if the interest rates are high enough. But wanting to lower interest rates and introducing political instability seems like a bad combo.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#606

Post by throw0101c »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #222
throw0101a wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE). If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neithe…

To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing

The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division:

* https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/

whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program:

* https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/

so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#607

Post by staplers »

mym1990 wrote: post #564
7speter wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The negative ramifications seem to be better than being invaded by the US or having regional entities invaded by the US, and the ensuing instability as a result. If its going to be like this the rest of the world might as well cut its losses

You seem to have a very limited view of the world if you think the US doesn't have fans of totalitarian rule and that the "rest of the world" is exclusively against US global strategy. I am going to guess that you actually have no idea what the negative ramifications of the collapse of a currency that underpins the foundations of our world are, because it is something that is near impossible to predict. I agree that…

  the US will somehow fall in a vacuum and everyone else will live happily ever after is laughable.
If enough countries collectively decide to not export to the US, it's game over. See Cuba as an example.

Not everything is a movie with a final battle. Alternatives are found and adopted all the time without violent strife.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#608

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

btbuildem wrote: post #290
whimsicalism wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious when people make comments like this, do they actually live in the US and believe this or has the media environment gotten so bad in Europe+ that people have no clue what’s real or not?

We don't live in the meth lab downstairs, we're in the apartment above it. It's been wild in the past couple of decades, but lately you guys have started taking pot shots at the ceiling, so yeah, we're watching.

I think you're missing the criticism, which is not just that an armed civil war is extremely unlikely even given everything happening in the US, if it did happen, it would not splinter the US regionally.

The divide here is urban vs rural. There's no way to turn that into a set of successor regions.

If armed conflict does happen, it'll be much more amorphous, terrifying, and random, concentrated in the cities, and resemble things like the Tulsa massacre at a larger scale.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#609

Post by wrs »

outside1234 wrote: post #598
testing22321 wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Defaulting on the debt would be a great “emergency” that requires elections to be cancelled…

Thankfully elections are more or less impossible to cancel since they are scheduled by the states

Including the states that have replaced their election officials with Trump loyalists?

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#610

Post by renjimen »

epolanski wrote: post #109

I personally have dumped every single US security I held in the last 2 years, US bonds have been the latest to go in the last week. Mind you I'm a small investor (my portfolio is 100k-ish euros). I'm still exposed to US securities through ETFs though, as I have 3 different ones holding US companies, but that I ain't gonna sell them. But for new capital I may as well provide it to others.

I'm not dumping US, but since Trump got back into power, all new investment goes into ex-US funds to help balance what was previously a portfolio over-reliant on US stocks. I'm based in Canada.
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