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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#601
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are three takes that I think are not depressing: * Being excited to be able to write the pieces of code they want, and not others. When you sit down to write code, you do not do everything from scratch, you lean on libraries, compilers, etc. Take the most annoying boilerplate bit of code you have to write now - would you be happy if a new language/framework popped up that eliminated it? * Being excited to be ab…

Those are all good outcomes, up to a point. But if this stuff works TOO well, most or maybe all of us will have to start looking at other career options. Whatever autonomy you think you have in deciding what the AI does, that can ultimately be trained as well, and it will be the more people use it. I personally don't like it when others who don't know how to code are able to get results using AI. I spent many years o…

I get the feeling, but I can't help but also say it sounds like how I imagine professional portrait artists felt about the photograph. Or scribes about audio recordings. Or any other occupation that similarly got more or less replaced by a technological advance.

Those jobs still exist, but by large are either very niche or work using that tech in some way.

It is not wrong to feel down about the risk of so much time, training, etc rapidly losing value. But it also isn't wrong that change isn't bad, and sometimes that includes adjusting how we use our skills and/or developing new ones. Nobody gets to be elite forever, they will be replaced and become common or unneeded eventually. So it's probably more helpful for yourself and those that may want to rely on you to be forward-thinking rather than complaining. Doesn't mean you have to become pro-AI, but may be helpful to be pragmatic and work where it can't.

As to work supply... I figure that will always be a problem as long as money is the main point of work. If people could just work where they specialize without so much concern for issues like not starving, maybe it would be a different. I dunno.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense, but the world with AI slop everywhere isn't everyone's utopia.

Building your own utopia is now ever more achievable than I think any other time in human history. Perhaps my examples aren't as stellar as what's possible to achieve. But I only use those as simple examples, there are far better, made by many others whom don't comment on this forum.

> Building your own utopia is now ever more achievable than I think any other time in human history.

The problem I have with this type of perspective is that it's so myopic you don't seem to understand this is not even remotely anything I'd consider a "utopia". Some vibe-coded AI apps do not solve for that IMO. If that's all it takes for you then I say: enjoy.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#603
An economist friend recently said. If it bursts, it's definitely a bubble. If it does not burst, then it's not a bubble.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#605

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

I got mentally hit hard by the 2nd push of vibe coding (gemini-cli and similar) for reasons you mention. I'd add a that:

- inverse career growth structure and black hole effect

usually, an industry has a number of skills to hone, you start with simple ones, and as you go you may learn more to do harder, and earn more. the more you love, the more you learn, the better for you. this is evaporating.. and worse, the people who don't love it, get to run you over. you're now competing in the 'llm orchestration game' where the most mentally intense task is to chat with the cli and check its output.

llms may also be all encompassing, even if I adapt and accept that well software engineering is done for, i don't even foresee what i should learn now.. my brain thinking power is not that great, and the places where llms can't beat human are probably post-graduate intelligence and i can't compete much here either.

how i see it it's a middle layer collapse

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