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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#601

Post by DangitBobby »

palmotea wrote: post #463
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

> And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather from perspective of some kind of economic determinism? Have you ever thought that you would be compared to a gasoline engine and everyone would discuss this juxtaposition from purely economic perspective? One of the many terrible things about software engineers their the tendency to think and speak as if they were some kind o…

I always thought intentionally applying an emotional distance was a strategy to help us see what's really happening, since allowing emotions to creep in causes us reach conclusions we want (motivated reasoning) instead of conclusions that reflect reality. I find it a valuable way to think. Then there's always the fact that the people who control the world have no emotional attachment to you either. They see you as something closer to a horse than their kin. I imagine a healthy dose of self-dehumanization actually helps us understand the current trajectory of our future. And people tend to vastly overvalue our "humanity" anyway. I'm guessing the ones that displaced horses didn't give much of a fuck about what happened to horses.

I wish I knew what you were so I could say "one of the many terrible things about __" about you. Anyway, I think you have an unhealthy emotional attachment to your emotions.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#602

Post by 9rx »

vlovich123 wrote: post #572
9rx wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The amount of people it takes to maintain a server rack is minimal and low cost labor. So what you're saying is that it requires human oversight. Got it. Glad you finally caught up to where the rest of us were many comments ago. But why did it take so long? Inquiring minds want to know.

Once again missing the forest for the trees about what the article is about. But it’s ok - reading comprehension isn’t for everybody.

The... article? There is nothing in this subthread about an article. It is an extension on what was asserted in a segment of an earlier comment.

At least the source of your confusion is now clear. I suggest you stop doing that stupid HN thing where you read individual comments in complete isolation. This isn't programming where an individual pure function is able to hold significance all on its own. Context setup throughout the thread evolution is necessary to take in. But you do you. We enjoy the hilarity found in watching the stumbling and grasping, so it's all good either way.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#603

Post by DangitBobby »

Herring wrote: post #407
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

American culture actively punishes compassion, then gaslights you about it. https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/te... Look at all the professions on the bottom right: Teachers, therapists, clergy, social workers, etc. It’s not a coincidence that cruel people take top positions.

Money isn't the only thing a job provides. Those are all professions that provide a sense of meaning, so monetary compensation doesn't need to be as high to attract and keep people.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#604

Post by DangitBobby »

andai wrote: post #369
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

Is it good when number of human go up? Is bad when go down?

That depends on what you think jobs and the economy are for, generally.

If you think the purpose of the economy is for the economy to be good then it doesn't matter. If you think it exists to serve humanity then... You really wouldn't need to ask the question, I imagine.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#605

Post by DangitBobby »

goatlover wrote: post #145
ghssds wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are animals.

When horses develop technology and create all sorts of jobs for themselves, this will be a good metaphor.

The average person doesn't develop technology or create jobs for themselves.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#606

Post by twodave »

bdangubic wrote: post #546
twodave wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re assuming a lot about me that isn’t true, but let’s just say we can’t really know, can we? And I think it’s a bit reductionist to attribute the current job market to LLMs. The market started to suck long before LLMs became useful.

my apologies, I did not mean you as YOU, just general “you”… and while we can’t know we can also… kind of know or look at data etc… IntuitionLabs, “AI’s Impact on Graduate Jobs: A 2025 Data Analysis” (2025) - https://intuitionlabs.ai/pdfs/ai-s-impact-on-graduate-jobs-a... Indeed Hiring Lab, “AI at Work Report 2025: How GenAI is Rewiring the DNA of Jobs” (September 2025) - https://www.hiringlab.org/wp-content/uploads/…

Edit: thanks for the gracious reply. I was probably overly defensive myself.

I didn’t read all of that, but what I gathered is that it’s relying on survey response about future expectation? And probably being conflated a bit with the end of ZIRP and the effect that had on the market in general. I think it’s rather more likely that tech companies were allowed to play with funny money for a while, driving up demand, and suddenly when we are on a rebound from that people want to point to AI as a scapegoat to avoid saying, “Yeah we over hired while it was advantageous and now we are cutting back to prior levels.” I’ve seen first hand what happens to tech businesses that try to go “all in on AI” and it isn’t a happy story for the company anymore than the employees.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#607

Post by dredmorbius »

haritha-j wrote: post #589
dredmorbius wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI seems capable of doing lots of things, particularly in comparison to domain-specific programming or even domain-specific AI. Your critique doesn't seem so powerful as you might suppose.

Capable yes, but human equivalence comes at different times, which means AI human equivalnce to humans in general will be staggered, and not a sudden cliff as the author claims. But in all fairness I don't imagine this to be a powerful critique, I wouldn't be at all shocked if I'm wrong.

The point of the article as I see it is that incremental improvements lead to sudden changes, when equivalence is reached in a specific domain.

It's a bit like rising water in a lake or river. You're fine, until you aren't, though the specific "aren't" moment will depend on your elevation relative to the body of water, of the height of any protections (levees, dams, storm walls), and any mitigating mechanisms (e.g., flood control pumps).

Up until the point that your defences are overtopped, your feet are dry. Once overtopped, you're wet.

Same with AGI (again, presuming that the present LLM/GD approach continues to provide returns): a slow but gradual increase in capability can subsume more and more human intellectual / cognitive tasks, and for each individual task, that moment is fairly likely to be rather sudden.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#608

Post by vidarh »

rerdavies wrote: post #580
vidarh wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the responses are often distilled down from the same garbage Google serves up, but presented as the opinion of Claude, whom she increasingly trusts. I use Claude a lot . I have the most expensive Claude Max subscription both for my own consultancy and at client sites, separately. I'm increasingly close to an AI maximalist on many issues, so I'm not at all against extensive use of these models. But it's not qu…

Google search results: a dozen sponsored links; a dozen links to videos (which I never use -- I'd rather read than watch); six or seven pages with gamed SEOs; if you're lucky, what you actually want is far down near the end of the first page, or perhaps at the top of the second page; the other 700 pages of links are ... whatever. Repeat for our five times with variously tweaked queries, hoping that what you actually…

> Claude: "Provide me links to Which, as I pointed out, is not the point, as you're advocating exactly the kind of prompting I said wouldn't be a problem. It's not how she uses it.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#609

Post by estimator7292 »

UncleMeat wrote: post #388
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I have been completely shocked by the number of people in the tech industry who seem to genuinely place no value on humanity and so many of its outputs. I see it in the writing of leaders within VC firms and AI companies but I also see it in ordinary conversations on the caltrain or in coffee shops. Friendship, love, sex, art, even faith and childrearing are opportunities for substitution with AI. Ask an AI to create…

That's what unfettered capitalism gets you
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