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IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

businessinsider.com

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Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#601

Post by eschaton »

delaminator wrote: post #543
blablabla123 wrote: post #533

Despite the flashy title that's the first "sober" analysis from a CEO I read about the technology. While not even really news, it's also worth mentioning that the energy requirements are impossible to fulfill Also now using ChatGPT intensely since months for all kinds of tasks and having tried Claude etc. None of this is on par with a human. The code snippets are straight out of Stackoverflow...

Your assessment of Claude simply isn’t true. Or Stackoverflow is really good. I’m producing multiple projects per week that are weeks of work each.

I produce a lot of shit every week too, but I don’t brag about my digestive system on “Hacker” “News.”

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#602

Post by meekaaku »

helsinkiandrew wrote: post #514
stevenjgarner wrote: post #240

"It is 1958. IBM passes up the chance to buy a young, fledgling company that has invented a new technology called xerography. Two years later, Xerox is born, and IBM has been kicking themselves ever since. It is ten years later, the late '60s. Digital Equipment DEC and others invent the minicomputer. IBM dismisses the minicomputer as too small to do serious computing and, therefore, unimportant to their business. DEC…

> IBM has not exactly had a stellar record at identifying the future. IBM invented/developed/introduced magnetic stripe cards, UPC Barcodes, the modern ATM, Hard drives, floppies, DRAM, SQL, the 360 Family of Mainframes, the PC, Apollo guidance computers, Deep Blue. IBM created a far share of the future we're living in. I'm no fan of much of what IBM is doing at the moment but it could be argued that its consultancy/…

IBM is/was good at inventing a lot of tech.

It may not be good at recognizing other good tech invented or paradigm changes by others

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#603

Post by jasonwatkinspdx »

stevenjgarner wrote: post #240

"It is 1958. IBM passes up the chance to buy a young, fledgling company that has invented a new technology called xerography. Two years later, Xerox is born, and IBM has been kicking themselves ever since. It is ten years later, the late '60s. Digital Equipment DEC and others invent the minicomputer. IBM dismisses the minicomputer as too small to do serious computing and, therefore, unimportant to their business. DEC…

You could try addressing the actual topic of discussion vs this inflammatory and lazy "dunk" format that frankly, doesn't reflect favorably on you.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#604

Post by eschaton »

jstummbillig wrote: post #564
written-beyond wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just as much of an avid llm code generator fan as you may be but I do wonder about the practicality of spending time making projects anymore. Why build them if other can just generate them too, where is the value of making so many projects? If the value is in who can sell it the best to people who can't generate it, isn't it just a matter of time before someone else will generate one and they may become better th…

The value is that we need a lot more software and now, because building software has gotten so much less time consuming, you can sell software to people that could/would not have paid for it previously at a different price point.

We don’t need more software, we need the right software implemented better. That’s not something LLMs can possibly give us because they’re fucking pachinko machines.

Here’s a hint: Nobody should ever write a CRUD app, because nobody should ever have to write a CRUD app; that’s something that can be generated fully and deterministically (i.e. by a set of locally-executable heuristics, not a goddamn ocean-boiling LLM) from a sufficiently detailed model of the data involved.

In the 1970s you could wire up an OS-level forms library to your database schema and then serve literally thousands of users from a system less powerful than the CPU in modern peripheral or storage controller. And in less RAM too.

People need to take a look at what was done before in order to truly have a proper degree of shame about how things are being done now.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#605

Post by meekaaku »

skissane wrote: post #259
stevenjgarner wrote: post #240

"It is 1958. IBM passes up the chance to buy a young, fledgling company that has invented a new technology called xerography. Two years later, Xerox is born, and IBM has been kicking themselves ever since. It is ten years later, the late '60s. Digital Equipment DEC and others invent the minicomputer. IBM dismisses the minicomputer as too small to do serious computing and, therefore, unimportant to their business. DEC…

> In 1977, Apple, a young fledgling company on the West Coast, invents the Apple II, the first personal computer as we know it today. IBM dismisses the personal computer as too small to do serious computing and unimportant to their business. IBM released the 5100 in September 1975 [0] which was essentially a personal computer in feature set. The biggest problem with it was the price tag - the entry model cost US$8975…

And outsourcing the operating system to Microsoft, because they didnt consider it that important.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#606

Post by elktown »

teodosin wrote: post #547
elktown wrote: post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“like it's some sort of established fact” -> “My understanding”?! a.k.a pure speculation. Some of you AI fans really need to read your posts out loud before posting them.

You misread the literal first snippet you quoted. There's no contradiction in what you replied to.

No?

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#607

Post by bubbi »

stevenjgarner wrote: post #240

"It is 1958. IBM passes up the chance to buy a young, fledgling company that has invented a new technology called xerography. Two years later, Xerox is born, and IBM has been kicking themselves ever since. It is ten years later, the late '60s. Digital Equipment DEC and others invent the minicomputer. IBM dismisses the minicomputer as too small to do serious computing and, therefore, unimportant to their business. DEC…

[dead]

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#608

Post by jacquesm »

simianwords wrote: post #593
jacquesm wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I didn't realize that was a rhetorical question.

it is not rhetorical. you have not provided a mechanism through which Sam can make money out of this whereas I'm describing ways in which this bubble popping is not something he would prefer.

Your lack of understanding can not be remedied with information.

You have a habit of 'just asking questions' when in fact you are trying to steer the conversation in the direction of the conclusion that you prefer. This is not productive. If you have something to say then you can just say it without the question marks. That way people know that you are making a statement instead of pretending to be asking a question.

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#609

Post by wongarsu »

logifail wrote: post #495
duped wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How different is this from rental car companies changing over their fleets? I don't know, this is a genuine question. The cars cost 3-4x as much and last about 2x as far as I know, and the secondary market is still alive.

> How different is this from rental car companies changing over their fleets? New generations of GPUs leapfrog in efficiency (performance per watt) and vehicles don't? Cars don't get exponentially better every 2–3 years, meaning the second-hand market is alive and well. Some of us are quite happy driving older cars (two parked outside our home right now, both well over 100,000km driven). If you have a datacentre with…

The traditional framing would be cost per flop. At some point your total costs per flop over the next 5 years will be lower if you throw out the old hardware and replace it with newer more efficient models. With traditional servers that's typically after 3-5 years, with GPUs 2-3 years sounds about right

The major reason companies keep their old GPUs around much longer with now are the supply constraints

Re: IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off

#610

Post by EagnaIonat »

noobermin wrote: post #568
EagnaIonat wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read the actual article. He is pointing out that the current costs to create the data centres means you will never be able to make a profit to cover those costs. $800 Billion just to cover the interest. OpenAI is already haemorrhaging money and the space data centres has already been debunked. There is even a recent paper that points out that LLMs will never become AGI. The article also finishes out with some other…

$800B, to be clear is the claim, not $80B.

Clearly I need to read slower. Thanks. :)
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