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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

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601–610 of 693 posts

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Impressive candidates are applying to jobs that pay somewhat reasonably, even if it's below what they expect. If candidates who are desperate are still completely skipping over a company, that says something about that company.

I am also hiring, in Europe with very good work/life balance but modest salaries and like the parent I'm also not that impressed with candidates, so to me the other explanation is that candidates have a wildly incorrect estimation of what is a somewhat reasonable pay in 2025. The position with FAANG like salaries have reduced drastically. Companies paying 6 figures just to have the privilege to have an entry level de…

I don't know what the market is like in the EU. I can just tell you North America is really bad with a deluge of talent. And sadly, many can't really live off of an EU salary.

breaking six figures in California isn't that impressive unless you are literally single and out of college. But that quickly gets eaten up when rent is 2k+/month and you have school loans to pay off. When you're not paying nearly six figures for college and have your taxes built into most of your day to day life, you don't need six figures.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ones who own the robots will be doing the consumption. Of course, this all implies that the rest of us will just sit and starve quietly. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

No, we need entertainment, potato chips, some drugs and the mandated degree of access to contraceptives. I'm sure OpenAI can calculate the optimal levels of each.

And the current reaction is to make entertainment and potato chips more expensive, and to ban contraceptives and drugs.

The only saving grace of this administration's cruelty is its stupidity. It wants to rule like Rome over slaves, but didn't learn how the rulers kept the populace from uprising and rebelling.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#603
post #594
post #588

730,000 H-1B holders within the U.S. Can we just cancel this program please?

Why do you want to cancel French immersion teachers? https://h1bdata.info/index.php?em=&job=french+language+immer... Or nurses? https://h1bdata.info/index.php?em=&job=registered+nurse&city... The problem isn't H-1B. It's H-1B dependent employers gaming the system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B-dependent_employer https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/62c-h1b-depende...

The gaming is the problem. I don't trust this admin to fix the loopholes.

That said, I have no clue why anyone in the US is struggling to find nurses unless they expect RN's to be paid minimum wage or be caged down to fractional work. That just doesn't fly.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#604

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In which part of the world are you seeing this? In the bay area?

SF and NY

Seems like those are the only hubs kind of hiring. The few recruiter messages I get these day seem to be from there (despite saying I'm not inerested in re-locating).

And even those are way down. Los Angles simply seems dead from my experience the last 2 years.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#605

996 - it's a global marketplace of talent and very few in America are willing to work 996. If you are, you either are the founder type or young and unshackled.

you are 100% right. I know people don't want to hear this . . . but at my mega large corp, we recently laid off hundreds people who basically didn't do this.

>we recently laid off hundreds people who basically didn't do this.

Did you give them a choice or simply say "we've moving most operations to China?"

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#606
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your math seems way off? NDXT went from ~2300 in 2015 to ~12500 in 2025. That's ~5.5x return. So even if you had your whole 1M saving in 2015, you'd only have 5.5M now. No idea how you get nearly 3x that? And it's way worse if you take the actual scenario which is 100k added every year instead of starting with the 1M. S&P500 is worse yet, at about 3.5x total return if you had the whole million at the start.

Really appreciate your comment, literally the only comment in this long sub-thread that picked up on the nonsensical numbers fooker put out. Realistically fooker's investment strategy into NDXT of 100k over 10 years would have produced around $2.5M depending on exact timing in the year and partitioning of that 100k. Way less than $15M nonsense. Also would have required extreme conviction alike the crypto types and co…

Counting on 10% returns long term is way to aggressive especially when you have to consider sequence of returns risks during withdrawals. Even 5% is not conservative enough while you are in the withdrawal phase.

If I had $5 million of investments outside of my home, would I work? Maybe? My job is far from stressful, I work from home, I “retired” my wife over 5 years ago when she was 44 eight years into our marriage so she could pursue her passions and we could travel a lot.

All of my friends still work so what could I possibly do with my free time that I don’t do now? The only restrictions that not working would lift is that we could more easily spend an extended amount of time outside of US time zones.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the reality is that people usually spend more and save less than they could. You can't save your way out of rent being 70, 80+% of your paycheck. For my area, minimum wage is $18 and your best hope for rent is sharing a $3k 2 bedroom apartment. quick napkin math suggests $2400 take home pay and ~$1800 eaten up between the rent split, utilities, gas, and the most basic rice and beans diet of "groceries". Not even inc…

Renters, make sure you vote. NIMBY really hurts you when the house owners who vote make it impossible for you to get affordable rent. Rental properties get higher property taxes: rent goes up, or the quality of the house goes down. When cheap apartments cannot legally be built: there are no cheap apartments.

Some of the YIMBY stuff is coming in the form of stricter environment regulations and even union labor rules and high minimum wage. Looking at you, NYC, where building 99 unit buildings and no more is the norm because otherwise the wage becomes $40/hr. It's called 485-x.

There's no escape in the US from the problem. It's either California with weird complicated property tax laws that make no one sell, Texas with unlimited and disgusting urban sprawl, Florida with shoddy construction, or NYC with big headaches tied to strict building incentives for tax breaks.

The answer could be ugly - less regulation, but now you're going red and not blue, which is very much the opposite attitude that many pro urbanization folks tend to be.

I'm not sure, other than I think the issue is that it's not Not Enough Building. It's that we allow investors to buy everything up. In NYC this year, 40 percent of condo transactions were without financing contingency. Explain that one.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#608
post #599
post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you want to cancel French immersion teachers? https://h1bdata.info/index.php?em=&job=french+language+immer... Or nurses? https://h1bdata.info/index.php?em=&job=registered+nurse&city... The problem isn't H-1B. It's H-1B dependent employers gaming the system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B-dependent_employer https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/fact-sheets/62c-h1b-depende...

Wage suppression

Could you elaborate on how wages of native French speaking language teachers are being suppressed? Or that nurses in North Dakota are not getting jobs because the hospital is going through the process of hiring a qualified nurse under the H-1B program?

I'm not saying that the teachers or nurses are not underpaid - they should be paid more, but the ability for the organization to pay them more is often constrained by other factors (teacher salaries for public schools, medicare reimbursement rates for hospitals).

Saying "no, we shouldn't hire them" doesn't mean that a qualified American teacher will show up or new nurses will go to Fargo to get a job. Rather, foreign language programs in schools will be discontinued and hospitals in rural areas will close (being unable to meet the required nurse to patient ratios).

There are problems with the system. People on HN often forget that there are a lot of other professions outside of technology that make use of the H-1B when there is a genuine need.

Unfortunately technology - and especially technology consultancies - have flooded the application process for the H-1B visas to the point where H-1B has become synonymous with Indian programmer working at a WITCH company.

> Public Law 114–113, part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016, imposed a fee of $4,000 on H-1B petitions [edit: for H-1B dependent employers] and $4,500 on L-1A and L-1B petitions. The additional H-1B fees would apply to all petitions postmarked on or after December 18, 2015, and until September 30, 2025.

This apparently has expired. The proclamation "Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers" is of dubious footing.

You know what would have been good with the budget bill (the previous Consolidated Appropriations Act was a budget bill signed by Obama)? Quadrupling the application fee for H-1B dependent employers and hiring auditors to make sure that the applicants are properly qualified, that there is a position open (not just a position on the bench at a consultancy) for the applicant to fill, that the position to be filled was attempted to be filled by a and that the employer is making full use of their existing employees (e.g. no one on the bench).

This is something that is (was) there and can be regulated and audited and catch the problematic employers - not French teachers and nurses.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#609
post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have hella money.

I continue a tech career making 200k+ a year and you try to sell me making 100k or less probably for the next 20 years as a win? Nah I love money to much and hella money is like 10m+ where I would chose something that in the next decades would make me so much less. Also no trajectory in career path. I'm happy it works for you but I wouldn't like that. On the other hand I have my big corpo wageslave job and my little…

I’m on track to retire at 45. I don’t have to do a job I hate until then.

I walk around all the time anyway, to any destination within the city. I have a car and still do this.

To each their own.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#610

My experience is companies are hiring CS grads for helpdesk, and maybe eventually promoting them to what they went to school for. I'm a self-taught senior. At my current company have only ever been a developer, but everyone I work with started as help desk and got moved to development later. I know this is anecdotal, but they all have CS degrees. I think people still underestimate the glut in inexperienced CS grads w…

I learned recently our company has an informal policy to discourage hiring fresh grads, which would explain why I haven't seen any hires at the bottom of our grading scale. I'm one step above (though arguably I could be two up by experience, I misplayed my negotiations), but I kinda feel like I'm dangling off the edge.
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