Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits • Hacker News Board

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#601

Post by rhetocj23 » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:02 PM UTC

james_oofou wrote: post #520

JCM9 wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear when I said “finance folks” I wasn’t really referring to VCs. I’m talking more family office types that manage big pools of money that you don’t know about. The super wealthy class that has literally has more money than the King but would be horrified if you knew their name. Old money types. They’re well aware of the “dumb VC” vibe that just throws money after hype. The finance folks I’m talking about are…

And what is it that you believe about these old money types' knowledge of AI and why is it that you believe it?

I hate to break it to you, but this is besides the point.

The marginal investor is the price setter, you, I and everyone else are just price takers in the market.

If enough marginal investors decide assets are over-valued, you have no choice but to accept it.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#602

Post by cgio » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:16 PM UTC

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36

blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

I think you partially answer to yourself though. Is the value in the depreciating chips, or in the huge datacenters, with cooling, energy supply, at such scale etc. ?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#603

Post by jasonwatkinspdx » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:16 PM UTC

bialpio wrote: post #560

SoftTalker wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data centers built in 1998 don't have nearly enough power or cooling capacity to run today's infrastructure. I'd be surprised if very many of them are even still in use. Cheaper to build new than upgrade.

How come? I'd expect that efficiency gains would lower power and thus cooling demands - are we packing more servers into the same space now or losing those gains elsewhere?

Power limitations are a big deal. I haven't shopped for datacenter cages since web 2.0, but even back then it was a significant issue. Lots of places couldn't give you more than a few kw per rack. State of the art servers can be 2kw each, so you start pushing 60kw per rack. Re rigging a decades old data center for that isn't trivial. Remember you need not just the raw power but cooling, backup generator capacity, enough battery to cover the transition, etc.

It's hugely expensive, which is why the big cloud infrastructure companies have spent so much on optimizing every detail they can.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#604

Post by m000 » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:24 PM UTC

simianwords wrote: post #401

abenga wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we are counting people's wealth in significant fractions of a trillion dollars and young people around the world cannot afford homes no more?

Prices of houses increased but others decreased. Life expectancy increased, consumption increased.

Consumption of overpriced crap, a.k.a. the lipstick effect [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_effect

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#605

Post by stinkbeetle » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:35 PM UTC

simianwords wrote: post #398

stinkbeetle wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You appear to be incapable of developing a coherent point that addresses what I wrote. "They" is not blame, it is observation. The bird is flying. I am not "blaming" the bird for flying, it just is.

The difference between an observation and blame is, blame implies moral judgement and the implication that "it ought to be different". It is clear from this post and other posts that this is your agenda. If you don't claim that it ought to be different, what are you arguing about?

You're the one arguing!! What TF are you arguing about??

Why don't you start by explaining how "not everything is getting worse / some things are getting better" addresses in the slightest what I wrote, or somehow proves that what I wrote is wrong. That would be a good start.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#606

Post by stinkbeetle » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:37 PM UTC

akk0 wrote: post #387

stinkbeetle wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't want that, because it could lead to an uprising against them. They want us provided with the essentials in exchange for being dutiful workers, so we have something to lose. Everyone should live in pods stacked together, eat insects, not drive our own automobiles around or fly places, we should be able to get our entertainment and everything to keep ourselves happy from their subscription entertainment s…

I'd actually love to eat insects but to my dismay I found out they're actually really expensive...

None of this was ever intended to be cheap for you.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#607

Post by stinkbeetle » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:39 PM UTC

azan_ wrote: post #403

stinkbeetle wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't want that, because it could lead to an uprising against them. They want us provided with the essentials in exchange for being dutiful workers, so we have something to lose. Everyone should live in pods stacked together, eat insects, not drive our own automobiles around or fly places, we should be able to get our entertainment and everything to keep ourselves happy from their subscription entertainment s…

> Everyone should live in pods stacked together, eat insects, not drive our own automobiles around or fly places, we should be able to get our entertainment and everything to keep ourselves happy from their subscription entertainment services. Yes of course capitalists love when economy is bad. Sorry, these dystopic visions do not pass even simplest smell test.

The economy won't be bad. The numbers will look good for them. Also they aren't capitalists. Try to keep up.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#608

Post by baobun » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:44 PM UTC

Loughla wrote: post #399

baobun wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The writing is a mandatory part of the learning process. Outsourcing it to tools is skipping and cheating. Nothing new here. It was the same when the tool was your buddy or upwork before LLMs. Banning advanced graph calculators on undergrad math exams is not because "they don't want to use new tools", either.

Sure but there's also a continuum of practice between banning outright and letting the students use llm's to just write for them. Use it as a peer review. Use it during brainstorming. Use it to clarify ambiguous thoughts. Use it to challenge your arguments and poke holes in your assumptions.

Are the examples you mentioned actually banned, as opposed to not actively used in classes? I'd think even where LLMs don't belong in the curriculum, self-studies in various forms as complimentary to the curriculum wouldn't be any of the teachers business?

BTW if you haven't, I encourage reading this.

https://zenodo.org/records/17065099

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#609

Post by stinkbeetle » Sat, Oct 04, 2025, 11:52 PM UTC

akimbostrawman wrote: post #392

stinkbeetle wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't want that, because it could lead to an uprising against them. They want us provided with the essentials in exchange for being dutiful workers, so we have something to lose. Everyone should live in pods stacked together, eat insects, not drive our own automobiles around or fly places, we should be able to get our entertainment and everything to keep ourselves happy from their subscription entertainment s…

don't forget the dismantling of the local community and family identity to make people reliant on the government preventing resistance by division.

I suspect that's beyond what the Hackernews crowd can cope with contemplating. Billionaires bad except on that subject in which case billionaires good and working class bad.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#610

Post by AngryData » Sun, Oct 05, 2025, 1:04 AM UTC

scotty79 wrote: post #314

AngryData wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or use any of the wonders of military technology invented in the last 200 years to take back society. These fuckers have lived in prosperity for so long that they don't even think it is possible. But so many people throughout history thought they were untouchable until the masses decided they had enough of their shit. Kings with professional armies, full plate knights, men with cannons, mens with guns, machine guns,…

When unrest happens the military sides with the ones that give better hopes of keeping the stream of money that funds the army flowing. It sides with the poor only if the powerful (gov) are hopelessly inept at gathering money. If there's a chance that current civilian power can reform and keep collecting the money from the people and funding the army then the army sides with them and help quell the rebellion. Those w…

Im not talking about the military siding with the people, im talking about the military's side not being enough to prevent the people from rising up and taking down whoever is in power. Militaries require logistics, random people do not. Military needs a government or people to follow for direction, masses of angry people do not.

Every time a government or military force has decided they were unstoppable or untouchable, history has proven them wrong. Hell we spent 2 decades in Iraq and Afganistan with the most powerful military and military tech the world has ever known backed by the strongest economy in the world against guys with 60+ year old bolt actions and guns filed out by hand in caves living in mostly desert landscapes, and we still ended up abandoning it because it was too costly. How would the military fair any better against the best armed population in the world with direct access to their supplying economy and logistics networks?

Yeah sure masses of people aren't making aircraft carriers, but you don't need aircarft carriers to win a war at home. We have modern engineering and chemistry text books in every library across the US that will tell you how military technology works and its flaws, what technology you can utilize find or make yourself, and a supply of nearly any material someone could possibly want or need sitting in scrapyards across the nation.